NFL Week 8 Line Moves, NFL Week 9 Look Ahead Lines

Written by Watt_05

We’ve got two positions on the board for NFL Week 8 that may be worth an investment before Sunday.  There are a pair of divisional clashes with totals on our mind as we inch closer to the mid-way point of the season. As always included are Week 9 lines via FanDuel for you to get out ahead, or reference on Sunday and Monday when markets re-open to compare pricing.

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Carolina Panthers Team Total Under 22.5 (-110):

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.  For the 3rd straight week we’ve seen professional money enter the market on a Carolina Panthers UNDER; both first half and full game.  The full game total opened 48 and was immediately bet down to the current number of 46.5.  We’re not going to piggyback numbers that have moved 1.5 points through the key of 47; chasing steam isn’t a long term winning strategy. Instead we’ll attack the derivative market to see if there is something of value.

Carolina Conundrum

Carolina’s offense without Christian McCaffery is downright dreadful. The Panthers rank 21st in offensive rush success rate and 29th in pass success rate. It’s not like they’ve played the toughest schedule of defenses either.  The Jets, Texans, Cowboys, Eagles, Vikings, and Giants all rank OUTSIDE the Top 10 in overall defensive efficiency. Only the Saints rank inside the Top 5 and New Orleans was down a bevy of defensive starters including Marshon Lattimore and 7 members of the coaching staff. 

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Matador Moments

We’ve stated time and time again it all starts with the inadequacy of the offensive line.  The Panthers continue to rank bottom 10 in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack %. They’re also bottom 5 in pass block and run block win rate’s.  RG John Miller is headed to the IR with an ankle sprain and the Panthers signed WR Willie Snead this week to address the 3rd WR position need as Terrace Marshall recovers from a concussion.  Things don’t bode well for an offense stuck in neutral since CMC’s injury.

Soaring Falcons

On the other sideline the Falcons are getting healthy at the right time.  All of their CB’s practiced on Wednesday. Most eyes are on CB A.J. Terrell to see how he does with his recovery from a concussion, his second of the season.  CB Fabian Moreau, CB Avery Williams, and S Erik Harris were all full participants Wednesday. All provide a good sign for a blitz heavy Dean Pees defense.  The only reason we are not looking UNDER in the first half is because Atlanta’s offense is starting to turn the corner under first year head coach Arthur Smith.

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Pittsburgh Steelers – Cleveland Browns FIRST HALF Under 21 (-110):

We have another full game total that received plenty of support from sharp bettors early in the week driving down the consensus opener of 43.5 to 42.  The first half number opened after the initial move happened so 21 has held strong.

Bye Benefits

We’ll start with the road Steelers fresh off of their bye week.  Pittsburgh might be the healthiest its been all year. Only Melvin Ingram remained on the early week injury report with a groin injury logging a limited practice Wednesday. If any team can potentially slow down Cleveland’s rushing attack it’s Pittsburgh.  DT Cam Heyward is still playing out of his mind for his age leading a defensive line ranking 5th in pass rush win rate.  The defensive backfield is healthy for the first time since the beginning of the season. It appears Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, and OBJ will all play but at far less than 100%.  Rest assured Pittsburgh has circled this game since their playoff exit against these same Browns.

Reinforcements are Coming

On the opposing sidelines it appears Denzel Ward will be unavailable for Sunday.  In a matchup against big armed quarterbacks this would be more impactful but Big Ben’s limited arm strength helps minimize the loss of Ward. Cleveland’s defense has shown well this season ranking 6th in adjusted line yards, 5th in adjusted sack rate, and Top 4 in both Pass Rush Win Rate, and Rush Stop Win Rate.  They are currently 6th in defensive pass success rate and that’s against a schedule of Top 10 offenses.

Lastly, both teams play incredibly slow in the first half. Pittsburgh is actually dead-last in pace of play in the opening 30 minutes.  I agree with the full-game under move and expect to see a slow start with the defenses gaining the upper hand throughout.

NFL Week 9 Look Ahead Lines via FanDuel Sportsbook:

NY Jets at Indianapolis -14

Houston at Miami -6.5

Denver at Dallas -7

Minnesota at Baltimore -5.5

New England -2 at Carolina

Buffalo -11 at Jacksonville

Cleveland at Cincinnati -2.5

Atlanta at New Orleans -5

Las Vegas -2.5 at NY Giants

LA Chargers -3.5 at Philadelphia

Green Bay at Kansas City -2.5

Arizona -3 at San Francisco

Tennessee at LA Rams -4

Chicago at Pittsburgh -4.5

Source: https://www.bettheboardpodcast.com/2021/10/29/nfl-week-8-line-moves-nfl-week-9-look-ahead-lines/