Wagner vs Fairfield Odds, Lines, and Spread (Dec. 23)

Odds as of December 22nd, 2021.

Bashir Mason’s team blew out the Hornets by 42 points behind five players scoring in double-figures. Delonnie Hunt had a game-high 17 points, while Wagner’s leading scorer — Alex Morales — chipped in 15. The Seahawks have outscored their opponents by an average of 43 points in their last three wins.

Meantime, Jay Young’s club was a tough-luck loser against the Minutemen.  Fairfield had a five-point lead with under 2:00 remaining, but UMass forced overtime and came out on top in the extra period. Junior forward Allan Jeanne-Rose scored a career-high 21 points in the loss, which snapped five-game win streak for the Stags. Sophomore forward — and owner of one of the great names in college basketball — Supreme Cook added 15 points and 13 rebounds.

Flying High

The Seahawks were predicted to win the NEC in 2021-22 — and they have met expectations so far. Wagner is, by far, the class of the conference according to KenPom with an overall rating of No. 129. The next closest team, Bryant, is rated 234th. Mason’s group is especially stout on the defensive end, rating in the top-30 in four categories: defensive turnover percentage (18th), defensive 3-point percentage (29th), defensive free throw percentage (9th) and defensive steal percentage (25th).

A new career high for @humblezai_ #Toughness pic.twitter.com/Wa8IcdAufZ

— Wagner Men's Basketball (@Wagner_MBB) December 21, 2021

Five players average at least nine points for the Seahawks, with four of them being seniors. The 6-foot-6 Morales leads the way, putting up 16 points and a team-high 6.3 rebounds per contest. The reigning NEC Player of the Year can do it all. He’s as good of a facilitator as he was a scorer in a standout 2020-21 season, posting a 25.0% assist rate and was fifth in the league in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.3) despite his high usage and proclivity to score.

Alex Morales from Wagner is a 6'6 wing who is averaging 16 points and 4.2 assists per game shooting 53.8% from 3, 78.6% from the line, and 62.9% from the field. He also has a 6.2% STL+BLK% and a 32.5% AST%. Obviously, it is difficult to get a read, but he interests me

— Bryce Hendricks (@BryceHendrick14) December 22, 2021

Meanwhile, both of Wagner’s losses came against top-100 teams (No. 29 Seton Hall and No. 88 Penn State) on the road. The Seahawks also own a road win over No.  78 VCU.

If you’re looking for an indicator of how good Wagner is, KenPom predicts the Seahawks will run the table in conference play — going 18-0 in the NEC.

Stag Party

While Wagner is doing what it’s supposed to do, Fairfield is exceeding expectations. Young’s group was picked to finish sixth in the league, but is currently the third-best team in the MAAC per KenPom. The Stags have five players averaging at least eight points per game. Senior guard Taj Benning leads that group, putting up 11.1 points per contest.

?2️⃣? treys for Taj open up a 50-28 lead‼️

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? https://t.co/YFGmuUQPo2#WeAreStags #StagsCompete #MAACHoops ?? pic.twitter.com/mGpMwHQywZ

— Fairfield Men’s Basketball (@FairfieldMBB) December 12, 2021

Whereas Wagner does it with defensive efficiency, Fairfield excels on the offensive end. The Stags rate in the top-60 according to KenPom in four categories: offensive effective field goal percentage (58th), offensive turnover percentage (52nd), offensive 2-point field goal percentage (37th) and offensive steal percentage (48th).

The Stags feature a balanced roster that was uncharacteristically on the short side of the turnover battle Sunday, committing 16 miscues while only forcing nine UMass giveaways. If Fairfield can take care of the rock, it should be in good shape.

The Pick

Fairfield isn’t projected to dominate its conference the way Wagner is. But the Stags are predicted to beat the Seahawks Thursday at home.

The Stags opened the season with a pair of losses to Providence and Boston College and righted the ship by winning eight of nine prior to the UMass loss over the weekend. Is the group ready to rebound? With the teams so closely matched up, I’ll side with the superior defensive outfit — and that’s the road team.

Pick: Wagner +3 (-110)