Xavier vs Villanova Odds and Picks (Dec. 21)

• Villanova is a 5.5-point favorite over Xavier on Tuesday
• Xavier is 9-3 ATS, 5-1 in its last six
• Read below for analysis and a betting prediction

No. 23 Villanova (7-4, 0-1) is a 5.5-point favorite over Xavier in a Big East game at 7:00 pm ET Tuesday on FS1. The Wildcats are the only team in the AP Top 25 with more than two losses.

No. 18 Xavier (11-1, 1-0) has won seven games in a row since losing to No. 9 Iowa State in the NIT Preseason Tip-Off at the Barclays Center on Nov. 24. The Musketeers have not been ranked this high since finishing the 2017-18 at No. 3 after an Elite Eight loss to Florida State.

Xavier vs Villanova Odds

Odds from BetMGM on Dec. 20.

The 7-4 Wildcats approach their Big East home opener from an unusual angle, having lost their last two games by at least 20 points, a program first since the 1998-99 season. They lost 57-36 at No. 1 Baylor on Dec. 12 and 79-59 at unranked Creighton last Saturday in the Big East opener for both.

Villanova’s 36 points at Baylor was the lowest in coach Jay Wright’s 21  seasons, and it tied the fewest points scored by a Top 10 team since the shot clock was adopted in 1985-86. Villanova, ranked No. 9 entering that game, is off to its worst start since 2012-13.

Villanova Hits a Wall

The 7-4 Wildcats are off to their worst start since 2012-13, and shooting has become a growing concern. Villanova shot a season-low 22.2 percent from the field at Baylor made only 33.3 percent at Creighton.

The perimeter oriented Wildcats are shooting 41.7 percent from the field, which ranks 280th in NCAA Division I. They usually make up some of that difference with a large volume of three-pointers, but their 36.2 rate from distance on an average of 29 threes per game has not generated enough extra points to help. They have made 23 of 100 threes in the last three games.

Leading scorer senior guard Collin Gillespie, who is averaging 16.2 points per game, was 8 of 24 in those two games,  3 of 15 from three-point range. He made a season-low one three at Creighton in eight attempts, and his only points against Baylor came on a pair of 3-pointers late in the first half.

Guard Justin Moore, averaging 14.7 points, also was 8 of 24 against Baylor and Creighton, 2 of 9 from distance. The Wildcats made a season-low 4 of 23 three-pointers against Creighton, when they pulled within two at 56-54 with nine minutes remaining minutes left but missed their final 12 shots from the field and were outscored 23-5.

Villanova plays a clean, efficient game. It does not turn the ball over and does not foul. The Wildcats are averaging 8.8 turnovers per game, fifth in Division I, and because it averages only 14.7 fouls per game, opponents did not get many free points. But all that is secondary if it is not knocking down perimeter shots.

Xavier’s opponents are shooting 37.9 percent from the field.

Xavier’s Balancing Act

The Musketeers have four players averaging in double figures this season, and seven different players have led them in scoring in 12 games this season.

Sophomore guard 6’1 Dwon Odom became No. 7 when he came off the bench to score a career-high 19 points on right of nine shooting in an 80-71 home victory over Marquette in the Big East opener Saturday.  Six players have led the Musketeers in scoring in the last six games

Sixth-year senior guard 6’4 Nate Johnson (13.3 points) and junior Iowa transfer reserve center 6’11 Jack Nunge (13.0 points, 7.8 rebounds) lead the balanced attack that can scored inside of out.

Johnson has taken two-thirds of his short from the perimeter and has made 35 of 74 three-point attempts, 47.3 percent, which is 18th in Division I. He had 17 points (four threes), five rebounds and four assists against Marquette and he made seven threes including the go-ahead shot with 25 seconds remaining in a 59-58 victory over Virginia Tech in the NIT Season Tip-Off.

Nunge had a 31-point, 15-rebound in a 83-63 victory over Cincinnati on Dec. 11, and along with sophomore guard 6’6 Colby Jones (12.4 points, 8.2 rebounds) and junior forward 6’9 Zach Freemantle (8.7 points, 4.7 rebounds) has helped the Musketeers to a plus-9.5 rebound margin, 16th in Division I.

Fifth-year senior guard 6’4 Paul Scruggs (10.8 points, 4.3 rebounds) has not been asked to score as much this season. He is in Xavier’s top 10 in career assists.

Jack Nunge's last three games for Xavier: 19 PPG, 11.3 RPG. Playing like a first-team All-Big East caliber player. A tremendous bounce back story after injury and other obstacles. Awesome to see.

— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) December 19, 2021

By the Numbers

Villanova leads the series 30-6 and has won the last three. They did not play in the Covid-shortened 2020-21 season. Villanova is 5-6 ATS, 2-1 as a home favorite in a heavy road schedule that has included games at UCLA and neutral-site games against Purdue, Tennessee and Syracuse.

The Wildcats are 8-1 straight up and 6-2 ATS in the season series, although Xavier has covered two of the last three. The Wildcats are thin — only six players average more than 14 minutes — and face a tough matchup. The numbers say Xavier.

The pick: Xavier +5.5 (-110)

The post Xavier vs Villanova Odds and Picks (Dec. 21) appeared first on Sports Betting Dime.

Source: https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/ncaab/xavier-vs-villanova-odds-picks-december21/