NFL Week 9 Line Moves, NFL Week 10 Look Ahead Lines

Written by Watt_05

NFL Week 9 brings about all the drama you could ever ask for and with it a volatile betting board.  Normally we try to find a few spots however this week the market hasn’t complied. Unfortunately we can’t make our move on the weekend instead we look to the bright lights of Monday Night Football. As always the first look at NFL Week 10 lines from FanDuel are also included.

Chicago +7 (-120) @ Pittsburgh:

The Chicago Bears were installed 5-point underdogs for their road trip to Pittsburgh for Monday Night Football before last weekend’s results.  Pittsburgh wins a gritty divisional game at the Cleveland Browns and Chicago falls to the resurgent 49ers and suddenly -5 becomes -6.5. However, we’ve seen some nibbles on the ‘dog here as we approach the second most important number in football and that’s where the handicap starts.

Subscribe to Bet The Board Podcast ?
Apple Podcasts: apple.co/3mdGgbz
SoundCloud: bit.ly/3bR66gK
Google Podcasts: bit.ly/2RgfdxR
Spotify: spoti.fi/3jjDJwL

Marred by Injuries

We’ll start with the injury report for both teams, or rather the lack of information we have at this point in the week for a Monday Night game.  Chicago waived OLB Sam Kamara which could mean good news for the status of LB/DE Khalil Mack despite the recorded DNP Thursday.  It remains to be seen if S Eddie Jackson can go although hamstring injuries rarely heal in just over a week.  Pittsburgh signed K Josh Lambo to their practice squad which could indicate Chris Boswell‘s status is in peril. Normally kicking injuries can be dismissed but given the difficult conditions at Heinz Field his potential absence shouldn’t be understated.

Subscribe and Listen to Bet the Board’s NFL and College Football Weekly Podcasts

Looking in the Mirror

The Bears and the Steelers feel like conference clones of each other. Strong front-7’s lead the way on defense and both boast offenses that are both outside the Top 25 in overall efficiency.  The Bears have faced the #1 schedule of offenses thus far.  It’s difficult to see where the Steelers will have an advantage on the offensive side of the ball. With the total trending downwards from a peak of 40 to as low as 38.5, backing laying 6.5 or more doesn’t seem like a recipe for long term success.

Maximize the Correlation

A total in the high 30’s means each point has slightly more value than if the total were in the low 50’s. Grabbing +7 on the buy yields more value than traditional math indicates.  Assuming the Bears upgrade key defensive personnel before Monday, the +7 on game day should be a strong position to earn from.  Despite the ongoing offensive struggles in Chicago (please stay home Matt Nagy), the Bears and their defense have a chance to keep this close.  It’s the Bears or pass at this current juncture.

Week 10 Look-Ahead Lines via FanDuel Sportsbook:

Baltimore -7 at Miami

Jacksonville at Indianapolis -10

Cleveland at New England -3

Atlanta at Dallas -9.5

Buffalo -14 at NY Jets

New Orleans at Tennessee -2.5

Tampa Bay -8 at Washington

Detroit at Pittsburgh -8.5

Minnesota at LA Chargers -2.5

Philadelphia at Denver -1.5

Kansas City -3 at Las Vegas

LA Rams -3 at San Francisco

Source: https://www.bettheboardpodcast.com/2021/11/05/nfl-week-9-line-moves-nfl-week-10-look-ahead-lines/