[ASL14] Ro16 Preview Pt1: The Thrills

With the end of the Ro24 we were left with a strong pool of 12 qualifers and the seeded 4 of the Defending Champion Light, the 3rd/4th places of Bisu and Soma and finally the Wildcard winner Action. A wacky but totally on brand for the ASL Ro16 Group selection later and we are left with groups that were made to favor no one and groups that were made to favor one person, both such groups are represented in here, but is it really all that it seems?

The Beast, The Monster, The Pretty Boy and The Clown

Light is one of the best Bo1 players and he can get great momentum once he wins just one game. Remember those winnersleague days in the KeSPA era? Him (and Sea) pretty much solo carried MBC Game after Bisu transfered to SKT1 and he kept up this trend ever since. Any time I tuned into KCM’s Race Survival and Light was playing, he was usually wrecking face, stomping his way to (almost) killing everyone once he gets that first win. He is like the juggernaut in that regard, once he has that little momentum it keeps growing and he just keeps on going and becomes nearly unstoppable. He is the clear top contender for this group even for that reason alone.

Mong is a great player, but he hasn’t been performing that well in that last 2-3 years. I’d say he got kind of lucky with his Ro24 group that allowed him to advance to the Ro16. That said, I don’t think you can ever count him out from reaching Ro8. Once you have seen someone’s greatness, it will always stay somewhere in the back of your mind. You sort of hunger for it to return. You want to see a player perform at his best capability, you root for that. It creates excitement. Just look at all the Jaedong fans out there, it’s a prime example of this. Mong is known to be a macro god. When he can get into mid game without being shaken up, i.e. doesn’t suffer worker losses, his chances to win will just grow exponentially.

Now about BarrackS. Honestly Barracks was never really successful and like Mong I’d say he got kind of lucky with his Ro24 opponents. He has that charisma he is often credited for, but good looks alone won’t make you win games. Unlike Mong, I would say he did increase his skill level over the past 2 years, but he still really needs to step it up if he wants to play with the big boys in Ro8.

Finally Shine. Oh boy. The bag of builds. Arguably my favorite Zerg, at least the one I always love to root for.
His builds are just so make or break. To be fair, from a viewer’s perspective, his builds often don’t seem optimized enough, which ironically makes it kind of more exciting to see if he can pull it off. When his build “breaks”, he just keeps on trucking and simply goes for the next make or break follow up. It can create a total nailbiter of a game or simply be as boring and disappointing as can be. When Shine’s build is – or close to – optimized, he can beat all the greats, including Flash. Now the question becomes: Can Shine beat Light? The current reigning ASL champ. If Light has a bad day I can see it happening. Shine will cheese Light and get enough advantage to end it right there and then or either kill him with his follow up all in gimmick. I find that chance so slim, that I’m hoping for Shine to go for a build focused on mid game instead. Light is simply too solid to be caught off guard in the early game.

Light and Shine are expected to advance. I want them to. Shine sort of has to perform after killing off the fan favorite Jaedong. His build vs Snow in previous round had potential, but it simply wasn’t polished enough and turned into a complete disaster. I expect the same thing to happen if when he has to fight Light. Versus Mong and/or BarrackS however, I can see it work in his favor. Even though Shine is a dad – and thus may not be able to practice as much and focused – it’s worth noting he only has to practice ZvT for this round where as for the Terrans it makes more sense to focus their practice on TvT for this round. And you know what? I would not be too surprised if Shine opts to play one standard ZvT here, not vs Light though!

Instead of predicting the final scores; by instinct and bias:
Light has a significant chance to advance, 95+%
Shine close to 60%
Mong and BarrackS have about a 30% chance, which I completely base on Shine faultering.

Anyway, going by above mentioned percentages it’s rather easy to put those into scores ^^
Light advances 2-0
Shine advances 2-1
Mong and BarrackS get eliminated.

Team Killers, One Filler

Group B is represented by Bisu, sSak, Rush, and BeSt. Three of these players are from the former team, SKT1. Based on the selections by Bisu, he shows he not only wants the easiest matches possible for himself but has little regard for his former teammates. Bisu has an astounding record against his ex-SKT teammates and rarely loses against them. His picks most likely come from a cross of lower skills level from his opponents, higher confidence in himself, and years of knowledge from training with them. However, Bisu still has one of the toughest Terran’s in his group. Rush has held a round of 16 spot for many seasons now and has returned looking as strong as ever.

Bisu faces off against sSak first. SSak has historically struggled to advance far in the ASL. Compounding that with his low PvT winrate, his success in this group becomes problematic. This first series is a best of 1 on Vermeer, which does bring a small advantage to Terran players. Its central area of the map has been designed well for tanks to cut quadrants up into areas of Terran control. Protoss has shown a lot of issues going with heavy gateway armies in the Round of 24. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Bisu just grab three close bases and tech straight to Carriers. Without any major blunders, this series will go to Bisu.

Rush is a reliable Terran in the group stages of the tournament. He has monstrous TvP and he too gets the map advantage of Vermeer. Best has been a top 3 PvT player for the past 5 years, but that hasn’t translated into the Afreeca tournaments. BeSt is far more likely to go for a gateway style build, which is quite frankly akin to throwing your units into a wood chipper on this map. It’s not an easy task to predict who will win, but Rush has higher odds.

Bisu matches up with Rush in the winners match. They hold a 50% winrate against each other in recent matches. What Bisu holds, is momentum. Last season, Bisu took down JyJ and challenged Light in way that no other opponent could. Season 13 showed a Bisu who regained the mental fortitude that was lost to him half a decade ago. If Bisu can reduce sloppy mistakes and improve his micro back to a Bisu-level standard, then he can win this best of 3. Rush on the other hand hasn’t ever been eliminated at the hands of a Protoss player let alone barely ever loses. If Bisu’s gameplan is successful he will win here, but Rush cannot be counted out. This prediction, must be left up to a coinflip. Of course, the only coins I own have Bisu’s face on both sides. Bisu advances first.

sSak has a 68% winrate in recent matches versus Protoss. That would be great, but all his wins are against B-level players. Meanwhile, Best has a 56% winrate and he’s winning or tie-ing against the absolute best Terran players. He’s even 6-6 against Rush as of late. sSak has to endure a best of 3 series which will be very difficult for a player of his caliber to win. BeSt will come out on top here.

The player mentality issue is severe for Best. His wall usually hits at the round of 8, but he’s certainly hit it earlier before. Having to face off against Rush is a tough task. Rush doesn’t seem to be affected by (or make) mistakes in game or by taking losses. If BeSt loses even one game in this series, he is highly likely to lose the entire thing. It almost makes this series a best of 2 for Rush. He just needs that one win to mentally break down BeSt. Rush is thriving online too. He has a 60% winrate with 0 losing records against any Protoss player over the past month. Rush will ultimately win this series and put himself in a position to lose to another Zerg down the line.

Bisu and Rush Advance To The Ro8!

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