NCAA Football SU Picks and Predictions for Week 12

Is Alabama out of the CFP race? They do have two losses, and they won’t play for the SEC Championship. However, they looked solid in their 30-24 win over Ole Miss last week. Bryce Young threw three touchdown passes, and the defense held down the stretch, giving Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart all sorts of punishment in the fourth quarter and stopping the Rebels in the red zone with the game on the line. Imagine a scenario in which LSU beats Georgia handily for the SEC title. If Alabama routs Auburn, that would give them some more style points. If USC loses in the Pac-12 Championship (or somehow fails to make it), that would leave that conference out. TCU, while unbeaten, has not shown the ability to do much besides take advantage of teams that either have (or have since) piled up at least three losses or have had to use their backup quarterback in their matchup. Clemson got routed by a Notre Dame team that, the very next week, almost lost to Navy and has already lost to Marshall – at home. This is a year when the committee could give Nick Saban another shot at a national championship, even when the losses seem to indicate that shouldn’t happen. What can we expect in Week 12? Here are some of our top straight up NCAA Football betting picks.

 

NCAA News: SU Picks for Week 12

 

Saturday, November 19

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Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (+1100) at Florida State Seminoles
(-2500) (12:00 pm ET, ESPN3)

Florida State has beaten Georgia Tech, Miami and Syracuse by a combined total of 98 points, allowing just 22 points in those games. It did help that the Hurricanes and the Orange are really struggling right now, but you can only play the schedule that you have. Quarterback Jordan Travis has thrown for 8.9 yards per attempt. The last two weeks, he hasn’t had that much of a burden because the Seminoles have jumped out to early leads.

Louisiana has a defense that will surprise the Seminoles. They permit just 6.9 yards per passing attempt and have the seventh-best coverage grade in the nation according to Pro Football Focus. Against the run, they rank in the top half of the nation in rushing success rate allowed and defensive line yards. They rank 21st in Finishing Drives Allowed, while Florida State ranks just 54th in Offensive Finishing Drives.

Louisiana has not done well moving the ball themselves, finishing outside the nation’s top 100 in success rate. This seems like a no-brainer pick against the spread, with Florida State favored to win by 24 points. However, I look at the value available to me, and I think about the possibility of a trap game. Louisiana is a Sun Belt team, while the Seminoles no doubt look at themselves as the national cream of the crop; they also have a win over LSU this year. At 7-3 (5-3 ACC), the Seminoles are not headed to a conference championship game, and Louisiana did win at Marshall – the same Marshall that dusted off Notre Dame in the shadow of Touchdown Jesus. I’m not putting huge money on this, but each week we see massive upsets happening in college football. Give me Louisiana to win.

 

Washington State Cougars (-180) at Arizona Wildcats (+155)
(2:00 pm ET, Pac-12 Network)

Arizona came out of nowhere to knock off UCLA on the road, 34-28, ending the Bruins’ playoff hopes. Jayden de Laura played out of his mind, going 23 of 29 for 312 yards and two scores. De Laura is a gunslinger in the classic Brett Favre mold: he has only thrown eight interceptions despite a tendency to put the ball in perilous situations, but he has put the ball on the ground 11 times. De Laura started his college career at Washington State, so expect him to put even more pressure on himself – and put the ball in danger as well. The Arizona rush defense permitted six yards per carry last week, so if Washington State can balance its offense, it should be fine.

Washington State has a secondary in the top 30 in passing success rate allowed and coverage grade. Cam Ward has changed games with his legs and his arm, and the Cougars throw over 60% of the time. He only averages 6.8 yards per attempt, but that’s got a lot to do with pay calling. The Cougar running defense ranks in the top 25 in stuff rate and defensive line yards, and they can run the ball well when they dial it up. Washington State to win.

 

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