Tennessee vs Alabama Odds and Picks (Dec. 29)

• Alabama is a 1.5-point favorite over Tennessee on Wednesday
• Tennessee is 5-1 ATS in its last six
• Read below for analysis and a betting prediction

No. 19 Alabama (9-3) is a 1.5-point home favorite over Tennessee is the SEC opener for both at 9 pm ET Wednesday on ESPN2. The Crimson Tide fell to a season-low in the AP Top 25 after a 79-78 loss to Davidson the last time out in the C.M. Newton Classic in semi-neutral Birmingham, Ala.

No. 14 Tennessee (9-2) will play its first game in seven days, since a 77-73 home victory over then-No. 6 Arizona.

Tennessee vs Alabama Odds

Odds from FanDuel on Dec. 28.

The Crimson Tide played Davidson last week only after its scheduled opponent, 11-0 Colorado State, withdrew because of Covid issues in its program.  Following the Tennessee game, Alabama does not play again until it plays at Florida on Jan. 5. The Tide has won 15 straight home games.

Playing ’em All

Alabama and Tennessee were not afraid to meet the best during pre-conference play, and both made it work. The Crimson Tide  beat No. 3 Gonzaga, No. 14 Houston and Missouri Valley conference favorite Drake within a 16-day span in late November and early December.

Most impressive was the Crimson Tide’s 91-82 victory over Gonzaga in a neutral-site game at Seattle. The Tide has played the 16th most difficult non-conference schedule, according to KenPom. Its losses are to Iona, Memphis and Davidson. The Tide trailed Davidson by 13 in the second half, but Jahvon Quinerly missed a potential game-tying free throw with four seconds remaining.

Tennessee never trailed in 77-73 victory over  No. x Arizona in its last game Dec. 22 and has beaten North Carolina. Its losses are to No. xx Villanova and Texas Tech.

Freshmen Stepping Up

Alabama guard 6’3 JD Davison and Tennessee guard 6′ Kennedy Chandler, McDonald’s All-Americans a year ago, have been two of the most productive freshmen in the SEC this season.

Davison is averaging 8.7 points, 4.9 rebounds and  4.5 assists in 24.3 minutes off the bench as the Crimson Tide’s top. bench threat, although he averages the fourth-most minutes on the team. He had 20 points and four threes against Gonzaga and scored 10 points against Houston.

Chandler leads the Volunteers in scoring at 14.0 points per game and in assists at 5.3 per, which in second in Division I among true freshmen. Chandler has scored or assisted on 33.6 percent of the Vols’ points.

Both teams play a perimeter-based offense, providing their backcourts plenty of opportunity. Alabama guards 6’3 Jaden Shackelford (16.8 points, 6.6 rebounds), 6’1 Jahvon Quinerly (14.7 points, 4.4 assists) and 6’6 Keon Ellis (12.4 points, 6.5 rebounds) appear to have the green light from distance.

Shackelford is averaging 3.4 3-pointers per game and is shooting 41.4 percent from distance.

Tennessee junior guard 6’3 Santiago Viscovi is the only other Vol scoring in double figures, at 13.3.  Sixth-year senior 6’9 John Fulkerson is averaging 9.9 points and 6.6 rebonds after a getting 24 points and 10 rebounds against Arizona.

Defensive Differences

Davidson shot 53.4 percent from the field and made 12 of 24 three-pointers against Alabama, both highs for a Crimson Tide opponent this season. but those numbers are atypical of the Tide’s greater body of work. Opponents are shooting 43.1 percent for the season.

With Herb Jones, the Tide finished second in KenPom defensive efficiency last season. They rank 53rd now.

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1️⃣1️⃣ @AuburnMBB
1️⃣4️⃣ @Vol_Hoops
1️⃣6️⃣ @LSUBasketball
1️⃣8️⃣ @KentuckyMBB
1️⃣9️⃣ @AlabamaMBB #SECMBB

— Southeastern Conference (@SEC) December 27, 2021

The Volunteers have held opponents to 38.7 percent shooting from the floor, ranked No. 38 in Division I, and only Tennessee Tech (47.3) has shot more than 45 percent against them. Tennessee held Arizona to 44.8 percent shooting and 18 points below its season scoring average.

By the Numbers

Alabama is 6-6 ATS, 0-4 in its last four, including losses to Memphis and Davidson and a six-point victory over Jacksonville State as a 19-point favorite.

Tennessee is No. 9 in KenPom in adjusted efficiency margin and Alabama is 18th, and they are ranked highly on different ends of the floor. Tennessee is No. 2 in defensive efficiency and Alabama is No. 9 in offensive efficiency.

Alabama is 5-3 straight up and 6-2 ATS in the last eight in the series, having won and covered both last season. Tennessee won the last game in Tuscaloosa in 2020 but is 1-2 straight up and ATS in the last three there.

Alabama has played well in its biggest games, and this is another one. Take the Tide in the first game of what will be an ultra- competitive SEC race.

The pick: Alabama -1.5 (-110)

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