NFL Week 10 Line Moves, NFL Week 11 Look Ahead Lines

Written by Watt_05

Just when we thought we were through the pandemic (no, this isn’t political) we’re starting to see it impact player availability in our weekly handicapping.  This serves as your friendly reminder to always keep tabs on the injury report up until kickoff for your favorite investments. 

We’ve broken down two NFL Week 10 games where the numbers should be on the move as we approach Sunday. Let’s keep this train on the tracks as we hit the mid-point of the season.

New Orleans Saints +3 (-110) @ Tennessee Titans

The Titans were -2.5 on the look-ahead number. However, after their outright victory at the Rams Sunday night combined with the Saints home loss, we saw this number move to -3.  The price is currently dancing around the field goal. Some shops even tipped their hand earlier this week heading towards a juiced 2.5.

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Alvin and the Chipmunks

The biggest news and injury info revolves around New Orleans star RB Alvin Kamara.  The Saints brought in 3 running backs Monday and Kamara has yet to practice this week.  Reports early Friday morning claim Sean Payton is preparing a game plan without Alvin Kamara. If he is ruled out, there could be a great opportunity to back the Saints at a much better number than +3, so stay on top of this. Even without Kamara, the Saints offensive line has shown an ability to move bodies in the trenches, ranking 8th in adjusted line yards.  New Orleans should have an advantage against a Titans defensive front ranking 28th in defensive rush success rate and 26th in adjusted line yards on defense.  Also keep tabs on Jeffrey Simmons and Harold Landry, neither practiced Wednesday or Thursday.

Selling Stock

Tennessee is the flavor of the month and rightfully so given four straight wins as an underdog.  Home triumphs against Buffalo and Kansas City with road wins at Indianapolis and Los Angeles might go down as the best four week stretch for any team this season.  However, this line is telling you all you need to know here.  A Trevor Siemian led Saints team off a home loss to Atlanta is ONLY catching 2.5/3 points with injury questions to their best offensive player.

Defensive Dominance

The Saints defense has shown an ability to swallow up offenses behind an elite defensive line and one of the best LB core’s in the NFL led by Demario Davis.  They are 1st and 8th in defensive rush and pass success rate, respectively. We wouldn’t be surprised to see them make the Titans 1-dimensional by taking away the run game.  Tennessee only accumulated 194 yards of offense at 3.4 yards per play against the Rams but were 3 for 3 in the red zone.  We might see this offense show what it really is moving forward without the services of Derrick Henry. 

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Detroit Lions +9 (-110) at Pittsburgh Steelers

It doesn’t get much uglier than this.  Detroit heads to Pittsburgh off their bye with a chance for their first win of the season. The Steelers are coming off a win that required a final drive by Big Ben to get in field goal range to slip by Chicago.  This number opened -9, climbed to -10 before it was quickly driven back to the original market open. 

Dead Cat Bounce

Let’s start with the Lions who should be much healthier off their bye.  It looks as though LT Taylor Decker will return which moves former LT Penei Sewell over to RT strengthening the entire unit.  The Lions also get back DL Kevin Strong and Da’Sahwn Hand (activated prior to the Eagles game), as well as slot corner AJ Parker.  There is also an outside shot CB Ifeatu Melifonwu gets activated on the early side of the 21-day window. Detroit recently signed WR Josh Reynolds who gets reunited with his former QB Jared Goff too.  All signs point to this being the best version of the Lions.

Steel City Soft

This handicap focuses on Pittsburgh’s flaws more than Detroit’s strengths.  Pittsburgh’s 31st in offensive success rate and bottom five in both Pass Block and Run Block Win Rate’s along the offensive line.  Chase Claypool is a long shot meaning James Washington becomes Pittsburgh’s #2.  Big Ben came out this week and told the media he has been suffering from a Pec/Shoulder injury for quite a few weeks and his inability to move around the pocket could give this Lions Pass rush an opportunity to cause some havoc (15th in adjusted sack rate).  Najee Harris randomly popped up on Thursday’s injury report with a foot injury for the first time all season. When an offense is limited and injured, laying nearly double digits is a dicey proposition.  I agree with the buy-point at +10 and could see this number continue to trickle down to Lions +7 by kickoff. 

Week 11 Look-Ahead Lines from FanDuel Sportsbook:

New England -3.5 at Atlanta

Detroit at Cleveland -10

San Francisco -6 at Jacksonville

Indianapolis at Buffalo -6.5

Miami -2.5 at NY Jets

Washington at Carolina -2

Baltimore -6 at Chicago

New Orleans -1 at Philadelphia

Houston at Tennessee -10

Green Bay -2.5 at Minnesota

Cincinnati at Las Vegas -1

Arizona at Seattle -1

Dallas at Kansas City -2.5

Pittsburgh at LA Chargers -3.5

New York Giants at Tampa Bay -12.5

Source: https://www.bettheboardpodcast.com/2021/11/12/nfl-week-10-line-moves-nfl-week-11-look-ahead-lines/