Louisville vs Michigan State Odds, Lines and Spread (Dec. 1)

  • No. 22 Michigan State is a 5.5-point favorite against Louisville on Wednesday evening
  • Louisville will play its first true road game
  • Read below for analysis and a betting prediction

No. 22 Michigan State (5-2) is a 5.5-point home favorite at Louisville on Wednesday at 7:15 pm ET on ESPN as part of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge. The Big Ten won four of the first games in the three-day, 14-game event.

Louisville (5-1) coach Chris Mack will be on the bench for the first time this season. The school suspended Mack for the first six games  for failing to follow school policy in the handling of former assistant Dino Gaudio’s extortion attempt.

Louisville vs Michigan State Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Louisville Cardinals +188 +5.5 (-110) Over 133.5 (-110)
Michigan State Spartans -230 -5.5 (-110) Under 133.5 (-110)

Odds from FanDuel on Nov. 30

Michigan State has played one of the most difficult early-season schedules and come out the other end at 5-2, losing only a pair of neutral-site games to No. 4. Baylor in the championship game of the Battle 4 Atlantis in Jamaica the last time out and to No. 8 Kansas in the season-opening Champions Classic on Nov. 9. Baylor and Kansas are 3-4 in KenPom’s most recent adjusted efficiency margin, behind Gonzaga and Purdue.

Louisville beat KenPom No. 41 Mississippi State and No. 46 Maryland to win the Baha Mar Bahamas Championship in Nassau, the Bahamas. The Cardinals’ only loss was to Furman in overtime in the second game of the season.

Spartans Play Them Close

Michigan State overcame a nine-point deficit to beat Loyola 63-61 in the first round of the Battle 4 Atlantis and scored the final nine points of the game to beat No. 17 UConn 64-60 in the semifinals before its five-game winning steak was broken in a 75-58 loss to Baylor last Friday.

Senior 6’8 forward Gabe Brown had a 16-point, 10-rebound double-double against Loyola and leads the Spartans with a 13.4 scoring average, part of a big frontline that includes 7′ senior Marcus Bingham Jr. (10.9 points, 7.1 rebounds) and 6’7 junior Malik Hall (9.0, 4.9).

Hall, who replaced Joey Hauser in the starting lineup in the fourth game, had a career-high 24 points against Loyola, and Bingham had his first career double-double — 19 [points, 12 rebounds — in an 83-59 victory over Eastern Michigan on Nov. 21.  Bingham has 19 blocked shots in the last four games.

Point guard Tyson Walker, who averaged 18.8 points a game and was the Colonial Athletic Association’s defensive player of the year in 2020-21, is still feeling his way through the transition. He is averaging 5.6. points and 4.0 assists, with 28 assists and 20 turnovers.

Cardinals’ New Approach

Louisville added three backcourt transfers while adopting a more an analytics-driven offensive approach this season, and Florida transfer 6’3 shooting guard Noah Locke has fit right in. Locke is averaging at team-high 13 points per game and has had three green light from distance, where he is 15 of 43, 34.90 percent.

Shooting has been an issue — the Cardinals are 42.5 percent from the field and 29.8 from three-point range, although they have overcome that with a defense that is holding teams to 37.4 shooting, among the best in Division I.

Senior 6’11 post Malik Williams, who played only three games a year ago because of ankle and foot injuries, is averaging 8.0 points and 9.8 rebounds, one of five players averaging between seven and nine points a game. Williams was the Baha Mar MVP after getting 13 points, 12 rebounds and career-high four steals in the championship game against Maryland.

Five different player have led the Cardinals in scoring.

On the Glass

Michigan State is back to its normal Tom Izzo rebounding rate  on the backboards so far this season with a plus-10.0 rebounding margin, which ranks No. 20 in NCAA Division I.

The Spartans did not shoot well a year ago, but their downfall a year ago (a first-round loss to UCLA in the NCAA tournament) had a lot to do with their abnormally low plus-3.1 rebound margin. They were a plus-7.5 in 2019-20 and a plus-8.8 in 2018-19. They were outrebounded 27-25 by Baylor.

Louisville also knows how to go get it — the Cardinals have a plus-7.6 rebounding margin.

Mack is Back

The Cardinals won five of six games while assistant coach Mike Pegues, a long-time Mack associate, was in charge. The Cardinals beat Mississippi State and Maryland to win the Baha Mar Basketball Bahamas Championship in Nassau, the Bahamas.

Mack returned to at practice Monday for the first time since Nov. 8 after meeting with his staff Sunday night and his players Monday morning. He was suspended for actions taken after former assistant coach Gaudio, when told his contract would not be renewed,  threatened to make public NCAA violations committed in the program.

By the Numbers

Michigan State is No. 26 in the KenPom adjusted efficiency margin. Louisville is 39th. The Spartans are 4-3 ATS, 2-0 as a home favorite. Louisville is 3-3 ATS. Louisville leads the season series 6-5, going 3-0 at home, 0-3 on the road and 3-2 at neutral sites. The teams have not met since 2008.

The Spartans have played a much more difficult, being at home never hurts, and the Big Ten is off to a good start in the Challenge.

The pick: Michigan State -5.5 (-110)

The post Louisville vs Michigan State Odds, Lines and Spread (Dec. 1) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Source: https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/ncaab/louisville-vs-michigan-state-odds-lines-spread-december1/

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