NFL Thanksgiving Game: Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints Betting Preview

The NFL Thanksgiving tripleheader comes to an end Saturday night as the Buffalo Bills (6-4) visit the New Orleans Saints (5-5). Buffalo has to travel on a short week after getting run out of their own stadium, 41-15, by the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. New Orleans looks to rebound after seeing their normally stout defense shredded by the run-heavy approach of the Philadelphia Eagles, who rolled, 40-29, at home on Sunday. The game opened at Buffalo -4.5 before moving quickly in the Bills’ direction. Perhaps this has to do with the fact that the Saints still have backup Trevor Siemian at quarterback, but given the way the Bills’ offense has struggled in two of their last three games, managing six points against Jacksonville and 15 points against Indy, the shift is definitely interesting.

Check out our NFL betting thoughts on this matchup.

 

NFL Thanksgiving Preview: Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints (Thursday, November 25)

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When: Thursday, November 25, 2021, 8:20 pm ET
Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
TV: NBC
Radio: Westwood One
Live Stream: Hulu
NFL Odds: Buffalo -6 / O/U 45.5 // Buffalo -250 / New Orleans +205

Why should you bet on the Bills?

The Bills have had some absolutely emphatic wins, including victories over the Jets, Texans and Dolphins (twice). They have had some head-scratching losses, including the opener against Pittsburgh and the setback in Jacksonville. The home embarrassment against Indianapolis came with absolutely no explanation, although the fact that the Bills turned the ball over four times, with the first three ending up in Indianapolis touchdowns, played a role.

So did the fact that the Buffalo rushing defense apparently decided not to come to the game. Colts tailback Jonathan Taylor had five touchdowns on the day. Josh Allen threw a pair of touchdown passes to Stefon Diggs, as their connection continues to build. However, Allen also threw a pair of interceptions. On the day, he was 21 of 35 for 200 yards, and it did not help that he had to run for his life all day long. In games when Allen has a turnover, his career record is now 17-17.

Why should you put your money on the Saints?

New Orleans has trended downward ever since losing Jameis Winston for the season with a blown ACL. They won the game in which he was injured, taking advantage of some Tom Brady turnovers to beat the Buccaneers at home, but since then they have lost three in a row. Trevor Siemian had three touchdown passes against Philadelphia on Sunday, and he ran for another touchdown, but he also threw a pair of interceptions. It didn’t help that the team was missing four-time Pro Bowl tailback Alvin Kamara and both offensive tackles – and all three remain questionable ahead of Thursday’s game.

The Saints did score 15 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, turning a 33-7 deficit into a 33-22 game, but then Jalen Hurts scrambled for a 24-yard Eagles touchdown. Their passing defense has become a liability, as they permit 267 passing yards per game, 21st in the NFL. If you like the Saints, you see that defense grabbing a couple of early turnovers and then seizing the momentum, as they did against Tampa Bay.

Final Score and Betting Prediction

I see Buffalo bringing better ball security on Thursday than they did on Sunday, but it is hard to turn around from a Sunday game and play on Thursday night on the road. New Orleans has a number of tricks that they can play on defense, and Sean Payton is one of the league’s best defensive minds. I see the Bills struggling once again, and while they might pull out the win late, I’m not sure they cover a six-point spread. I predict a final score of Buffalo 23, New Orleans 20.

Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints: Bet the Game Today

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