We’re faced with a…strange board this week…and that’s being kind! It was tough finding multiple games to breakdown given how much early week movement we saw on some of these totals. I was however able to locate a position that still offers value at the current number and should continue to see one way traffic. Also as we always do included are the Week 8 lines provided by FanDuel following the two breakdowns below!
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1H-Carolina @ NY Giants Under 21.5 (-120):
We saw this full game total open at 45 following Sunday’s results but by midday Tuesday we were already down to 43 at most shops. The 1H number opened at 21.5 and we’ve seen a tick down to 21/20.5 at many of the sharper outfits. Needless to say, there has been significant professional money on the UNDER in this bout between the Panthers and Giants at MetLife stadium.
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Panther Pounce
Carolina enters off 3 straight losses to Dallas, Philadelphia, and Minnesota. All indications suggest they’re going to be more committed to the run game moving forward per Coach Matt Rhule. Now I am not here to argue about that offering an optimal strategy but as an investor in this under it is music to my ears. Over the past three weeks Sam Darnold has been “poor” at best. He’s resorted back to being a turnover machine throwing 6 interceptions during the skid.
Not Just on Sam
The offensive line, as highlighted last week, is really struggling to protect him (30th in pass block win rate, 23rd in adjusted sack %), and the offensive woes across the board are on full display. This offense ranks 26th in overall success rate against a slate of defenses grading out in the Top 10 of easiest opponents. It looks like Pat Elflien will miss another game and slot receiver Terrace Marshall Jr. is likely out with a concussion. Even though this Giants defense has been a massive disappointment this season, I’m not sure Darnold and Co. can really exploit them if they’re going to make an effort to be more run-heavy against a talented front 4.
Giants Injury Bug
When looking at this Giants team it’s tough to see the light at the end of the tunnel with the way the injuries continue to accumulate. LT Andrew Thomas is now on IR. Both RB Saquon Barkley and WR Kenny Golladay have been downgraded to out joining WR’s Kadarius Toney and John Ross on the sidelines this week. We have another offensive line that is struggling, ranking 27th in pass block win rate and 31st in adjusted line yards facing a talented Front 7. Sure, Carolina’s defense may be a bit overrated but ranking #1 in pass rush win rate, 9th in adjusted line yards, and 4th in adjusted sack % isn’t just a fluke.
Secondary Strength
Combine that strong DL with the fact that CB CJ Henderson will be back for this one and an outside shot of a Stephon Gilmore sighting, its difficult to see where the G-Men are able to find success on the offensive side of the ball. With the full game total getting hammered through the key numbers of 45, 44, and now 43, taking some 1H Under 21.5-120 or 21(-110) certainly provides value as well as a great shot to beat the closing number. I’d expect to see this close 20.5/20 come Sunday at 1:00pm.
Week 8 Look-Ahead Lines via FanDuel Sportsbook):
Green Bay at Arizona -3.5
Miami at Buffalo -11.5
Carolina at Atlanta -1.5
Philadelphia -4 at Detroit
Tennessee at Indianapolis -2.5
LA Rams -14 at Houston
Cincinnati -4 at NY Jets
Pittsburgh at Cleveland -3
San Francisco -3.5 at Chicago
Jacksonville at Seattle -3.5
New England at LA Chargers -6
Washington at Denver -4
Tampa Bay -4 at New Orleans
Dallas -2.5 at Minnesota
NY Giants at Kansas City -12.5
Source: https://www.bettheboardpodcast.com/2021/10/22/nfl-week-7-market-moves/
