College Football Top 25 Analysis & Betting Opportunities for Week 11

The disconnect between the AP Top 25 college football poll and the College Football Playoff rankings continued into Week 2, as the bias that the CFP committee has toward Power 5 programs remains largely unchanged. Unbeaten Cincinnati did slide up to #5 after Michigan State fell to Purdue, but the fact that they remain behind Oregon (who lost to unranked Stanford) defies logic. If Alabama doesn’t slide down from #2 after beating unranked LSU by six, there is definitely a problem in the system. Even so, this is the polling process that we have right now, so let’s take a look at this week’s rankings and look ahead to college football betting opportunities for the new slate of games.

NCAA News: Top 25 Analysis & Betting Opportunities for Week 11

CFP Top 25

North Carolina at #21 Pitt (-6.5) (O/U 74.5)

Thursday, November 11
Pitt scores 45.0 points per game, tops in the nation. North Carolina is close behind them at 38.9. So if you’re wondering why the over is astronomical, that’s why. Quarterbacks Kenny Pickett and Sam Howell are both healthy and have plenty of talent at the skill positions. The last nine games between these two teams, dating back 21 seasons, have all been decided by no more than seven points. So the over is an interesting proposition, and I’m going to take North Carolina to cover, as I think the last team with the ball wins this game.

North Carolina to cover: Bet the Game Today

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Cincinnati (-23.5) at South Florida

Friday, November 12
Cincinnati has to make statements each week to try and impress the CFP committee, and the last two weeks that added pressure has led to struggles against Tulane and Tulsa. The Bearcats have not covered in either of those two games, and tailback Jerome Ford has a leg injury that could render the Bearcats’ offense more one-dimensional. South Florida is 2-2 against the spread this season in games in which they were underdogs by 21 points or greater. I don’t see Cincinnati winning by more than three touchdowns this week.

South Florida to cover: Bet the Game Today

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#8 Oklahoma (-5.5) at #13 Baylor

Saturday, November 13
This game opened at Oklahoma -7 but has slid toward the Bears even though they lost at sub-.500 TCU last week. Oklahoma has won the last seven meetings in this rivalry, but the last three road wins have come by no more than ten points. Oklahoma comes out of the bye this week, while Baylor has to put the memories of that upset loss behind them, because the Sooners’ offense will be ready to put up points in a hurry. Oklahoma needs a blowout win against a team that the CFP committee rates five slots higher than the AP in order to start jumping close to the top four, and I expect them to take advantage of the opportunity.

Oklahoma to win and cover: Bet the Game Today

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#6 Michigan (-0.5) at Penn State

Saturday, November 13
Both of these teams have defenses ranked in the nation’s top ten. Michigan has lost five of six at Beaver Stadium. Which team will be able to run the ball more effectively? Jim Harbaugh’s record in these sort of red-letter games is not particularly promising, so I like Penn State to win the squeaker, especially as a home dog.

Nittany Lions to cover: Bet the Game Today

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