- No. 3 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas and No. 5 Andrey Rublev open their ATP Finals quest Tuesday
- Their rivalry has been fairly even over the years, but neither arrives in particularly good form
- Read on as we break down the matchup and make a prediction
Before the start of this year’s ATP Finals, the Green Group seemed to be the one with the most questions.
In addition to rookie Casper Ruud, who has been strongest on clay so far in his career, there were two top-five players coming in without a lot of momentum.
World No. 4 Stefanos Tsitsipas and No. 5 Andrey Rublev, separated by about 1,500 points in the rankings but only one slot, have not been lighting it up this fall.
They meet on Tuesday in the opening match for both.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev Odds
Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
---|---|---|---|
[3] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) | -1.5 (-105) | -125 | O 23.5 (-115) |
[5] Andrey Rublev (RUS) | +1.5 (-125) | +100 | U 23.5 (-120) |
Odds as of Nov. 15 at DraftKings
Tsitsipas Arm Injury Scuttles Paris
As much tennis as the 23-year-old from Greece has played over the last few years, he has always seemed extremely durable.
He rarely pulls out of tournaments. And he plays a lot of doubles, too.
So his retirement because of an arm issue in his opener at the Paris Masters two weeks ago, against Alexei Popyrin of Australia, was a surprise.
Stefanos Tsitsipas’s recovery from an arm injury is heading in the right direction, the world number four said on Friday ahead of the ATP Finals in Turin, Italy. https://t.co/ATDxJlDRKW
— Reuters Sports (@ReutersSports) November 12, 2021
It was only the second retirement in his professional career. He wouldn’t elaborate on the nature of the injury, saying it was something he had been carrying for a long time.
The best-case scenario was that it was more precautionary than anything, and that he’ll come out swinging this week.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev Head-to-Head
23 (Aug. 12, 1998) | Age | 24 (Oct. 20, 1997) |
Athens, Greece | Birthplace | Moscow, Russia |
6-4 | Height | 6-2 |
7 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 8 |
0 | Career Grand Slam Singles Titles | 0 |
No. 3 (Aug. 9, 2021) | Career High Ranking | No. 5 (Sept. 13, 2021) |
No. 4 | Current Ranking | No. 5 |
$16,024,712 | Career Prize Money | $9,651,504 |
55-18 | 2021 Won/Loss record | 48-20 |
4 | Career Head to Head | 4 |
Tsitsipas Won It All in 2019
This is Tsitsipas’s third consecutive participation in the finals.
He won it in his first appearance in 2019 after an impressive week in which he posted some top-class wins.
Last year, he went 1-2 in the round-robin and didn’t qualify for the weekend. The only match he did win was against … Rublev.
Recently, Tsitsipas lost in the second round in Vienna, the quarterfinals of Indian Wells and the third round of the US Open.
Rublev Scuffling to the Finish
Rublev did most of his best work earlier in the season. From the start of 2021 through Monte Carlo in mid-April, he went 26-5.
But since reaching the Cincinnati final just before the US Open, it’s been a slog.
Since a third-round loss at the US Open, he’s posted a 4-5 record and lost his opener at the Paris Masters to American Taylor Fritz.
The question will be if he can find a fourth wind to really give it a go in Torino.
Rublev went 1-2 in the round-robin in his first ATP Finals qualification a year ago. And, like Tsitsipas, he did not advance to the semifinals.
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev Match History
Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | Monte Carlo Masters (F) | Outdoor Clay | 6-3, 6-3 | Tsitsipas |
2021 | Rotterdam (SF) | Indoor Hard | 6-3, 7-6 (2) | Rublev |
2020 | ATP FInals (RR) | Indoor Hard | 6-1, 4-6, 7-6 (6) | Tsitsipas |
2020 | French Open (QF) | Outdoor Clay | 7-5, 6-2, 6-3 | Tsitsipas |
2020 | Hamburg (F) | Outdoor Clay | 6-4, 3-6, 7-5 | Rublev |
2019 | US Open (R128) | Outdoor Hard | 6-4, 6-7 (5), 7-6 (7), 7-5 | Rublev |
2018 | Next Gen Finals (SF) | Indoor Hard | 4-3, 3-4, 4-0, 2-4, 4-3 | Tsitsipas |
2017 | Quimper Challenger (R32) | Indoor Hard | 6-2, 3-6, 7-6 (7) | Rublev |
Tsitsipas With More Weapons
At 24, Rublev’s game remains built around a screaming forehand he tries to use at any opportunity.
Tsitsipas is a far more well-rounded player. His one-handed backhand is more versatile. And he’s far more willing to come to the net.
Despite that, not only has Rublev won his share of their encounters, nearly all of them have been extremely close.
That is likely to be the case again, but not necessarily for the usual reasons. The winner might be the player who struggles … least.
The court is playing quite fast, from all accounts. That will help Rublev’s forehand. It will encourage the type of quick-strike tennis that will favor him in this matchup.
As well, Rublev doesn’t appear to have any health concerns.
Best Bet: Rublev in three sets (+370)
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