Code S RO8 Preview - ByuN, Solar, Maru, GuMiho

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RO8 Group A Preview: ByuN, Solar, Maru, GuMiho

Start time: Tuesday, Jul 18 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

by Wax

The RO16 saw the GSL bid some unfortunate farewells, with playoff-caliber players like Bunny and RagnaroK bowing out early. Who will survive the even fiercer crucible of the RO8 and reach the final four?

Solar

While we usually use the GSL’s official player order for the previews, it just feels right to frame this group as Solar’s story. After last season’s all-Terran final four, I can’t help but see him as the determined anime protagonist going up against the sinister Terran clan.

Just imagine this scene after Solar took down Ryung in the RO16: ominous figures emerge from the shadows and cackle ‘you’ve only defeated the weakest one among us, muahahaha.’ Then, they send Cure to put Solar’s face in the dirt, but spare his life because he’s too weak to be worth killing. A determined Solar gets up and strikes down Ryung again (who’s been given a second chance to prove himself by his brethren), but the other Terrans are long gone. Now, as Solar chases after these dangerous foes, he wonders what he must do to defeat them and save the world from their vile clutches.

Some of you may think this is extremely rosy framing for Solar, given his lengthy history of underperforming in GSL Code S. And, while I can’t refute that point, who else can the non-Terrans turn to at this point in time? Solar was the highest placing GSL Zerg at the last two international majors, finishing in the top four of ESL Masters Summer and placing runner-up at HomeStory Cup 23. Not only that, but herO and Dark have both faltered at the wrong time, which basically makes Solar our anti-Terran hero by default.

Does he actually have what it takes to reach the RO4? Looking at his record against Korean Terrans since January 23 (current balance patch + ladder maps change date), he has a fairly pedestrian 60% match win-rate. A portion of that record is buoyed by wins against the weaker Terrans at the fringe of the Korean scene—I’d say he’s a tad under 50% against the real, Code S quality Terrans.

While that doesn’t sound encouraging heading into this group, it’s worth noting that there aren’t many players who straight-up crush Solar. Against ByuN, he’s trailing slightly with a 7-8 match record since Jan 23. Vs GuMiho, he’s ahead with a 7-4 match record. And, perhaps most surprisingly, he’s an even 2-2 against Maru, even though Maru has has infamously dominated him over their long-term careers. Really, it’s just Cure who’s been killing Solar in the current map/balance meta (3-9 record)—against anyone else, I think Solar can use his solid macro play to grind his way to 50/50 odds of winning.

So, does that mean I’m actually going to pick him to advance? We’ll…

ByuN

Unfortunately, one of the reasons I’m optimistic about Solar’s chances is the same reason I’m pessimistic about ByuN. Yup, we’re at the repetitive “ByuN’s wrists” part of the GSL preview.

Wait, can I just copy paste ByuN’s RO16 preview? Let’s see what I wrote back then:

“…ByuN continues to be an excellent player online, and has a good chance of advancing if he can play at 100%. However, concerns with his non-gameplay issues are at a high point at the moment, and I just can’t pick him to advance this time around.”

In hindsight, I don’t think it needs too much revision, even though I was dead wrong. Yes, he did play very well in the RO16, going through in first place (wins vs RagnaroK and NightMare) without any problems in terms of gameplay or wrist health. But, c’mon, that’s just the RO16. We all know what’s going to happen when he feels some real pressure in the later rounds. ByuN makes me recall “Bomber’s Law,” one of the older memes in TL.net lore.

Bomber’s Law: Bomber will always disappoint.

Corollary to Bomber’s Law: If Bomber does not disappoint, it will be in order to set up a bigger disappointment later.

Sadly, that’s where I stand with offline-ByuN at the moment. It’s encouraging every time he advances a round, but you spend every second worrying that it’s all about to blow up in his face.

The only difference this time around is that ByuN recently started wearing wristbands on GuMiho’s recommendation. ByuN himself was skeptical about the efficacy of this measure, but he seemed to have the mindset of ‘hell, why not try everything?’ If this somehow does end up being the difference between another ByuN collapse and a glorious victory, then I guess we’ll have another reason to call GuMiho the ‘GumiGod.’

GuMiho

Speaking of GuMiho, it’s very clear that he’s the god of chaos in the StarCraft II pantheon. You just never know what to expect from a GuMiho game, whether it’s his choice in strategies or his level of play.

A month ago, you wouldn’t have pegged GuMiho as one of the Terran ‘oppressors’ as he was delivering largely middling results since his Code S return (though he did make a great run to the Code S semis in Season 2 of 2022). However, ever since he went on an incredible run to the ESL Masters finals, getting BO5 wins against Cure, Maru, and Solar along the way, he’s forced everyone to reevaluate his level. Not only that, but the latter two are players in this very group.

GuMiho’s 3-0 against Solar at ESL Masters was quite the shock to me, since he won two of those games in fairly straight-forward macro games. GuMiho’s mechanics and micro have been a weakness since his return from the military, and I’d expect ‘average’ level GuMiho to get crushed by average Solar in standard games. I feel like what happened at ESL Masters was GuMiho having a personal 99th percentile best day, and I’m pretty doubtful that he can recreate that performance at will. Still, with the GSL RO8 being a BO3 format, he might be able to cheese/strategize his way to a victory.

I actually think GuMiho’s 3-2 upset against Maru is more replicable. Back in Sweden, GuMiho leaned on a mass-Viking/mech style, which really seemed to disorient the ONSYDE ace. It’s such an unorthodox style that I don’t know if Maru can really prepare for it with a few days of practice. Not only that, but GuMiho can mind-game around the expectation that he’ll be playing two-Starport openers and try to apply some unexpected twists.

Maru

GuMiho, Solar, and even ByuN got better results than Maru at ESL Masters Summer, but we all know that he’s still the final boss in GSL Code S. The G6L winner and reigning champion made RO16 advancement look like a mere formality, dispatching TY and Classic by 2-0 scores.

While it’s never a good idea to bet against Maru in the GSL, all three of his potential match-ups in the group have complications. As mentioned above, Solar finally started to hit back against Maru in 2023, going an even 2-2 in matches on the year. One of his wins even came in the relatively high stakes Gamers8 qualifier (although Maru did choose to play weird strategies in that series), so you can’t even say it was due to Maru taking it easy in smaller events.

There’s also the TvT factor. Maru’s match against TY in the RO16 wasn’t the toughest TvT test in the world (even if TY proved himself good enough to beat Bunny), especially compared to potential matches against ByuN and GuMiho. Both of those Terrans managed to steal high-profile BO5 series off of Maru in the last year (ByuN in Super Tournament 2, GuMiho at ESL Masters), and are a big part of the reason we don’t consider Maru’s TvT to be utterly invincible anymore.

In the end, I’m really only pointing out Maru’s minor weaknesses to keep things interesting—we all know he’s the obvious favorite to advance in first place. After all, last season’s final four preview ended by basically saying it was inevitable that Maru was going to win the championship. Until Dark or herO get back into top form, I’m afraid most Maru previews are going to follow a similar pattern.