Pakistan Super League Day 10 Tips: Hales value for Lahore score

Islamabad United v Lahore Qalandars
Saturday 5 February 09.30
TV: live on Sky Sports

United the future

Islamabad hammered Quetta Gladiators on Thursday. They amassed 229 batting first and the result was never in doubt after the break.

United could well be the blueprint for future T20 batting units. Their intent is through the roof and they don’t overvalue their wickets. Four of the top five struck at 184 or more.

We said pre-tournament they had the highest boundary percentage for their top six and so it has proved. They will take some stopping. Colin Munro has come in for Rahman-ullah Gurbaz which is an upgrade.

Probable XI: Stirling, Hales, Munro, Shadab, Azam, Asif, Mubasir, Faheem, Hasan, Wasim Jnr, Waqas

Salt sweet

Like United, Lahore have two wins from three. They thumped Peshawar Zalmi last time out, in no small part to some sloppy fielding work.

Fakhar Zaman, the batter of the tournament so far, slammed another big score. They should bolster their batting with the inclusion of Phil Salt. It might be wise to recall Samit Patel, who offers perfect balance lower down the order and with useful overs.

Possible XI: Shafique, Fakhar, Ghulam, Salt, Hafeez, Wiese, Rashid, Patel, Afridi, Rauf, Zaman

Pitch report

Before Kings-Zalmi on Thursday, more than 170 has been posted in 16 of the last 26 at Karachi’s National Stadium and in 16 of those both teams scored 160 or more. The massive toss bias held at the start of the tournament but the chaser has won the last four – six out of 10 have been won by the side batting second. In the last 35 PSL games at Karachi, 26 have been won by the chaser.

We expect big runs here from two team who do not die wondering. But Sportsbook are alert to it with 4/6 for both making 170. The 4/1 that both score 200 is a bit mean. Bet on these markets here. Instead we might play over 172.5 on the par line

United superior

We expect the toss bias to hold. Recent trend busters have probably been down to a mismatch. We are identifying which teams cannot be trusted even with the toss in their favour.

United are the superior side so pre-toss the 1.875/6 seems fair. That will shorten if they chase. The best ploy is to wait for their price to come up with Lahore going hard in the first six.

Tops value

Alex Hales has one win in three this term taking his win percentage rate in the last three editions to 40%. We therefore have to get involved at the boosted 11/4 (implied probability of 26.7%) with Sportsbook. Paul Stirling at 16/5 is a threat. He has played only five PSL matches in our study period.

Fakhar has been boosted to 13/5. He has a win rate of 28% after three straight wins so the edge is minimal at 0.2%.

Peshawar Zalmi v Multan Sultans
Saturday 5 February 14.30
TV: live on Sky Sports

Zalmi wait on England pair

Zalmi are feeling good about themselves after somehow defending 174 against Karachi Kings on Friday with Babar Azam unbeaten on 90. Babar, as much as we love him for the top match-bat winner has to take some of the blame.

There’s not much to write home about their batting line-up and one can only assume Liam Livingstone’s availability is imminent considering other England players have appeared.

We’re not enamoured with Hazratullah Zazai in the opening berth despite a score against Kings. Saqib Mahmood could also make the XI.

Possible XI: Livingstone, Kamran Akmal, Talat, Haider, Shoaib, Rutherford, Cutting, Wahab, Qadir, S Mahmood, Irshad

Sultans boosted

Multan Sultans are looking unstoppable on their way to defending their title. They have won four out of four and possibly only Islamabad United can get close to them. And they beat them last time out.

Sultans could be boosted by the availability of Rovman Powell off the back of his murderous century in the Caribbean against England. He has not been included in the West Indies squad for the ODI series against India. Interestingly they have ditched last term’s top series wicket-taker, Shahnawaz Dahani for Rumman Raees.

Possible XI: Masood, Rizwan, Maqsood, Rossouw, David, Kushdil, Willey, Anwar, Abbas, Tahir, Raees.

Hope for Sultans rise

Multan are 1.748/11 favourites. They should be sub 1.705/7 given their record. The toss bias trend slipping gives us confidence about betting pre-flip.

In an ideal world, of course, Livingstone would play, Sultans would chase and they would have to go after 180-plus. Then we’d get superior odds.

Tops value

Mohmmad Rizwan has been boosted to 5/2 by Sportsbook for top Multan bat. That’s an edge on win rate. Another price that stands out is the 10/11 that Zazai goes under 20.5. A bet on the Afghan would have been a winner at those numbers ten times in his last 15. Bet here..

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