College Football Betting for Week 5: Sure Losers

The Oregon Ducks have bounced back from the shellacking they took in Week 1 from the Georgia Buldogs. In their next three games (all wins), they have stacked up 155 points. Seventy of those came against Eastern Washington, but the other 85 came in wins over then-#12 BYU at home and Washington State on the road. The Ducks held off Washington state, 44-41, to move to 1-0 in Pac-12 play, and now they prepare for a home date with the Stanford Cardinal. USC is another Pac-12 team with a perfect conference record, but they had to mount a late comeback to beat Oregon State on the road, 17-14. Looking ahead to Week 5, we have a couple more college football betting suggestions for you to consider.

NCAA News: Sure Losers for Week 5

 

Saturday, October 1

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#9 Oklahoma State Cowboys (+1.5) at #16 Baylor Bears
(3:30 pm ET, FOX)

Oklahoma State comes with a perfect 3-0 record but has had a soft start to 2022, with their toughest opponent ranked #86 in the CBS Sports 131 Rankings. Their wins over Central Michigan, Arizona State and Arkansas-Pine Bluff were all emphatic, but they all came at home, and they all came against teams that are not very good. Yes, Arizona State is in a Power Five conference, but they have been a dumpster fire of a program and just let Herm Edwards go after a tumultuous tenure. Oklahoma State comes out of the bye week ready to open conference play against a Baylor team that ruined their College Football Playoff hopes in the Pac-12 Championship a year ago. Also, Spencer Sanders only threw 12 interceptions last year, but seven came in the two games against Baylor.

Baylor is 2-1 after losing to BYU in double overtime, but they did bounce back to open conference play with a 31-24 win at Iowa State last week. Their cupcake games have all been big routs, including a 59-point win over Albany and a 35-point win over Texas State. In the win at Iowa State, Blake Shapen went 19 of 26 for 238 yards and three touchdowns, completing passes to 11 different receivers. Gavin Holmes had a big day with three receptions for 92 yards, including a 38-yard score in the fourth period. The Baylor defense held Iowa State to just 2.4 yards per carry and snagged two interceptions. Iowa State did rally with 10 points in the last 7:30 of the game, but they could not pick up their onside kick with 55 seconds left. If Baylor can start as strong at home against Oklahoma State, they should be able to get another Pac-12 win and get the inside track to the conference championship. Baylor to win and cover.

Colorado Buffaloes (+17) at Arizona Wildcats
(9:30 pm ET, Pac-12 Network)

Arizona started 2022 with a somewhat impressive win at San Diego State. The win came by 18 against a MWC team that has visions of punching above its weight. However, the Wildcats fell back to earth by losing at home to Mississippi State, 39-17. They barely held off FCS opponent North Dakota State in Week 3 before opening Pac-12 play with a thud, losing, 49-31 at Cal last week. Now they return to host Colorado and have opened as 17-point favorites.

Colorado comes in with an 0-4 record and has permitted at least 38 points in each game while scoring no more than 17, with margins of defeat of 25 (TCU), 31 (Air Force), 42 (Minnesota) and 28 (UCLA). Of these four teams, only TCU and Minnesota have shown real promise on offense this year, and Minnesota just went to Michigan State and delivered a rout that should have the Golden Gophers in the Top 25. However, a 17-point line might be on the high side. After all, Arizona gave up 49 points to a Cal team that did hang 34 on FCS opponent UC-Davis but only managed 20 against UNLV and 17 against Notre Dame. So Colorado should be able to move the ball and score points. I think Arizona wins this game, but 17 points is too many to give up on this one. Colorado to cover.

 

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