UNC vs Louisville Picks and Odds (Feb. 21)

Time Stamp: February 21, 2022 5:15 AM
  • UNC is a 10-point favorite over Louisville on Monday
  • Louisville broke a 7-game skid with a win over Clemson on Saturday
  • Read below for the UNC vs Louisville odds, analysis, and betting prediction

North Carolina (19-8, 11-5) is a 10-point home favorite over Louisville in an Atlantic Coast Conference game at 7 pm ET Monday on ESPN. The Tar Heels have won seven of their last nine games in a late push to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Louisville (12-14, 6-10) has fallen apart in the last six weeks, although it broke a seven-game losing streak with a home win over Clemson on Saturday. The Tar Heels won the first meeting 90-83 in Louisville on Feb. 1.

Louisville vs UNC Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Louisville Cardinals +360 +10 (-110) Over 145 (-120)
UNC Tar Heels -490 -10 (-110) Under 145 (-100)

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on Feb. 20.

 

North Carolina is a 10-point favorite over Louisville with the total set at 145, the fourth-highest number Louisville has seen in an ACC game. North Carolina  is -490 on the moneyline, which means the Tar Heels have an 83% implied win probability. At +360 on the moneyline, Louisville has a 21.8% implied win probability.

The Tar Heels have fallen outside the top-25 favorites in the Final Four odds, currently sitting at +3000.

UNC Off the Bubble … For Now

The Tar Heels’ relatively easy road victory at Virginia Tech on Saturday gave them a needed push toward an NCAA tournament berth, inasmuch as it created a clear separation between them and the charging Hokies, who had won six straight, while giving them a first Quad 1 win. UNC was listed as a #9 seed in this week’s March Madness bracket projection.

Armando Bacot’s 20th double-double — 12 points (all in the second half), 15 rebounds — helped the Tar Heels open a 14-point second-half lead, and Virginia Tech was never closer than seven thereafter.

Caleb Love had 21 points, including six free throws in the final minute, and Brady Manek had 14 points for the Heels.

UNC vs Louisville Head-to-Head Results

The winner has also covered in the last 11 games in the series, dating to the Tar Heels’ 70-60 victory as a 3-point favorite in the quarterfinals of the 2015 ACC Tournament.

North Carolina has won and covered the last two, four of the last five and six of the last eight. The Tar Heels are 8-4 straight up and 7-5 ATS since Louisville joined the ACC for the 2014-15 season. They are 3-1 straight up and 2-2 ATS at the Dean Dome.

The game has gone over the total in the lasts two and three of the last four.

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Betting Trends

Louisville has been a “go-against” all season. The Cardinals are 8-17-1 ATS, tied with Florida Sate for third-worst spread record among Power Six teams behind North Carolina State (7-20) and Oregon State (6-18-1)

The Cardinals are 2-6-1 ATS on the road, although they covered the 6.5-point number in a 63-57 loss at Notre Dame in their last road game.

North Carolina is 5-3 ATS in ACC home games. The Tar Heels have gone over the total in six of their last seven games and eight of their last 11 despite an under at Virginia Tech. The Cardinals have been under in the last three and eight of the last 11.

Louisville Finally Gets a W

Louisville broke a seven-game losing streak with a 70-61 home win over Clemson, the Cardinals’ first win in exactly a month, but even that came with a caveat.

Clemson forward 6’10 P.J. Hall, who was averaging 16 points and 6.0 rebounds coming in, suffered a left foot injury 67 seconds into the game, left the game and did not return. Hall had a career-high 28 points against Florida State on Tuesday.

Reserve guard Noah Locke had 15 points and Malik Williams gave the Cardinals’ the lead for good with 6:32 remaining in his second game since returning from a team suspension.

Williams had 11 points and Jae’Lyn Williams had 10 rebounds as interim coach Mike Pegues got his first win since officially replacing Chris Mack.

Revisiting Game One

Louisville’s El Ellis made a layup with 15 seconds remaining to send the game into overtime and hit a three-pointer to give the Cardinals a two-point lead early in overtime before North Carolina regrouped for a 90-83 victory when the Cardinals unraveled in the final minute.

Leaky Black’s three put the Tar Heels ahead 84-81 with 2:10 left, and Caleb Love made four free throws after two Louisville technical fouls in the final 70 seconds to clinch it.

Brady Manek had 24 points and Armando Bacot had 19 points and a career-high 22 rebounds. Ellis had a career-high 25 points with a career-high five threes.

The Cardinals played without leading scorer and rebounder Williams (9.6 points, 8.1 rebounds).

UNC vs Louisville Prediction

Carolina stumbled in a loss to Pitt in its last home game, but the Tar Heels will not let that happen again as they continue to push to gain separation from others on the NCAA bubble. Louisville’s victory over Clemson is tainted because the Tigers were without P.J. Hall. Plus, it is never a good play to back one of the worst ATS teams in Division I. The Tar Heels will continue their roll.

The pick: North Carolina -10 (-110)

The post UNC vs Louisville Picks and Odds (Feb. 21) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

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