NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 16 – SBD Formula is 42-26-2 This Season

• Week 16 of the 2021 NFL season continues Saturday, December 25th
• The SBD Formula is a red-hot 42-26-2 against the spread through 15 weeks
• Read below for analysis on the Week 16 NFL slate, plus against the spread picks for every game based on the SBD Formula

Another week, another positive ROI for the SBD Formula. A 3-2 record in Week 15 on its best bets against the spread now moves the SBD Formula to 42-26-2 this season. For those of you keeping track at home, that’s a 61.7% success rate, and there’s not a bettor on earth that wouldn’t love to boast a record that strong.

We’ve nailed seven of our last nine best bets against the spread in this column by trusting the SBD Formula’s projections, and we’ll look to keep the momentum rolling in Week 16.

Week 16 Against the Spread Picks

Odds as of Dec. 23rd at DraftKings and FanDuel.

Our betting card starts in Foxborough, for arguably the most compelling game on the Week 16 slate. The New England Patriots host the Buffalo Bills, with the AFC East lead on the line.

Bills vs Patriots Pick Against the Spread

The Pats are a 2.5-point favorite, a line that the SBD Formula completely disagrees with. Not only is the SBD Formula predicting a Bills cover, it’s also predicting an outright Buffalo victory.

My @SBD formula keeps pumping out upsets too!!

Texans✅
Giants❌

1-1 today (+1.2 units)

Still 2 more upset picks this week below

Formula is ?33-26? on upset picks this season
?+25.38 units? https://t.co/tFQ2ozEnx3

— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) December 20, 2021

New England won the first matchup of the season between these two division rivals, but it’s hard to take too much from that game given it was played in a windstorm.

Don’t get me wrong, there’s plenty of reasons not to like the Bills in this spot. Buffalo is 4-5 in its past nine, and haven’t won consecutive games since early October. Josh Allen is 2-4 all-time versus the Pats, and will be missing two of his top four receivers (Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley) due to COVID.

However, it’s possible that New England is simply not as good as its 9-5 record. The Pats were thoroughly outplayed in Week 14 by Indianapolis and proved they are not built to play from behind. Just three of New England’s nine wins have come against teams with a record above .500, one of which was against the aforementioned Bills in horrendous conditions, and another was versus a Tennessee squad missing Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Julio Jones.

With calm conditions in store for Sunday, we’ll likely see a Buffalo offense that resembles the 31 points they scored last week versus Carolina’s 10th ranked defense per DVOA, not what we saw against the Pats in Week 13 in gale force winds.

Pick: Buffalo Bills (+2.5), 1 unit

Ravens vs Bengals Pick Against the Spread

Why tout one upset, when you can tout multiple ones. The Baltimore Ravens are 3-point underdogs in Cincinnati this weekend, and the SBD Formula isn’t buying it. The SBD Formula has the Ravens cruising to a lopsided 21 point upset victory, making this game the biggest discrepancy of the week.

My @SBD formula just keeps coming through for us

It goes 3-1 on its top ATS picks for Week 15 – WFT still to come

Formula is 42-25-2 on its top ATS picks for the season https://t.co/s9640lxqf5

— Matt McEwan (@SBD_Matt) December 20, 2021

Much like the Bills, this is a revenge game for the Ravens. Baltimore was waxed by the Bengals 41-17 earlier this season, but Cincy’s offense has gone cold over the last few weeks. The Bengals are averaging just 19 points per game over their past three contests, and put up only 15 in last week’s victory over Denver.

"I've got the ultimate confidence in the guys in this building… Biggest game of the year. Hope the fans can make it out. This is a playoff game. It's going to be huge. We've got to go out there and do whatever we can to take care of business." Joe Mixon #RuleTheJungle

— Mike Petraglia (@Trags) December 23, 2021

Joe Burrow shredded the Ravens in their first matchup, but his play has been ticking down ever since. Burrow has thrown only 6 TD passes over the past six games, compared to 5 INT. He’s tied for the league lead in interceptions with 14, and has taken a league-high 44 sacks.

On the other side of the ball, Lamar Jackson’s status is up in the air due to an ankle injury, but bettors should have plenty of confidence in Tyler Huntley if he makes his second straight start. The undrafted QB threw two touchdown passes and ran for two more last week (something Jackson has never done), easily covering the spread at home versus Green Bay, and nearly pulling off the outright upset.

#Ravens QB Tyler Huntley in a losing effort: 28/40, 215 passing yards, 73 rushing yards, 4 total TDs, 0 turnovers.

With all the high-profile injuries, the fact Baltimore is in it to the very end is ridiculous. There's no quit in them.

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 20, 2021

Baltimore has a strong track record as an underdog under John Harbaugh, especially in December. Harbaugh’s Ravens are 31-21 against the spread as a ‘dog during his tenure, including 12-1-2 ATS from Week 10 on in divisional road games as an underdog.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens (+3), 1 unit

Broncos vs Raiders Pick Against the Spread

The upset selections don’t stop there. The Las Vegas Raiders are 1-point home ‘dogs to the Broncos on Sunday, and the SBD Formula likes an outright Vegas victory.

Let’s not kid ourselves, the Raiders are no contender but neither is Denver with Drew Lock under center. Lock will start for the injured Teddy Bridgewater, something Bronco fans can’t be thrilled about.

The Drew Lock experience in one play. pic.twitter.com/Gd9v9XNn5o

— Joe Rowles (@JoRo_NFL) December 19, 2021

Lock is 4-9 in his past 13 starts, with more turnovers (19) than touchdown passes (15). His teams have scored 21 points or less in nine of those starts, and last year he had the worst passer rating among starting QB’s.

This season, Lock has picked up right where he left off. He’s completing just 55% of his passes in limited duty, with an adjusted yards per attempt of only 5.8. My  favorite bet for this game is under 41.5, but Las Vegas +1 is a fine secondary option.

Pick: Las Vegas Raiders +1, 1 unit

The post NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 16 – SBD Formula is 42-26-2 This Season appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

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