Peshawar Zalmi v Lahore Qalandars
Wednesday 2 February 14:30
Live on Sky Sports
Zalmi finding their feet
Zalmi have one win and one defeat. They were outclassed by Islamabad last time out but beat Quetta. It is probable that Zalmi sit somewhere between those two teams in terms of ability. We still expect them to qualify for the play-offs without a worry.
They are a little stodgy in the middle order in comparison to bigger hitters. But help is at hand. This game probably comes too early for a quarantining Liam Livingstone but Saqib Mahmood should be available. Tom Kohler-Cadmore may make way for Livingstone in time if Zalmi want to open with the England man.
Probable XI: Kohler-Cadmore, Yasin, Haider, Talat, Shoaib, Rutherford, Cutting, Wahab, Sodail, P Brow, Qadir
Lahore tuning up
Lahore are second favourites for the title after winning their first two matches. And they’re about to get stronger with Phil Salt and Harry Brook joining up.
Brook might not get many starts but Salt is likely to come in for Ben Dunk. A bit more batting stability is required given Lahore are extremely strong with the ball.
Shaheen Shah Afridi, Haris Rauf and Rashid Khan are 12 reliable overs. At some stage they may sacrifice Samit Patel for, perhaps, Brook if Mohammad Hafeez can be relied upon as a sixth bowling option. He should be.
Possible XI: Fakhar, Shafique, Ghulam, Hafeez, Wiese, Patel, Dunk, Rashid, Afridi, Rauf, Zaman.
Pitch report
Before Islamabad-Multan, more than 170 has been posted in 13 of the last 23 at Karachi’s National Stadium and in 13 of those both teams scored 160 or more. The massive toss bias has held so far with six out of seven won by the chaser. In the last 32 PSL games at Karachi, 26 have been won by the chaser.
Therefore, both teams to score 160 at 10/11 doesn’t seem short enough. That’s up from 8/11 in Tuesday’s game. Both teams to score 170 and 180 are at 15/8 and 11/4 respectively. Bet on these markets here
Stick with chaser
We’re not about to abandon the toss bias as a solid betting strategy, even though we recognise Lahore as the superior team. Zalmi are more than capable of bridging the gap if they chase.
At 1.758/11 Lahore could go sub 1.608/13 if the toss goes their way. But we could see a choice affair if the flip favours Zalmi. We’d be happy to bet either team at the break for 180 or more for a decent odds-against success.
Tops value
Fakhar has been boosted to 13/5 for top Lahore bat. He smashed 106 in his last outing against Karachi. He has won two out of two this season but his win rate going back the last two years is only 25%.
The standout value in terms of a batting order bet could be David Wiese. He is 16/1. He could bat at four, five or six. The price is bang on in terms of win rate.
Usman Qadir looks very chunky at 10/3 for top Zalmi bowler. He is on course – once he plays more games – to be a win-rate wager. Rashid Khan has only a 25% return rate in the last two years for Lahore so we can swerve the 7/4 most wickets. Afridi, who is 9/4, is a better bet with a return rate of 45%. Bet on these markets here
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