Aaron Rodgers’ Injury Destroys New York Jets’ Title Odds

Aaron Rodgers’ Injury Destroys New York Jets’ Title Odds

Time Stamp: September 13, 2023 5:43 PM

Worst-case scenario for the Jets

New York Jets fans were hyped beyond hyped for this NFL season, as they had acquired all-time great quarterback Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers in the offseason and had visions of the Super Bowl swimming in the heads.

it feels like the season is over before it ever got going

And it all came crashing down Monday night. On his fourth play as a Jet, Rodgers tore his Achilles tendon and is out for the season. The Jets still pulled off the win over division rival Buffalo Bills in overtime, but Jets fans are beside themselves, as it feels like the season is over before it ever got going. Jets bettors feel that way, too, as with Rodgers’ devastating injury, the Jets’ championship odds have nosedived.

Going into Week 1, bookmakers had the Jets as one of the Super Bowl favorites. DraftKings’ odds for the Jets to win it all were +1,600, behind just a few teams. They are now +6,000, firmly in the middle of the pack. And the odds would be longer if their defense wasn’t elite.

From one of the favorites to a longshot

The Jets odds to win the AFC have deteriorated from +1,000 on DraftKings to +3,000 and from +270 to +600 to win the AFC East. They were odds-on favorites to make the playoffs, whether as a division winner or a Wild Card, but now they are not expected to make the postseason at all, their odds going from -130 to +215.

The Jets will now have to lean on backup quarterback Zach Wilson, the second pick in the 2021 draft, but who has also been one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league the last couple seasons.

The Jets’ fall is naturally helping the odds of other teams. In their division, the Miami Dolphins are now the favorites at +135, with the Bills close behind at +145. The Bills had been the favorites in the preseason, but have fallen slightly because of the Week 1 loss. The Dolphins were +300 before the season (according to BetMGM, as that’s the sportsbook for which I have historical odds, but it’s probably close to DraftKings).

Also hurt were the Packers, who will receive a 2024 second-round draft pick from the Jets as part of the Rodgers trade package. If he would have played 65% of the team’s snaps, that pick would have been upgraded to a first-rounder.

The other winner from the Rodgers injury (that sounds bad to say), aside from the obvious Super Bowl contenders and divisional opponents, is the Cleveland Browns, who were just barely on the wrong side of the odds in the preseason and now, helped by their upset win over the Cincinnati Bengals, are -215 to make the postseason on DraftKings.

Drink up!

There was another group of people who lost a big bet because Aaron Rodgers went down, but not in the traditional sense. Jack’s American Pub, a bar on Milwaukee’s Lower East Side, created a promotion before the season called “Jets Lose, You Win” to give patrons a reason other than spite to root against the former Packers great.

six times the pub’s normal Monday night sales because of the promo

Anyone who opened a tab at least 15 minutes before a Jets game would get their drinks on the house (top shelf liquor excluded) if the Jets lost and Aaron Rodgers started the game. Pub owner Scott Schaefer told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that he did six times the pub’s normal Monday night sales because of the promo.

When Rodgers was hurt after just 75 seconds, customers began running up their bar tabs, assuming the Jets would lose. To their horror, the Xavier Gipson ran a punt back for a touchdown in overtime to give the Jets the unexpected victory over one of the best teams in the AFC. The house always wins.

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