App State vs Duke Picks and Odds (Dec.16)

• Duke is a 20.5-point favorite over App State on Thursday
• App State is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six
• Read below for analysis and a betting prediction

No. 2 Duke (8-1) is a 20.5-point home favorite over Appalachian State on Thursday at 7 pm ET on ESPN2. The Blue Devils will play their second  game in three nights after handling South Carolina State 103-62 as a 36.5-point favorite on Tuesday.

Appalachian State (6-5) will play its first Power 6 opponent this season. The teams have played once before, when the Blue Devils took a 35-point home victory on Nov. 26, 2016. Their scheduled game last season was canceled because of Covid-19.

App State vs Duke Odds

Odds from FanDuel on Dec. 15.

Duke’s Moore Gives More

Surrounded by a group ballyhooed newcomers, holdover junior forward 6’5 Wendell Moore Jr. has stepped into a leading role for the Blue Devils in the first six weeks.

Moore is averaging 16.0 points, 6.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game, and he is the only player in NCAA Division I to reach all those plateaus while shooting at least 50 percent from the floor. He is shooting 56.7 percent and has made 12 of 36 three-pointers while averaging 31.3 minutes per game. Only sophomore point guard Jeremy Roach is playing more.

Moore played only 23 minutes in the South Carolina State blowout, and no starter played more than 27 in what was expected to be the first of four games in eight days. Freshman forward 6’6 A.J. Griffin had 19 points, four rebounds and four assists in 22 minutes off the bench, a testament to Duke’s depth.

Freshman forward 6’10 Paolo Banchero (17.1) and freshman guard 6’4 Trevor Keels (12.1) are Duke’s other double-digit scorers, and sophomore center 7′ Mark Williams (9.7) and sophomore guard 6′ Roach (9.0) are right behind.

Banchero is averaging 7.2 rebounds, Williams is averaging 6.3 and Keels is at 6.0. Banchero had 12 points, seven rebounds and six assists against South Carolina State.

Marquette transfer forward 6’9 Theo John, who has fit into a reserve role, missed the South Carolina State game with what the school called a back injury. John is averaging 3.8 points and 3.3 rebounds in 15.3 minutes per game.

The rotation has not been affected otherwise. Duke has started the same lineup in its first nine games, and with Gonzaga and Seton Hall are one of three teams with multiple victories over teams in the AP top 10.

Duke is No. 7 in the KenPom adjusted efficiency margin, and it is one of three teams with offensive and defensive efficiency ratings in the top 15. Baylor and Houston are the others. Duke is third in Division I with. a 1,91:1 assist:turnover ratio and is 13th wth a plus-5.8 turnover margin.

Duke’s Light Week

After an early schedule that included spotlight games against No. 15 Kentucky, No. 5 Gonzaga and No. 21 Ohio State, the Blue Devils planned a soft landing planned for its return after two weeks off in preparation for ACC play.

Appalachian State is Duke’s second opponent in what was to be a three-State week. The Blue Devils rolled over South Carolina State on Tuesday, but their scheduled home game against Cleveland State on Saturday was canceled on Wednesday because of Covid issues in the Cleveland State program. Duke is seeking another opponent. Cleveland State was to get $90,000 for the game.

Eight different Blue Devils hit at least one three-pointer tonight vs. SC State, tying a school record.

Had been set four previous times:
12/5/17 vs St. Francis (Pa)
11/14/14 vs Presbyterian
2/26/04 vs Valparaiso
11/23/02 vs Army#DukeMBBStats

— #DukeMBBStats (@DukeMBBStats) December 15, 2021

Duke will play host to Virginia Tech in its the ACC opener on Dec. 22. The Blue Devils are the only team that have not played a conference game this season. Appalachian State is ranked No. 174 in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin. South Carolina State is No. 345.

Mountaineers Get Ambitious

Appalachian State has played a schedule representative to its position as a contender in the Sun Belt Conference, but this is something else again.

The Mountaineers, No. 174 in Ken Pom adjusted efficiency, have lost to the two highest-rated KenPom teams they have faced this season, 65-53 at Iona (No. 103) in the season opener and 65-53 to Vermont (102) in the fifth-place game of the neutral site Gulf Coast Showcase in Estero, Fa. on Nov. 24.

Highlights from our home victory over Erskine last night!#TakeTheStairs pic.twitter.com/5NjBngFbYh

— App State Basketball (@AppStateMBB) December 14, 2021

Senior guard 6’3 Adrian Delph leads the Mountaineers with a 15.8 scoring average and is second with 5.1 rebounds. He averages six 3-point attempts and 2.3 makes per game, and he can get hot. Delph had a career-high 39 points and seven threes in a loss to Delaware in the Gulf Coast tournament.

The Mountaineers play at one of the slowest paces in Division I,  with 65 possessions per game as opposed to Duke’s 71, and in large part because of that are giving up only 58 points per game. Opponents are shooting 39.3 percent.

The wild card here is now much rest Coach K wants to give his regulars before ACC play begins in six days, but Duke is so talented and so deep that it should be able to manage the slower pace and distance shooting that Appalachian State promises.

The pick: Duke -20.5 (-110)

The post App State vs Duke Picks and Odds (Dec.16) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Source: https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/ncaab/app-state-vs-duke-picks-odds-december16/