2022 GSL Code S Season 2
RO20 Group D Preview: Trap, Astrea, Cure, RagnaroKby Wax
Code S Season 2 has been very unpredictable so far, and it doesn’t seem like that will change as we head into Group D of the Round of 20. At a glance, Trap and Cure seem like favorites to advance due to their superior resumes, but they’ve also fallen off from their peaks. On the other hand, Astrea and RagnaroK are proven upset-makers in big matches, and have a chance to take down anyone if they’re playing at their best.
Will this be the group that finally goes 100% chalk or will we have even more surprises in store?
Among the four players in the group, top seed Trap had the best Code S finish last season, getting all the way to the semifinals. The Freecs ace had gone through a lengthy slump ever since the map pool changed last October, so it must have been a relief to earn a high finish in Code S.
Still, Trap seems a long way off from his peak when he was arguably the #1 Protoss player in the world. In particular, his PvP has taken a big hit. Not only has his Aligulac rating gone downhill, but he also got completely outstrategized by Creator in the Code S semifinals (though Creator said luck had a lot to do with his build order wins). He hasn’t declined as much in the other match-ups as he can still hold his own against most of the players in competitive SC2, but you have to worry for him when he’s playing against the absolute top tier players—the brutal 0-3 drubbing he suffered at the hands of Dark at IEM Katowice comes readily to mind.
Luckily for Trap, there aren’t any Darks or Marus in this group, so he should be able to take care of business and advance… …Right? In a way, this group will be a litmus test to see if Trap has actually recovered from his slump, or if last season’s RO4 was just a temporary reprieve.
Given Trap’s PvP struggles, the ever-creative Astrea is an especially tricky first opponent. The American has returned to Korea after his pandemic-induced exile, and he’s picked up right where he left off. Back in the summer of 2020, Astrea managed to qualify for his first ever Code S tournament before being forced to return to America. Despite getting quickly eliminated by Dark and Impact, it was a marker of his rapid improvement. Two years later, Astrea has come back as a much improved player. It doesn’t really show up in his tournament results—his DHM: North America championship probably doesn’t count for much in the eyes of GSL elitists. However, he was good enough to qualify for the main event of IEM Katowice in two consecutive tournaments, he’s been a mainstay for Alpha X in the WTL, and he has elevated his Aligulac.com rating considerably through great play in smaller cups.
Given Astrea’s ability to come up with unique strategies, I think the long preparation time in GSL and the inclusion of non-ladder maps works in his favor. Also, he has a knack for playing up to the level of his opponent in big moments. He’s actually defeated Trap twice in the aforementioned IEM group stages, and he’s earned a number of big ties in the SCBOY Team Leagues against the likes of Dark and TY. Overall, I think he’s a player who could easily earn ‘Code S regular’ status, and maybe even make a deep playoff run if he’s playing especially well.
Cure, as is often the case, is one of the hardest players to rate. When he won the Code S championship back in Season 3 of 2021, I hoped it could be the turning point where he finally became a consistent title contender in major tournaments. Tragically, it turned out to be the wrong kind of turning point. Not only did Cure go on to disappoint in subsequent major tournaments (a second place finish in DHM: Last Chance being the single outlier), but he also lost dominion over his personal fief in the ESL weekly cups.
If ‘online-Cure’ is faltering, then what hope does ‘offline-Cure’ have? As if to drive that point home, the previous season of Code S saw the new ESL Open Cup king herO personally oust Cure from RO20, handing him losses in two BO3 series. Interestingly enough, Aligulac.com still sees Cure as the #8 player in the world. He may not be winning as many cups outright as before, but he’s still farming a lot of series wins in smaller online competitions. However, I fear that this may just be a mirage, and Cure is doomed to underperform yet again once the stakes are raised. Even if he advances from this group, that won’t allay my fears about what could happen in the next round.
Cure may not have been able to build upon Code S success, but at least he’s spurred others on to new heights. Inspired by Cure’s preparation-heavy style (some would say ‘cheesy’) that led him to a championship, RagnaroK showed us a completely new approach to Code S last season. Proxy-hatches and trickery figured heavily into his play, and he sometimes even played mind-games across weeks (he made some really clever tweaks to his strategies, under the assumption that his opponents would have scouted his previous games). The result was a career best top five finish in the GSL, earning wins against the likes of herO and Trap along the way.
I’m very curious to see if RagnaroK can keep his momentum going. ZvP mind games based around proxy Hatcheries and fake proxies were a huge part of his success last season, but everyone will know to watch out for those kinds of builds now. You don’t need a ton of build order variety to have sustained success as a so-called ‘strategic’ player (even sOs was more stubborn and predictable than his reputation suggests)—just enough to keep your opponents guessing between a few diametrically opposite options. This season, we’ll see if RagnaroK was just a one-hit wonder who relied on proxy Hatcheries, or if he has more hits to play.
Prediction: Despite their recent struggles, I still think Cure and Trap are favored over Astrea and RagnaroK in terms of mechanics and playing out standard macro games. However, it seems very unlikely the two underdogs are going to play straight-up, which makes this group very difficult to predict.
Astrea > Trap
PvP is chaotic, but Astrea has a history of beating Trap in big tournaments like IEM.
Cure > RagnaroK
RagnaroK hasn’t really shown great ZvT strategizing ability compared to his ZvP, and has a tendency to bait himself into playing macro games against stronger Terran players.
Cure > Astrea
Despite all his struggles, at least Cure’s TvP has held up relatively well.
RagnaroK > Trap
I’m banking on RagnaroK to come up with something especially sinister that will knock Trap out of the tournament.
Astrea > RagnaroK
This one is just my gut feeling, as I think Astrea is the better clutch player.
Cure and Astrea to advance.
