Odds Shift as Injuries Hit Quarterbacks on Playoff Teams

Odds Shift as Injuries Hit Quarterbacks on Playoff Teams

Time Stamp: December 5, 2023 2:29 PM

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The NFL injury bug has claimed another victim: starting quarterbacks.

Six starting AFC QBs will be unable to suit up this weekend, including starters on four of the top seven teams in the standings. Now, the race for the playoffs has become a war of attrition more than a race to assemble the best roster possible.

Which teams are best poised to withstand the injury onslaught and which teams should the league be on the lookout for? Let’s take a look.

Quarterbacks fill the injury report

QB injuries tend to destroy seasons. After all, how is a team supposed to survive in a quarterback-driven league without their most important player?

This year, there have been so many injuries that teams have enough reason to keep fighting as if nothing’s changed. Based on standings heading into Week 14, a random AFC playoff team is more likely to have a backup under center than a starter, which has greatly increased the parity between the teams.

Before we continue, a quick look at the injury report:

  • Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) – high ankle sprain, week-to-week
  • Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh Steelers ) – high ankle sprain, week-to-week
  • Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns) – fractured shoulder, out for season
  • Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts) – shoulder sprain, out for season
  • Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) – torn wrist ligament, out for season
  • Aaron Rodgers (New York Jets) – torn Achilles, out for season
  • Kirk Cousins (Minnesota Vikings) – torn Achilles, out for season
  • Derek Carr (New Orleans Saints) – concussion and shoulder/rib injuries, week-to-week
  • Daniel Jones (New York Giants) – torn ACL, out for season

Eight of the nine players on that list either played in the postseason a year ago or were in line to do so this year based on their team’s record.

Achieving postseason success with a backup QB is not impossible. Former Philadelphia Eagles backup Nick Foles is the best example of that, as he took over for MVP favorite Carson Wentz and led his team all the way to the Super Bowl.

 Foles was named Super Bowl MVP

In that game that has since been immortalized in history, Foles went 28-43 for 373 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception. The Eagles beat the New England Patriots 41-33, and Foles was named Super Bowl MVP.

Nine QBs that started the year as backups have gone on to win the Super Bowl. Notable names on that list include Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, and Terry Bradshaw, among others.

Impact on team odds

Looking ahead to this weekend’s games, only one of the four AFC playoff candidates dealing with QB injuries is an underdog, while three are favorites, per FanDuel Sportsbook. Two of them – the Browns and the Jaguars – play one another in a game in which the Browns are favored by three points. 

Only four teams down their starting QB are underdogs this weekend, while five are favored. This speaks to the competitiveness of the teams as a collective and the parity that exists since many teams are dealing with significant injuries.

Looking at futures odds, the three teams whose quarterbacks don’t have an injury – the Kansas City Chiefs (+220), Baltimore Ravens (+270), and Miami Dolphins (+310) – have the best odds to win the conference. However, this is to be expected since they also have the best records.

currently out of the playoff picture but have healthy star QBs, are next in the oddsmakers’ list

Real movement can be noticed below the Jaguars, who are fourth in odds to win the AFC (+1100). The Buffalo Bills (+2000) and Houston Texans (+2300), both of whom are currently out of the playoff picture but have healthy star QBs, are next in the oddsmakers’ list of teams most likely to win the conference title. 

Only after those teams do the Browns, Steelers, and Colts, who would all make the playoffs if they started the day of writing, check in.

Lawrence likely has the largest impact on how the odds could swing of all injured QBs. The expected drop-off from him to C.J. Beathard is extreme, but he also has a chance to return this season. 

That’s why the oddsmakers haven’t written the Jags off, since they hold a one-game lead in the AFC South and have the tiebreaker.

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