Patriots – Dolphins → NFL Game Betting Odds & Predictions

The Miami Dolphins meet the New England Patriots in Week 1 for the 114th time in their rivalry. The Dolphins have won 59 of the previous meetings, while the Patriots have won 54. Miami dominated the series in the early years, while New England dominated it for much of the Brady-Belichick era. However, the Dolphins have won three in a row in the series, as well as the crucial 2019 matchup in Week 17 that sent the Patriots to the wild-card round, where they would lose to Tennessee – and Tom Brady would end up packing his bags for Tampa. This time around, it will be Mac Jones and Tua Tagovailoa, two former star quarterbacks at Alabama, who will lead the two offenses. The Dolphins are slight favorites at home, so read on to see if we agree with that line in our NFL betting prediction.

NFL Preview: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Week 1 (Sunday, September 11)

 

When: Sunday, September 11, 2022, 12:00 pm ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
TV: CBS
Radio: 98.5 FM The Sports Hub Boston / WQAM 560 AM Miami
Live Stream: Sling TV
NFL Odds: Miami -3.5 / O/U 46 / New England +158 / Miami -190

Why should you bet on the Patriots?

After a season in the NFL wilderness, the Pats posted a decent 10-7 record last year and snagged an AFC wild card. Things got ugly in a hurry, as Buffalo dealt a 47-17 whipping to the Pats in the wild card round – with a lot of those 17 points for New England coming in garbage time. Mac Jones returns as the starting quarterback after a season when he had a 22:13 TD:INT ratio and 3,801 passing yards. Bill Belichick was cautious with Jones, most notably in the Patriots’ win at Buffalo that only featured two passing attempts from the rookie. Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris make a nice tailback duo, and Devante Parker arrived from Miami to take on the WR1 slot. Kenrick Bourne, Jakobi Meyers and rookie Tyquan Thornton will also look to contribute.

The defense, as always for a Belichick-coached team, has a solid system with skilled contributors. Devin McCourty, Jabrill Peppers, Kyle Dugger and Adrian Phillips make up a solid secondary, while Mack Wilson, Ja’Whaun Bentley and Matthew Judon will anchor the front seven. Against the spread, the Patriots have covered just once in their last five, and the same number is true for games against AFC opponents. Jones returns with a season of experience and with a new level of physical conditioning, but Miami has not been a good place for the Patriots in recent years.

Why should you put your money on the Dolphins?

Miami went just 9-8 last season, missing the playoffs for the fifth straight year. Tua Tagovailoa threw 16 touchdown passes against 10 interceptions, picking up 2,653 passing yards. The wide receiver room got a huge boost as the Dolphins added Tyreek Hill to go with Cedrick Wilson and Jaylen Waddle, suddenly giving Tagovailoa a wealth of targets Tailbacks Chase Edmonds, Myles Gaskin and Raheem Mostert will look to take some of the pressure off Tagovailoa.

On defense, the pass rush will have Raekwon Davis leading the way along with linebackers Jerome Baker and Melvin Ingram III. Xavien Howard also returns in the Dolphin secondary. Miami has covered in seven of their last 11 games against AFC East opponents and in five of their last six games played at home.

Final Score and Prediction

I like Belichick’s system, but the truth is that New England has had a hard time in Miami in recent years. If you can buy a point (or find a line at -3 or -2.5), I would jump on that opportunity, but even at 3 ½ points, Miami has the talent to take care of business at home. I predict a final score of Miami 23, New England 17.

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