We forge ahead with the grind known as NFL season. Every week isn’t created equal and sometimes patience becomes a virtue. The first and only game we’ll breakdown for NFL Week 5 is the inter-conference battle in Las Vegas. The Bears head west with their 1st round pick Justin Fields officially anointed QB1. Our focus is in the trenches, specifically the battle that will take place when the Raiders have the ball.
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Chicago Bears +6 (-115) @ Las Vegas Raiders:
Las Vegas opened 6.5 point favorites on look ahead lines but the market couldn’t hold that price. The UNDER also caught some early money driving the price down from an opener of 45 to 44. Vegas didn’t exactly look crisp on Monday Night Football, meanwhile the Bears put together a solid offensive performance for the the first time in weeks against the “defeated” Detroit Lions.
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Trench Warfare
Anytime you break down a football game potential value can exist in the trenches. We’ve seen the Raiders really struggle on the offensive line this year. The team ranks 29th in Offensive Rush Success Rate which explains their ranking of 31st in run block win rate and 28 in adjusted line yards. The task gets no easier for Las Vegas this weekend against a strong front 4 of Chicago. The Bears lead the league in sacks with 15 and rank 9th in Defensive Rush Success Rate. Derek Carr has to be looking forward to the opportunity to prove the “haters” wrong after Joey Bosa so eloquently laid out the plan Los Angeles used for for roughing up the Raiders pivot. Rookie right tackle Alex Leatherwood should have his hands full slowing down Khalil Mack unless Leatherwood is officially kicked inside to guard. We could once again see Carr frustrated at the lack of talent and able bodies along his offensive line.
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Bears Bright Spot
The bright side for the Bears offense is the team is finally handing over the reigns to potential franchise QB Justin Fields. Bears fans and bettors can only hope the offense begins to look more dynamic with Bill Lazor assuming play calling duties. The big injury news out of Chicago is the loss of running back David Montgomery for 4-5 weeks. However, bettors shouldn’t overreact as Damian Williams has actually graded out better according to PFF and is more than capable of becoming the lead back. Fields is clearly more willing to push the ball downfield to Allen Robinson and Darnell Mooney; a perfect recipe against a suspect Raiders secondary. This number has toggled back and forth between 6 and 5.5 all week but I expect Bears money to enter the market and potentially drive the price to 4.5 or lower before kickoff.
Week 6 Look-Ahead Lines via FanDuel Sportsbook:
Tampa Bay -6.5 at Philadelphia
Miami -3 at Jacksonville
Green Bay -4.5 at Chicago
Kansas City -6.5 at Washington
Minnesota at Carolina -1
LA Chargers at Baltimore -3.5
Cincinnati -3.5 at Detroit
LA Rams -7 at NY Giants
Arizona at Cleveland -3
Las Vegas at Denver -2.5
Dallas -1 at New England
Seattle -3 at Pittsburgh
Buffalo -3.5 at Tennessee
