Predicting Each NFL Team’s Over/Under

Before the season, sportsbooks will release a number of wins they predict each NFL team to win during the regular season. Gamblers can choose to bet the over/under on the win total. Predicting each NFL team’s over/under isn’t easy, as each game result impacts so much.

Win totals are found here.

Predict every game of the 2021 NFL season at playoffpredictors.com.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills- Over 11.5 wins

Last season, the Bills were projected to get 11 wins and they did. This season more is expected of them, but they are fully capable of winning at least 12 games. They were able to draft cornerback Kaiir Elam, who should improve the secondary, especially with the return of Tre White from injury. If James Cook can add more to the offense, Buffalo will be even tougher to defeat. Playing the AFC and NFC North can be tough, but Josh Allen‘s development, plus the additions to the roster should have the Bills in play for the first seed in the AFC.

Miami Dolphins- Under 9 wins

The Dolphins are a very difficult team to predict the over/under on. They improved their weak offensive line, so the offense should be able to put up more points. The defense may look a little different without Brian Flores in charge, but should still be solid. The schedule makes it tough to predict, as does the development of Tua Tagovailoa. Miami should finish right around nine wins, but the smart bet is on the under.

New England Patriots- Under 8.5 wins

The tough schedule will also make it tough for the Patriots to hit the over. It is also hard to see the defense playing at the same level they did in 2021 without J.C. Jackson who is now in Los Angeles. New England could’ve improved at wide receiver this offseason, but didn’t add the best players they could have at the position. The Patriots will be a tough team for anyone to play because of Bill Belichick, but betting the over feels too risky.

New York Jets- Under 5.5 wins

Two of the Jets’ 2021 wins came over playoff teams, but the other two came against the Texans and Jaguars. The team gets pass rusher Carl Lawson after he missed the 2021 season. They also had a great draft to set them up well for this season. Not playing the AFC South this season could cost them. The Jets have a brutal start to the schedule and could be worn down by the time the schedule eases up near the end of the season.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens- Over 9.5 wins

Baltimore was one of the more injured teams the NFL has seen in recent memory during the 2021 season. They still managed to win eight games. The Ravens drafted well and although they traded away Marquise Brown, should be able to move the ball on offense. With games against the AFC East and NFC South, there are enough winnable games to take the over for the Ravens.

Cincinnati Bengals- Over 10 wins

Cincinnati shocked the world when they went to the Super Bowl. That roster has been improved, as the offensive line, their biggest weakness has plenty of new members. With Joe Burrow back under center and some new faces in the secondary, the Bengals should be able to win at least 10 games, even with the tougher schedule.

Cleveland Browns- Under 9.5 wins

The Deshaun Watson suspension has a big factor in this. Cleveland won eight games last season and will likely have Jacoby Brissett starting for at least six games this season. With a tough division, the safe bet is under 9.5 while the NFL appeals Watson’s six-game suspension.

Pittsburgh Steelers- Under 7 wins

Pittsburgh is going into the season without a clear solution at the quarterback position. Kenny Pickett likely should be the starter, but is still a rookie. The tam will rely on the defense a lot this season. The tough schedule makes seven wins just a bit too rich.

AFC South

Houston Texans- Under 4.5 wins

David Culley led a lackluster Texans’ roster to four wins last season. It was an incredible job, but the Texans have moved on. The roster still has a lot of holes in it and if the Jaguars improve after firing Urban Meyer that could be troublesome, as that accounted for two of their wins. The Texans are still rebuilding and may have the worst record in football by the end of the year.

Indianapolis Colts- Over 10 wins

Indianapolis has struggled to find a consistent quarterback since Andrew Luck retired, but now Matt Ryan will come into the fold. Ryan will have the best offensive line and defense to work with in quite some time. With an easier division, the Colts should hit the over and make the playoffs in 2022.

Jacksonville Jaguars- Under 6.5 wins

Jacksonville was a mess last year. While they have made some improvements to the roster, they have a lot to clean up. There may be some signs of improvement in 2022, but they should still be expected to win less than 6.5 games.

Tennessee Titans- Under 9 wins

The Titans made the playoffs again last season, but traded away A.J. Brown, who helped the offense open up a bit. To make things worse, the schedule is also going to be brutal, as they have to play the AFC West. The Titans should be around .500 this season, but taking the over and saying they’ll win 10 is too risky.

AFC West

Denver Broncos- Over 10 wins

Denver’s defense has been solid and even losing Von Miller will be cushioned by the signing of Randy Gregory. Patrick Surtain II emerging as a star corner helps as well. What Denver has really lacked is a quarterback. With a solid stock of position players, Russell Wilson should be able to lead the team to the playoffs, even in the tough AFC West.

Kansas City Chiefs- Over 10.5 wins

There will be an adjustment period without Tyrann Mathieu and Tyreek Hill. Most importantly though, Patrick Mahomes is back and protected behind a solid offensive line. They drafted well and while there might be an adjustment period, they should make the playoffs.

Las Vegas Raiders- Over 8.5 wins

After making the playoffs last season, the Raiders added Davante Adams and Chandler Jones to the fold. The division is tough, but if Derek Carr plays like he did last season, or better with Adams, Las Vegas can hit the over, even if it is just barely.

Los Angeles Chargers- Over 10 wins

Can all four teams in the division hit the over? It could be a smart bet, even if only three hit. The Chargers have a star at quarterback with Justin Herbert, but they have also added plenty of talent to the defense to help them make the playoffs. If they don’t win at least 10 games with J.C. Jackson and Khalil Mack joining the team, it will be a failure.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys- Over 10 wins

Trading away Amari Cooper and losing Gregory to the Broncos definitely hurts, but the Cowboys still have the most talented roster in the NFC East. Getting to the playoffs shouldn’t be the problem, but winning once they are in seems to be a tough obstacle.

New York Giants- Under 7 wins

The Giants had a good draft and hired a good coach in Brian Daboll. Jumping from four wins to over seven seems to be too much, especially with the future of Daniel Jones at the quarterback position still in question.

Philadelphia Eagles- Over 9.5 wins

Philadelphia is giving Jalen Hurts plenty of help with the acquisition of A.J. Brown at wide receiver. With a good offensive line, Brown and DeVonta Smith the offense should be tough to stop. Defensively, they battled tough last season and may be improved with some new acquisitions. They made the playoffs last season and this season can do the same.

Washington Commanders- Under 8 wins

Carson Wentz will be at quarterback for the Commanders. The offense likely won’t improve that much. Washington has a strong defensive line, which is the best part about their team. The Commanders can be competitive, but winning nine games will be tough.

NFC North

Chicago Bears- Under 6.5 wins

Chicago made the right move in getting a new head coach. The problem is that they didn’t add much to the offensive line until they signed Riley Reiff. They also didn’t add a significant wide receiver to help Justin Fields‘s development. With Khalil Mack leaving the defense, it could be a long year for the Bears.

Detroit Lions- Under 6.5 wins

The Lions have built up the offensive line and now have gone out and gotten some wide receivers for Jared Goff. Dan Campbell has players looking like they would run through a brick wall for him. They may take a step forward, but projecting them to improve by four wins is a bit much.

Green Bay Packers- Over 11 wins

Losing Davante Adams hurts, but the defense is likely the best the Packers have had during the Aaron Rodgers years. Expect the offense to take a few weeks before improving, as new wide receivers need to be broken in, but the Packers should win the division and at least 12 games.

Minnesota Vikings- Under 9 wins

Minnesota went 8-9 last season and seem like they may be stuck around that range for the foreseeable future. The team is largely the same in 2022, which means expecting them to get to 10 wins doesn’t make sense.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons- Under 5 wins

The Falcons are going through a clear rebuild. They will either start Marcus Mariota or Desmond Ridder at quarterback, their offensive line still isn’t great and the defense needs some work too. Atlanta could have the worst record in the league during the 2022 season.

Carolina Panthers- Under 6.5 wins

Getting Baker Mayfield helps, but the success of the team largely lies in the health of Christian McCaffrey. When he is healthy the team is competitive, but when he isn’t they usually wear down the stretch. His injuries aren’t lingering and don’t have much of a shot of reinjury, but it is hard to imagine them having him healthy for a full season. Until he can stay healthy again, taking the under is the play.

New Orleans Saints- Over 8 wins

This year, Jameis Winston will return from injury and get his chance to start again. The Saints lost Terron Armstead from the offensive line, but add Tyrann Mathieu to the defense. Winston having the job full time with no Taysom Hill distractions should greatly benefit the Saints. Even without Sean Payton, New Orleans should push for a playoff spot.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Over 11.5 wins

Tampa won 13 games last season even with injuries in their secondary. They continue to draft well and there is no reason to expect the offense to slow down any time soon with Tom Brady back at quarterback.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals- Over 8.5 wins

Despite the Kyler Murray contract drama, the Cardinals are set up pretty well for 2022. They’ll have to get through six games of a suspension for DeAndre Hopkins, but Marquise Brown was acquired. The defense lost Chandler Jones, but could have a healthy J.J. Watt for a full season. Winning a Super Bowl might be out of the question for the Cardinals, but they should win nine games.

Los Angeles Rams- Over 10.5 wins

The NFC West is tough, but the Rams are coming off a Super Bowl victory and a great season. They have great defensive players and having Matt Stafford at quarterback really opened up the offense. Winning back to back Super Bowls is tough, but the Rams should win the division and make the playoffs.

San Francisco 49ers- Under 10 wins

Trey Lance has plenty of physical tools to be a good NFL quarterback and is now getting his chance. He just needs more reps before it can be predicted that he can lead a team to more than 10 wins in a very tough division. Kyle Shanahan can get the offense moving and get them in playoff contention, but taking the over is too risky.

Seattle Seahawks- Under 5.5 wins

Seattle is in rebuild mode now and have Drew Lock set to start at quarterback. They lost Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner and Chris Carson. Those guys won’t be easy to replace. In a tough division, it will be tough for them to rack up wins.

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