Utah St vs Air Force Odds and Picks (Dec. 29)

Odds as of December 28th, 2021.

Ryan Odom’s team got a game-high 29 points and 12 rebounds from leading scorer Justin Bean in last week’s 19-point victory over the Vikings. Max Shulga added 18 and seven in Utah State’s final non-conference tuneup.

Meantime, Joe Scott’s club faltered against a stifling Texans’ defense that forced 18 Academy turnovers. Freshman Jake Heidbreder led the Falcons with a career-high 15 points that included a personal-best three 3-pointers.  Air Force’s leading scorer AJ Walker — who averages 16.7 points per game — was limited to just six points (going 1-of-7 from the field).

You Ogden Know

Odom has picked up where predecessor Craig Smith left off. Prior to Smith leaving to coach the Utes in Salt Lake, he got the Aggies to consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances in 2019 and 2021. Now, anchored by Bean’s 19.9 points per game and 10.5 boards per an outing, Odom has Utah State primed for another March Madness run.

? https://t.co/1NJPwAaIR2

— Justin Bean (@justinbean34) December 22, 2021

Outside of a three-point loss to UC Davis in the season opener and a two-point defeat to St. Mary’s, USU’s only two other losses were against No. 24 BYU and always-tough Iowa. The Aggies are really good offensively, rating the top-40 of four offensive categories, per KenPom: offensive adjusted efficiency (36th), offensive effective field goal percentage (8th), offensive 3-point field goal percentage (10th) and offensive 2-point field goal percentage (26th). It all starts with Bean.

Utah State’s Justin Bean this season:

– 20.2 PPG
– 66% FG pct
– 60% 3-pt FG pct

The only other player over the last decade to average 20 PPG on 65% shooting through 13 games?

Zion Williamson in 2018-19.

— Jared Berson (@JaredBerson) December 22, 2021

The 6-foot-7 senior forward from Oklahoma has been one of the most indispensable players in college hoops this season. Fellow senior Brandon Horvath is the only other player on the roster averaging in double-digits (13.4) and is second on the team (after Bean) with 6.1 rebounds per game. This is a well-coached team with plenty of experience that should contend for a Mountain West title.

Competitive AF

The Falcons have not finished above .500 in eight straight seasons. But Scott has the Fly Boys out to a 7-4 start in Year 2, including wins over Tulsa and Texas Southern. The Academy has scuffled of late, however, losing three straight. Now, the program turns the page to Mountain West action.

Conference play is ? next for these ✌️ pic.twitter.com/X0NeGYpiz2

— Air Force Falcons (@AF_Falcons) December 22, 2021

Air Force ranks 36th in the nation in scoring defense (60.4 ppg) and features a trio of freshman who can do some things in Heidbreder, Ethan Taylor and Lucas Moerman. Taylor, a 6-foo-5 guard from Houston ranks fourth in the country in minutes (38.1) and 26th in steals per game (2.2). Meanwhile, Moerman — a local 6-foot-10 guard — has 20 blocks this season, needing only one more to tie freshman program record in MWC era.

The Pick

Air Force has been one of the feel-good stories in the first month-and-a-half of the college basketball season. But the Falcons are a significantly inferior team scoring the ball, rating near the bottom in all of Division I in several offensive categories. The play of the Academy’s younger players is certainly encouraging, but I’m not ready to say it will be enough to overcome a Utah State squad that have aspirations of a league title.

With Bean and Horvath leading the way for the road team, I like the Aggies in this spot.

Pick: Utah State -13 (-110)