Code S RO8 Preview - Bunny, Solar, Dark, ByuN

Code S RO8 Preview – Bunny, Solar, Dark, ByuN

Time Stamp: May 10, 2023 12:53 PM

RO8 Group B Preview: Bunny, Solar, Dark, ByuN

Start time: Thursday, May 11 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

by Mizenhauer

Prediction #1: Heart

If Group A of the Round of 8 represented the glory of victory, with every player having won Code S at least once, then Ground B stands for the unending toil and fleeting success that one experiences as a professional gamer.

Consider the players in Group A. Maru is Maru. Classic might have only won Code S once, but he has been one of the best Protoss players in the world for the majority of the past decade, proving his championship pedigree time and again. Cure has been one of the strongest online players for nearly three years, and has the Code S championship to actually give that some meaning. Even GuMiho, current troubles aside, has the aura of a player who can beat anyone on his best day.

But wait—does Group B really compare so poorly? Let’s leave the top players of Dark and Maru aside for a moment. ByuN is a Code S and WCS World Champion. Solar has won just as many major Korean titles as GuMiho (a SSL and GSL a piece). Bunny, though lacking a Code S title, arguably reached the same reputational level as Cure during his peak 2022 run.

Why then, at least to me, did Group A seem so much more glamorous? It could be that I’m trapping the players in what I once called the Myth of Expectations back in 2017, where it’s near impossible for them to escape an already established reputation. Indeed, it turns out my opinion of these players has not changed much with time.

Even in 2017, ByuN’s glorious Code S and BlizzCon run at the end of 2017 was starting to feel more like a fluke than his new normal. He has bounced between the first and second tier of players since, and whatever success he has feels somewhat lesser compared to the greatness he achieved that one autumn.

Solar won Season 2 of SSL in 2016 and reached the finals of SSL Premier in 2017. He had already taken down DreamHack three times in 2014-15, but his abject failure in Proleague and penchant for dropping out of Code S in the opening round cast him as skilled, erratic, and unreliable. That’s not too dissimilar to Classic who had his fair share of shocking tournament exits, but somehow Solar got tagged with the word ‘inconsistent’ whereas Classic was called ‘mercurial’—a far more complementary and endearing term for essentially the same thing.

Out of everyone, Bunny’s reputation has changed the least. Despite an incredible run during the second half of 2022, Bunny looked far less impressive after the turn of the calendar. He may have 2-0’d his opening group of Code S, but the fact that he has never won a premier event despite taking to StarCraft II in 2013, casts him as fodder for the ascension of another.

Unlike the others, Dark benefits from the glow of the past, rather than a shadow. He was already one of the most hyped players in the world in 2017. He was consistently reaching the latter stages of events and was known as one of the best Korean Zergs alongside soO and Rogue. It would matter little if this particular group was held in 2017 or 2023—history affirms that Dark would be the betting favorite either way.

Painting in broad strokes, the long-term picture surrounding Dark, Bunny, Solar and ByuN has stayed the same. One might conclude that despite the peaks and valleys, players eventually settle into their place in the game’s hierarchy.

All that unnecessary pomp and excessive poetic flexing was merely to put me in the mindset to make my prediction using narrative as my only metric. Caring nothing for form, relative strength in a matchup, head-to-head record or map pool—here’s my prediction for Group D.

Bunny 1 – 2 Solar
Dark 2 – 0 ByuN
Dark 2 – 1 Solar
Bunny 2 – 0 ByuN
Solar 1 – 2 Bunny

Dark and Bunny to advance

Solar is already admonishing me for my predictions.

Prediction #2: Head

As the only player in Group B who doesn’t crack Aligulac.com’s top 10, Bunny looks like the least likely one to escape group B. He may be playing the best StarCraft II of his life over the past 12 months, having reached at least the Round of 4 in Code S and the finals of DreamHack Masters: Atlanta. But since the start of 2023 he has looked significantly less impressive, actually having a sub 50% win-rate with a 14-17 map record. herO is the only ‘top-tier’ player he beat during that time, which bodes poorly headed into a group of players who all look to be in great form. Making it worse, he faces Solar in his first match, with the Zerg enjoying a stretch of ZvT success where he’s taken down the likes of Maru, Cure, and ByuN.

Solar has spent the majority of his career in the logjam that is the second tier of Korean progamers, but he’s recently creeping into the territory of title contender. Part of it is due to a thinning Korean StarCraft II scene, but he’s made some real strides against the seemingly immovable elite-tier players such as Maru and Dark. Should he beat Bunny as expected in the initial match, he’ll face a tough challenge in ByuN or Dark. Dark holds a 6-3 record against Solar this year, but Solar has actually gotten the better end of his duels with ByuN, having won four of their seven meetings since the start of January. ZvT is also Solar’s strongest matchup with a 68% map win-rate in 2023, and it’s quite possible that he’ll be able to advance on the back of his excellence in that matchup. Even if he does fall to Dark in the Winner’s Match, Solar will get another solid shot at advancing to the Round of 4 of Code S for the first time in his career.

Dark enters Group B as the favorite to continue his pursuit of his second Code S title, but his toughest test of the day may very well come in his opening match. Dark is 56-14 this year in games against Terran, but his series score against ByuN is an even 4-4. Their match could be the most fiercely contested of any in the group—with Aligulac giving Dark a slight edge—54% chance to win as opposed to ByuN’s 46%.

Should Dark manage to dispatch ByuN, however, he’ll likely have a tough match against Solar in the winners’ match. Solar already beat him 4-3 in the grand finals of Super Tournament 2, and Aligulac odds see a potential rematch as being close to 50/50. If ByuN gets the better of Dark, then Dark will almost certainly reach the group’s final match.

Like Solar, ByuN has steadily crept into the upper echelon of Korean StarCraft II. While he may not have experienced the same tournament success as Dark, he currently holds the number three spot in Aligulac’s top 10 ratings. ByuN has little reason to fear his groupmates—he’s a slight underdog against Dark, but a moderate favorite against Solar and heavy favorite against Bunny. In fact, it’s quite possible that the largest obstacle in ByuN’s path is himself. StarCraft II has taken its toll on ByuN and years of injuries and pain, both real and psychosomatic, have led to disappointing finishes in offline events. His dominance online, however, cannot be understated. In fact, ByuN’s pair of championships in 2016 were heralded by months of tremendous online success (albeit, in a much different online landscape). He has continued to perform excellency from the comfort of his own home over the past seven years and stands to gain the most from AfreecaTV’s decision to hold the Round of 8 of Code S online for the first time in the event’s history.

Predictions:

Aligulac.com gives Dark (64.56%) and ByuN (54.92%), while Solar barely trails in third place with a (51.96% chance). Unfortunately for Bunny, despite his impressive run to end 2022, is predicted to struggle with 28.55% chances of advancing.

Bunny 0 – 2 Solar
Dark 2 – 1 ByuN
Dark 2 – 0 Solar
Bunny 0 – 2 ByuN
Solar 1 – 2 ByuN

Dark and ByuN to advance

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