Really Early Updated Major College Bowl Predictions

We’re only about six weeks away from the start of the 2021-22 college football bowl season. Overall, there will be 42 bowl games, and the national semifinals will consist of the Cotton Bowl and the Orange Bowl, set for New Year’s Eve, and the national championship will not take place in a bowl game stadium but is instead set for Indianapolis’ Lucas Oil Stadium on January 10.

Let’s take a look at some bowl game projections as you start to ponder your college football betting options.

NCAA News: Updated Major Bowl Predictions

Rose Bowl (January 1)

This bowl game is generally tied to the top teams from the Big Ten and the Pac-12 who are not in the CFP semifinals. Right now, the top-ranked team in the Big Ten is the Michigan State Spartans, and if they can win out, they would likely be in that final four. If the season ended today, in fact, the Spartans would face Alabama in one semifinal.

The biggest obstacles remaining in Michigan State’s path include their game at Ohio State, on November 20, and (should they win that) a potential Big Ten championship. If they win out, as an unbeaten Power Five conference champion, they won’t be heading to the Rose Bowl. In that case, it would likely fall to Ohio State or Michigan, and the game between those two would sort that out.

I was shocked when Michigan State came back to beat Michigan, but Ohio State’s offense seems to operate at a level above that of Michigan, which means that the Spartans wouldn’t be able to mount that sort of comeback. Their matchup with Ohio State is in Columbus, which will make winning more difficult. So right now, I see Ohio State finishing ahead of Michigan State in the final rankings. If Ohio State wins out and goes to the playoffs, that would have Michigan State in the Rose Bowl.

How about the Pac-12? Oregon is currently ranked #4 in the CFP standings, and they are the only Pac-12 team in the CFP Top 25. So the loser of the Pac-12 Championship (assuming Oregon wins out) would likely head to the Rose Bowl. Right now, the Pac-12 South leader is Utah (5-3, 4-1 Pac-12). So a Utah-Michigan State Rose Bowl looks the most likely right now. Of course, if Oregon stumbles between now and the Pac-12 Championship, they would go to the Rose Bowl. They do seem like the real deal, though — and they have beaten Ohio State on the road.

Sugar Bowl (January 1)

This game has tie-ins to the SEC and the Big 12. The Big 12 leader is unbeaten Oklahoma, but they only ranked eighth in the first College Football Playoff standings. I suppose that the committee is tired of seeing Oklahoma snag the fourth seed after an unbeaten season and a Big 12 title, only to get embarrassed on national television in the semifinal game. This means that a lot of teams ahead of the Sooners would have to stumble for Oklahoma to get a chance. So for right now, Oklahoma is my projected Big 12 team in the Sugar Bowl.

What about the SEC? Georgia seems set for a playoff spot, even if they lose the SEC Championship. If Alabama loses to Auburn and Texas A&M ends up taking the SEC West in a tiebreaker, you have to think that Alabama would fall out of the CFP top four. In that case, they would end up in the Sugar Bowl.

But if Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC Championship they would both likely make the CFP semifinals. So what team would go to the Sugar Bowl? In that event, I would expect to see Texas A&M, unless they stumble again. In that case, we would likely see Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss in New Orleans. For now, though, I see Oklahoma and Texas A&M taking the field — and the Aggies winning handily.

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