Code S RO8 Preview - Maru, GuMiho, Cure, Classic

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RO8 Group A Preview: Maru, GuMiho, Cure, Classic

Start time: Monday, May 08 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

by Wax

Code S enters unfamiliar territory this season, with the round-of-8 being played out both as a group stage and in an online setting. While fans will certainly miss the heightened stakes of single elimination BO5 matches, it could be good news for players who would have drawn dead in certain playoff match-ups.

Consider Group A—Cure, Classic, and GuMiho might have been afflicted with deep despair had they drawn Maru in a typical bracket, but in a four way group, they can still hold out hope for that second place spot.

Maru

Actually, let’s reexamine the notion that Maru is an absolute lock to take first place in this three-Terran group (with apologies to Classic, I don’t think his PvT has reached a level where he can threaten Maru). Advancing from the RO16 wasn’t a total formality for the G5L winner, as he had to tough out a 2-1 victory against ByuN in the winners’ match. As it turned out, that close series against ByuN wasn’t a blip, as Maru proceeded to lose two more series to ByuN in the following week in the Kung Fu Cup and the KSL weekly (the KSL win was particularly impressive from ByuN, who won in fairly straight-up games).

Sure, ByuN is arguably the second best TvT player in the world, and the second best player is bound to pick up some wins against the best player every now and then. But when you look at Maru’s overall TvT results from the last six months—which includes earthshaking upsets like his 1-4 to Olivera at IEM Katowice, and relatively minor but still surprising hiccups like a 1-1 vs Kelazhur in the WTL—he’s looking the most vulnerable he’s ever been in TvT since TY retired.

Yet, even with the gap closed somewhat, I still believe Maru is the top TvT player in the world and a huge favorite to advance from this group. That’s just how hard he dominated the match-up at his peak. The most I can say against Maru here is that I can’t make him an absolute lock to take first place.

GuMiho

GuMiho is the toughest player in the group to rate, as his level of play fluctuates the most from match to match. He’s talked about his hands/mechanics being inconsistent after his military service, which tracks with what he’s shown us in his games. While he’s never been the most gifted player in terms of hand speed, he can still occasionally hit a hyper-frenetic rhythm of multi-tasking that matches Maru and Clem in terms of creating sheer chaos for an opponent. When things aren’t clicking, however, things can get rather one-sided.

GuMiho’s RO16 results were encouraging headed into this TvT-athon, as he took down Ryung in consecutive mirrors to advance in second place. Playing at 100%, GuMiho has a fighting chance against Cure in straight-up games. However, he will have to hope he can capitalize on a poor outing from Maru if he’s to win his initial TvT. For instance, the overaggressive Medivac-Tank harass that cost Maru dearly against Oliveira in Katowice has been something of a recurring problem, so GuMiho might want to keep an eye out for that. Also, Maru reminded us of his love of proxy-Barracks cheeses against ByuN in the RO16, and he may be tempted to pull the same move against GuMiho. ByuN happened to miss with his scouting, but GuMiho stands to benefit if he’s lucky.

Again, those are just long-shot scenarios, and GuMiho will be hard-pressed to advance. With Classic playing his best post-military StarCraft as of late, GuMiho could be in for an uphill battle against all three opponents.

Cure

The legend of online-Cure was starting to wane in 2023, but it’s become THE story of the StarCraft II landscape over the last couple of weeks (well, at least I think it SHOULD have). The beast of Battle.net has been playing at a tremendous level, winning two Kung Fu Cups, ending Dark’s ESL Open Cup win streak, and leading ABYDOS to an ace-match win over title favorites DKZ Gaming in the WTL. Oh, since I guess Code S now counts as an online tournament, he also cruised through his Code S group with 2-0’s over Solar and herO.

Before, this would be where I added the familiar reminder that Cure’s online form doesn’t carry over to the GSL. But at least for this tournament, I can forestall that warning for one more round, as online-Cure can still play up until the RO8.

Instead, here’s a different caveat to consider: much of Cure’s online success has been due to his monstrous TvP, where he’s currently on a 26-match unbeaten streak (it may be even longer by the time you read this). This is certainly good news ahead of his opening match versus Classic, but the follow-up TvT’s will be much thornier. In the Terran mirror, Cure has been closer to a ‘one of many good players’ level, compared to the ‘reduce opponents to subatomic particles’ level of his PvT. All versions of Cure—online and offline—have struggled against Maru, and even GuMiho has a puncher’s chance of taking Cure down. A second place finish is still my prediction for Cure, but it would be far more preferable for him to face Classic, not GuMiho, in a decider match.

Classic

Poor Classic! Up until the RO8 group draw, I was feeling the faintest vibes of ’19 Classic. That year, Classic was able to score some big moral victories during a dark time for Protoss, notably a 3-2 over Rogue in the BlizzCon RO8 and a 4-3 over Dark in the Code S semis.

Starting at IEM Katowice 2023, Classic started to painstakingly inch his way back up to that level, stringing together a number of notable results. In Katowice, he far overperformed expectations by escaping the RO36 and finishing 2-3 in a difficult RO24 group. That earned him a chance to play in Gamers Without Borders, where he seized the unlikely opportunity by taking down GuMiho and RagnaroK to qualify for Gamers8. Then, in this current season of Code S, he defeated INnoVation and Creator to get past the first round for the first time in his post-military career.

Not exactly mind-blowing results, but it suggested Classic was building momentum and wasn’t merely on some flukey three-month run. Obviously, contending for a Code S title was out of the question. But, maybe, just maybe, he could sneak into the semifinals and save face for the Protoss faction one more time.

Unfortunately, Classic has been handed one of the most brutal group-draws possible, facing the two best TvP players on the planet in Maru and Cure. He doesn’t just need a PvT equivalent of his BlizzCon DT-Blink rush—he needs several such ace cards up his sleeve if he’s to advance.

Prediction

Classic’s recent games suggest he’s very keen on playing PvT with a safe and predictable Phoenix-Colossus style, which I think would be utterly disastrous against Maru and Cure. I hope it’s all part of a devilishly clever mind-game, which he’ll look to cash-in on with unorthodox strategies in this group. If he could somehow take down one of Cure/Maru and advance, the sheer difficulty level of the achievement might be equal to his RO8 win over Rogue at BlizzCon 2019.

It’s much more likely that this turns into a TvT-fest, where there’s a clear Maru > Cure > GuMiho hierarchy. If we do see an upset in this group, I think it will be GuMiho taking down Cure.

Maru > GuMiho
Cure > Classic
Maru > Cure
Classic > GuMiho
Cure > Classic

Maru and Cure to advance