NFL Week 12: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

The road has not been a kind place for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season; their 7-3 record includes a 2-3 slate away from Raymond James Stadium, and their two road wins (over New England and Philadelphia) came by a combined eight points. Next up is a trip to Indianapolis to take on the Colts (6-5), who come in having won three in a row, five of six and six of eight — and with those two losses coming in overtime. Granted, one of the overtime losses, came after an epic fourth-quarter collapse in Baltimore, but the team has been on a roll since then, accentuated by a 41-15 rout of Buffalo last week. Can the Colts continue Tampa Bay’s road woes?

Let’s check out the latest NFL betting thoughts on this matchup.

NFL Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, November 28)

When: Sunday, November 28, 2021, 1:00 pm ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
TV: FOX
Radio: WXTB 97.9 FM Tampa / WFNI 107.5 FM Indianapolis
Live Stream: Hulu
NFL Odds: Tampa Bay -2.5 / O/U 51.5

Why should you bet on the Buccaneers?

If you look at Tampa Bay against the spread this season, they are just 4-6 — and they have not covered a spread away from home yet in 2021, going 0-5 so far. In fact, they have failed to cover by almost 10 points per contest. However, Indianapolis (7-4 ATS) is just .500 ATS at home.

I like Jonathan Taylor and the Colts’ running game, but the Buccaneers do well against the run. They only allow opponents to gain 24.3 percent of their yards on the ground, the second lowest percentage in the league right now. This could mean that the Colts would need more out of Carson Wentz, and the Bucs also mount a stiff pass rush, which has caused Wentz headaches in the past.

Tampa Bay also has Rob Gronkowski back from injury, which adds an element of danger to an already potent passing offense. Gronk has not put up gaudy numbers this year, but he has a knack for being in the right place at the right time for a late touchdown or a key first down, thanks to his longtime connection with Tom Brady.

Why should you put your money on the Colts?

An interesting metric about the Colts is that they put up 0.447 points per play, good for third in the NFL. No matter whether they play at home or on the road, that does not shift by more than 0.005. That may have to do with the team’s reliance on the running game, which tends to produce a steadier rhythm than a pass-heavy offense — just ask fans of Kansas City today or Green Bay during the heyday of Brett Favre. On defense, the Colts only permit 0.355 points per play at home, while the Buccaneers score 0.362 points per play on the road (although they lead the NFL with 0.465 points per play overall this season).

Once the Colts figured out that they should ride Jonathan Taylor and the running game, the offense has taken off. Carson Wentz has recovered from some early injuries, and while he has committed some bad turnovers this season (check the footage of the Tennessee overtime loss, for example), for the most part he has brought a steady hand to the offense. If you add in a fairly stout defense, then you have a recipe for success. If the Colts can put up some sustained drives against the Buccaneers, they can build the sort of lead that will make Tampa Bay have to take risks.

Final Score and Betting Prediction

I like what the Colts are doing, but I think they took advantage of some bad play by Buffalo last week, and Tampa Bay got back into a groove with their 30-10 whipping of the Giants last week. I predict a final score of Tampa Bay 23, Indianapolis 16.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts : Bet the Game Today

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