Code S Season 3 – Finals Preview: Maru vs RagnaroK

2022 GSL Code S Season 2 – Grand FinalsCode S Season 3 comes to a close this Saturday with what appears to be one of the worst finals mismatches in tournament history. In one corner, there’s the four-time champion Maru who seeks to set a historic record by winning his fifth. In the other corner, there’s RagnaroK, who is playing in the first finals of his eleven-year career.

Will the finals be a mere coronation ceremony for Maru’s G5L? Or will the Code S finals prove to be as unpredictable and as wild as the rest of the tournament, and deliver one of the most shocking upsets ever?

Beginning to Feel Like a Rag God

by Mizenhauer

Exactly who is RagnaroK?

If you asked me, I’d tell you his greatest achievements were riding the pine for CJ Entus, earning the semi-ironic nickname “Rag God” among TL.net regulars, and beating INnoVation in the opening round of SSL Season 1 in 2016. I also liked the weird ZvT he played in 2018.

I’d tell you that he was just another pro. After a decade of plying his trade, he had little to show for it. He wasn’t a Proleague ace or a major tournament winner. He wasn’t even someone who had an outside shot of spiking an event. He was a member of the rank and file—mired in a purgatory where he existed to lose to those actually capable of becoming a champion.

To be fair to him, my memory was somewhat skewed. I’d seen Ragnarok lose a lot in Proleague over the years, but I didn’t watch him extensively until 2018. He had a unique twist on StarCraft that was fascinating. He wasn’t Impact, who made his living off timing attacks and all-ins, but Ragnarok attacked more than he defended and there was an immediately apparent aggressiveness to how he approached the game. He did his best to play as standard as he could, but he looked his best when he embraced his inherent strangeness and played on his terms.

Color me surprised then when I first saw that not only Ragnarok had dismantled his opening group in this year’s first season of Code S, but that he had made it far enough to finish in 5th place. A quick perusal of Liquidpedia showed me that yes, I had missed a similar stretch in 2019 where Ragnarok reached the RO12 in the IEM World Championship and the Round of 8 in Season 3 of Code S. Other than that brief surge, however, the years since seemed typically Ragnarok-esque. He remained good enough to chain a few wins together in the right conditions and win some praise from hipster fans, but as long as he existed beneath the ceiling he had inadvertently constructed, he was going to eternally remain as he always had been.

Heading into 2022’s Code S Season 2, I didn’t put much faith in Ragnarok duplicating his miracle run from the season prior. Fan opinion and statistics were judging him more kindly than in the past, but I had years of evidence telling me of the sad end to come. Ragnarok would eventually be forced from his comfort zone, he would fail to adapt, and his cheese would fall flat. I’d seen it too many times before to second guess myself.

Somehow, instead of shirking from the moment and slipping into obscurity, Ragnarok duplicated his miracle run of Season 1 and once more reached the Final Six. The road was rocky, but that’s what happens when one’s playstyle revolves around forcing the issue. Ragnarok was making the deepest runs of his career and I had to give him credit. But when he faced off against the big names in the highest rounds, his strategies were constantly found wanting.

Ragnarok didn’t have to wait long for his first test of Season 3. In the Winner’s Match of Group D, he battled Creator, himself only recently removed from reaching his first Code S final. The resurgent Protoss pressed the issue from the get-go. But Ragnarok showed patience. He didn’t rush headlong off creep, instead steadily amassing his forces and defending expertly in the second and third games. In the Round of 10, he bucked the trend of advancing from his group in third place, as he defeated herO, GuMiho, Bunny and Solar without dropping a match. He was impressive from start to finish, still willing to dictate the tempo of a tilt, but equally able in the late game should his opponent steer the game in that direction.

Ragnarok’s 4-0 record booked him a spot in the semifinals, but he still had to wait to discover his opponent. With Ragnarok back at home, GuMiho rattled off back to back reverse sweeps to earn himself a slot opposite the Alpha X Zerg. The Round of 10 already forgotten, the Towel Terran had the wind in his sails. Even when Ragnarok took a 2-0 lead, it still didn’t feel as if the match was his. He had looked imperious in game two, but who was to say he would bring that form to the next game. Sure, I was cheering for Ragnarok the entire way, but he had never before had he reached this level and it seemed almost fitting for him to fall short this close to the precipice.

And, then, GuMiho won game three. After another 15 minutes of game time he tied the series at 2-2. Events were transpiring exactly as they were supposed to. Ragnarok was only fulfilling prophecy. It was the only result in fitting with a lifetime of underachieving.

Or so it seemed. Because as much as Ragnarok has evolved from the 2018 version of him that I found so curious, he never forgets who he is. In game five on Data-C, Ragnarok opened with seven roaches right off the bat and marched them straight across to GuMiho natural. GuMiho defended relatively well, but he lost six SCV’s to the timing. Suddenly down 20 workers, GuMiho’s attempts at harassment were easily rebuffed by queens. All this gave Ragnarok the space to identify GuMiho’s mech composition and create the perfect counter with Corruptors and Swarm Hosts.

It was like all the best pieces of Ragnarok I had seen over the years were finally fitting together. He was more balanced. More deft in the late game. He sensed blood in the water now and didn’t over pursue if the time wasn’t right. It didn’t take long for GuMiho to tap out. Completely overwhelmed by Zerglings, Banelings and Locusts,, he GG’d, catapulting Ragnarok into finals of Code S for the first time in his 11 year career.

At the end of Ragnaro’s road waits Maru, who again finds himself needing to win but one more best-of-7 to lift the infamous G5L trophy. I think it’s fair to say that most fans will see Ragnarok like a victim in waiting, as Maru’s best chance to finally win Code S for the fifth time than anything else. Then again, nearly everyone assumed Maru would dispatch herO with ease in the Season 2 finals (myself included) and we all saw what happened there. Maru is the undisputed favorite to emerge victorious, but Ragnarok is playing the best StarCraft II of his career and seems to have realized his potential. Who’s to say he won’t make magic happen this one last time? Who’s to say Ragnarok can’t surprise me again? That nickname doesn’t have to be tinged with irony forever, Ragnarok. Just win this match, etch your name in the record books, and reclaim “Rag God” as a term that means something different entirely.

A Mere Formality?

by Poopi

After three failed attempts, it feels like it’s finally time. Maru will win his fifth Code S championship and claim the G5L trophy.

How could he not? This Code S finals match-up is one of the most one-sided in history, if not the most one-sided ever. For one, there’s the difference in resumes: Maru has already won four championships in GSL Code S, and 7 other major titles in other competitions (even more, if you want to include high-prestige events like the Asian Games or World Cyber Games). For RagnaroK, reaching this finals is already the best result of his career.

The head-to-head record is absurdly skewed in favor of Maru, as he holds a terrifying 21W-1L match record with an absurd 41W–7L map record (85.42% win rate) in those games. Maru’s single loss against RagnaroK happened to be in a BO1, during AfreecaTV’s BJ Destruction Match series of showmatches. The method of defeat? Maru had his proxy-Barracks cheese scouted, after which he took severe damage from a Roach-Ravager counter attack. On the other hand, Maru has methodically picked RagnaroK apart in both major and minor events, even directly selecting him as a weak opponent during one of the Code S group selections.

Although RagnaroK has a respectable Aligulac ZvT rating of 3111 and is ranked #5 at the time of writing, it pales in comparison to Maru’s 3616 rating which makes him by far the best player in the match-up. With those ratings, Aligulac gives Maru an 88.71% chance of victory. Even in Creator vs Rogue, another finals where the underdog seemed hopelessly outmatched, Creators still had around a 36% chance of winning according to the numbers. While Aligulac didn’t even exist at the time of the Nestea vs InCa GSL Finals from 2011—often regarded as the most one-sided finals in GSL history—you can backdate their estimated ratings and get a rough win percentage prediction. The win chance for Nestea would have been a ‘mere’ 80% or so, which demonstrates the statistical gap between Maru and RagnaroK.

Maru’s recent TvZ record is excellent as expected, going 11W-3L in matches since July with his only losses coming against Serral, Dark, and DRG. That loss to DRG in the Code S RO10 was a notable upset, but Maru quickly made up for it with a 30 minute 3-0 in the very next round. On the other hand, RagnaroK has a most modest 13W-8L record over the same period, beating up on weaker Terrans and going around 50/50 with his fellow Code S players.

However, predicting an easy win for Maru may not be the obvious choice as it seems on paper. Things look grim for RagnaroK, but there is an elephant in the room that must be addressed. Three elephants, in fact. Maru has failed in all three attempts to clinch the G5L trophy, despite being favorite each time: 2-4 vs TY (2020 Season 3), 1-4 vs Rogue (2021 Season 1), and 1-4 vs herO (2022 Season 2). Maru was a very slight favorite against TY, going by either TL.net user voting or Aligulac rating. He was certainly the statistical favorite against Rogue, even if Rogue had that offline BO7 x-factor on his side. Against herO he was basically the favorite in every regard, be it popular opinion, statistics, or aura. Regardless of his perceived chances, he lost all three of those finals convincingly.

That’s a shocking turnaround for Maru, considering he won all three Code S tournaments in 2018, and then won the first season of 2019 to take an unprecedented four Code S championships in a row. That run seemed to cement his status as the ultimate clutch player in GSL finals, yet his Korean career since that last GSL victory is more akin to soO’s.

Given how stark the turnaround was from being a perfect 4-0 in Code S finals to losing three in a row, fans had to wonder if the G5L trophy was cursed and that nobody could ever win it. While Maru is certainly the most vexed among those who sought this forbidden treasure, others have failed to capture it as well. Mvp only ever had one realistic chance of winning it, but his wrist issues and the meteoric rise of Life ended his pursuit. Rogue came very close when he won his fourth Code S earlier this year, but he crashed and burned in typical Rogue fashion in Season 2. After that, the call of military service abruptly ended his quest. Maybe this trophy is genuinely cursed? What other explanation do we have for Protoss’ five year winless streak in Code S ending, if not the primacy of an even more powerful force? I would bet that some fans even see this finals as the ultimate test for the curse itself. Given how one-sided the match-up is on paper, there is no way Maru would lose a BO7 to RagnaroK in ‘normal’ circumstances. Therefore, if RagnaroK beats Maru, it would validate the curse theory.

Even disregarding the G5L trophy itself, Maru’s mentality might have been shaken from all these high profile losses. Not only did he lose three Code S finals in the span of three years, he also lost a few other finals in the span of a few months in 2022: DH:Valencia vs Dark, TSL9 runner-up vs Serral. Maru spoke playfully about regretting joking at soO’s expense during his RO4 interview, and despite his light tone, it showed that the continued runner-ups ARE on his mind. Obviously, the players he lost to were much more accomplished than RagnaroK and were considered to be on a similar level to himself, but even a small mental disadvantage could give RagnaroK the opportunity he needs to pull off an unbelievable upset. What if he cheeses Maru to get a game one win, and that waters the seed of anxiety that’s already in Maru’s head?

We also have to put ourselves in the shoes of RagnaroK: how does it feel to play in your first GSL finals, against the guy who destroyed you at virtually each encounter? Will RagnaroK be able to handle the pressure and play at his recent, very high level of play? Or will he crumble under all that pressure, losing 0-4 or 1-4 to a confident Maru? We might even see both players play ‘bad’ and have a very enjoyable series full of scrappy games, but then I would still favor Maru in that scenario.

I once read a story about being teammates with Flash. You would think that practicing against such a formidable opponent would help you get better and beat other players. Yet, one of his practice partners basically said it was the complete opposite: getting destroyed by Flash over and over again made you forget how to win, and your results became worse vs other players too. At this point, it could be similar for RagnaroK. After losing over and over against Maru, how would you know how to beat him? The difference in confidence levels between those two players could be huge.

On the flipside, RagnaroK also knows he has nothing to lose. Nobody expects him to beat Maru, and reaching the finals is already a huge milestone—similar to Creator’s finals in season 1. This might actually take the pressure off his shoulders and allow him to play at his best.

Going by RagnaroK’s RO4 interview, it was hard to get a handle on where his head was really at. He seemed to have a very realistic view of his abilities, criticizing himself for not being able to defeat GuMiho more convincingly (he even slapped himself in the face between games). He also readily admitted he’d be hard pressed to beat Maru if he played the same level.

Having watched most of the series between RagnaroK and Maru, I can tell you that a non negligible portion of these games were kinda close. They were enough to let you take a glass half full point of view if you were a RagnaroK fan, saying he was able to keep up with Maru for a while before losing. Thus, while Maru should probably win this BO7 comfortably, you can at least draw up the scenario where RagnaroK has a fighting chance: Maru plays under a ton of pressure due to his recent finals losses, RagnaroK is in a great place mentally because he knows he’s playing with house money, and a couple of the build order rock-paper-scissor fights go RagnaroK’s way.

Unfortunately for RagnaroK, I don’t think Maru will be feeling much pressure in this match. He might have felt different if he was going up against Dark, herO or Serral again, but RagnaroK is not the kind of player he is likely to sweat. All those potential winning conditions existed for Creator against Rogue as well, but that ended in a rather one-sided series. There’s a high chance this finals ends that way as well.

RagnaroK is very good at mid game and late game ZvT, but he does not feel as solid in the early game as someone like Serral or Dark. Even without resorting to his famous turtle style, Maru could beat RagnaroK with 2-base all-ins or some of his more unorthodox TvZ openers like Mine drops or fast BC’s. And while RagnaroK did show some good turtle-busting ability against GuMiho, it would be another thing entirely to beat the absolute king of defensive Terran play. Really, only Serral (and briefly Dark at DH: Valencia) seems to know how to crash waves of units into Maru and prevent him from ever getting into a defensive stance.

As mentioned above, RagnaroK didn’t exactly have the cleanest performance in the semifinals, almost giving up a reverse sweep despite being the favorite on paper. On the other hand, Maru looked as good as ever in the semifinals versus herO, even if it was a different match-up. In particular, his multitasking looked fantastic, which is a skill that applies to every StarCraft II match-up. Overall, Maru looks to be in great form at the moment, and he’s facing an opponent he’s comfortable with. Maru’s tendency to go for risky builds when he’s ahead in the series leads me to believe a 4-0 is unlikely, so the 4-1 gentlemen’s sweep seems like the most likely outcome.

Prediction: Maru 4- 1 RagnaroK

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