Code S Season 2 Finals (2022): herO vs Maru Preview

2022 GSL Code S Season 2 – Grand Finalsby Poopi and Wax

The Stakes

For most fans, Maru’s quest to win the G5L trophy is the central focus of this match. Originally created for the great Mvp ahead of the Code S Season 4 finals in 2012, the G5L trophy ultimately went unawarded after Life won the championship in a breakout performance.

In the years that followed, the G5L trophy became considered to be more of a fantastical object than an award that would ever be realistically bestowed upon a player. The competition in the StarCraft II scene grew more intense by the year, and there was considerable churn at the very top. As time went on, it seemed like the hyper-dominant reigns of Nestea and Mvp were relics of the past, never to be recreated in a modern setting.

However, that all changed in 2018 when Maru finally realized his full potential. At the time, Maru was already an elite player with multiple championships to his name. However, he had shown such prodigious talent from such a young age that merely ending up as a ‘great’ player somehow felt like a disappointment.

That year, something clicked for Maru in a way it never had before. He finally converted that unparalleled, raw talent into not mere greatness, but into the most dominant run in GSL history. He achieved an unprecedented full-year sweep in GSL Code S, winning all three championships in 2018. That momentum carried over into early 2019 as well, and he won an unbelievable fourth consecutive Code S title. In little over a year, Maru had brought the G5L trophy back from the recesses of our memories to the forefront of SC2 competition..

However, just as it had been for Mvp, the mere construction of a G5L trophy seemed to jinx its intended recipient. Since winning title #4 in 2019, Maru has gone 0-for-2 in attempts to take win #5. His first unsuccessful finals challenge, lost against TY in 2020’s Season 3, was somewhat understandable. TY was arguably the best TvT player in the world, and one of the few players who seemed like Maru’s equal during his dominant 2018 stretch.

However, Maru’s second failed attempt at securing the G5L made it feel like the trophy was truly cursed. Maru headed into the 2021 Season 2 finals as a massive favorite against Rogue, having defeated every other top Zerg in the world in the months prior. Yet, somehow, the nigh-invincible Maru had no answer for Rogue’s surprise deployment of a Roach-Ravager style, and lost by a shocking and deflating 1-4 outcome. Thus, even though Maru appears to be in fantastic form ahead of this match, fans are right to be leery about his chances of winning the most elusive prize in StarCraft II.

While Maru is on the verge of completing THE most difficult individual accomplishment in StarCraft II, we shouldn’t let it overshadow the considerable historic stakes for herO as well.

At an individual level, this is herO’s chance to win his first ever Code S championship. herO is already one of the great players in StarCraft II history, with six major individual titles under his belt and a stellar run as CJ Entus’ ace in Proleague. However, only one of his individual championships was won in a “Tier 1” event—that being 2015’s SSL Season 3. It’s an unfortunate fact of life that the victors get to write the history books, and this once major event operated by SpoTV is barely remembered by modern day fans. Fairly or unfairly, GSL Code S is the true measure of greatness in Korean StarCraft II, and the lack of a Code S title puts herO’s legacy firmly behind the likes of Zest, Stats, or Classic.

On a more communal level, this is a chance for Protoss to win their first Code S championship in over five years. The aforementioned Stats was the last Protoss champion, winning Code S Season 1 back in March of 2017. Due to shifts in balance, the unfavorable metas, and perhaps simply an unfortunate maldistribution of championship-caliber talent (we’ll leave it to the TL.net readers to argue about which factor was MOST important), Protoss has been stuck in a rut ever since. It’s been an especially infuriating experience for Protoss fans, as Protoss has actually reached the finals in ten out of fifteen possible Code S finals in those five years. You read that right: Protoss is in the midst of a ten match losing streak in Code S finals.

Finally, herO can win this for an even greater collective than that of Protoss: every progamer who aspires to a post-military career. Over the years, we’ve seen progamers slowly turn what used to be a career death sentence into a more manageable roadblock, thus breathing ‘new’ life into the Korean esports scene. However, no one has made what could be considered a full recovery, with military service always seeming to exact some kind of toll on their skill level. Now, herO stands to become a player who became even better after his military service by winning the biggest championship of his career. Such an event could recalibrate career expectations for dozens of progamers going forward.

Thus, even as Maru fights for the ultimate individual accolade, a triumph for herO could be just as meaningful.

The Path to the Finals

Both herO and Maru have gone on impressive runs to reach the grand finals. Among his progamer peers, herO was one of the most hyped players headed into the tournament, and he proved that he was worthy of their acclaim by taking first place in both his round-of-20 group (beating DRG and Rogue) and round-of-10 group (wins against DRG, soO, and Zoun, loss vs Maru). Maru was also able to top his RO20 group (wins vs Solar and Creator), but finished second place to herO the RO10 by the difference of a single map (wins vs herO, soO, and Zoun, loss to DRG).

That first place seed allowed herO to bypass the round-of-6 stage of the playoffs and go directly to the semifinals, where he managed to beat Bunny 3-1 in a convincing series. While Bunny may be severely lacking compared to herO in terms of career resume, this match was hardly a formality. Bunny had been on fire in 2022, also winning his RO20 group and putting up a strong 3-1 record in his RO10 group (wins vs RagnaroK, Creator, and Cure, loss vs Dark). If herO made that match look somewhat one-sided, it was more a credit to herO than a mark against Bunny.

One of the big reasons Bunny should be treated as a credible opponent is because he actually beat Maru himself in the RO6. In Maru’s shakiest moment of the tournament, he was unable to clinch a semifinal spot on his first try as he gave up a shocking 1-3 upset to Bunny. It was one of the weirdest TvT series in recent memory, with Maru apparently overthinking things with strategies like heavy bio into Ghosts (allegedly to counter Ravens in the late game), or 2-Starport Raven openers.

Thankfully, for Maru fans, and neutrals who simply want to see the G5L trophy actually get awarded in their lifetimes, Maru looked far more impressive in his last-chance RO6 series against DongRaeGu. Despite losing 0-2 in their RO10 encounter, Maru was able to sweep DRG in the rematch with a series of 2 base all-ins/timing pushes.

If fans were worried about Maru’s condition after his loss to Bunny, he blew such concerns away with a fantastic 3-2 victory over Dark in the semifinals. Dark had defeated both herO and Maru during his championship run at DreamHack Valencia, which gave him the provisional title of ‘best in the world.’ Maru was able to demonstrate the full breadth of his power in that series, winning with both his defensive late-game style and with a well-disguised 2-base all-in.

Though the competition has been very tight at the summit of the SC2 scene for over a year now, one could argue Maru is currently the tentative #1 player in the world. Not only did he pay back Dark for his loss at DreamHack Valencia, but he also has a winning record against herO in their recent matches. Even though herO is riding in on a wave of incredible momentum, he still seems like the slight underdog against a peak-form Maru.

The Match-up

Both before and after his military service, herO has been a master of offensive Protoss play. While he receives plenty of deserved praise for his precise micro in small-scale combat, it overshadows what might be his true greatest strength: an uncanny sense for knowing when his opponent is weak. Often, herO will go for a daring attack that initially seems unwise, but he somehow ends up getting an advantageous trade out of it (or just outright kills the opponent).

However, as with many players who thrive with an aggressive style, one has to wonder if there’s an upward limit to herO’s success. He may have looked nearly flawless against Bunny, but can he be as successful against a defensive master like Maru? Those audacious Blinks into the Terran main, those headlong dives into the Terran defense—they just might not be available to herO in this series. Or, perhaps even worse, herO could enforce a more passive style upon himself, intimidated by Maru’s reputation.

As we’ve already seen in some of herO’s earlier matches this year, playing into the ultra-late game is an inevitability in a series against Maru. And, in the late game, it still looks like Maru is on an entirely different level from other Terrans. It’s hard to recall the last time any Protoss managed to beat Maru in a prolonged bout, unless they already had a significant advantage from the early/mid-game.

While it’s easy to simplify this match down to ‘offense vs defense,’ Maru has already shown against DRG and Dark that he can subvert such expectations. Passive turtle play might be what Maru is most known for at the moment, but he can make you pay if you think he’s only capable of one style.

Maru and herO’s most recent match at DreamHack Valencia was a BO3 in the group stages (VOD), where Maru took a clean 2-0 victory. herO tried to go to the late game against Maru on the first map of Moondance, but as expected, Maru’s defense was extremely hard to crack. After constant repositioning and probing, it looked like herO might have finally found an opening with his Tempest-based army, but Maru pulled off a fantastic, multi-directional flank to win the game-deciding battle. On the second map, herO was able to take a comfortable early-game lead, pinning Maru down on 2 bases with blink stalker aggression. This prompted Maru to go all-in off a weak economy,, and he managed to take a comeback win thanks to herO staying over-aggressive in a dicey situation. herO admitted he played terribly afterward, and it will be interesting to see how he adjusts his game for this best-of-seven series.

The stats website Aligulac.com sees both Maru and herO as the clear #1 players on either side of the TvP match-up, gapping the #2 players by a comfortable 100+ rating points. However, when compared directly against each other, Aligulac gives Maru the edge with a 64.93% chance of winning the best-of-seven series. TL.net Liquibet users are predicting Maru to win at around a 3-to-1 ratio, while online betting odds reveal that gamblers see this as a 60:40 proposition in Maru’s favor.

The career head-to-head record favors Maru slightly as he leads 16W-12L-1D in overall series (37W-28L map score), but this bears a closer look considering that these two have been playing against each other since 2013. The two players were actually fairly evenly matched before herO went on hiatus in 2020-21 for his military service, with Maru pulling ahead AFTER herO made his comeback. Indeed, since herO’s return, Maru has dominated herO with five victories and a draw, racking up a map score of 13W-5L in those matches. Their closest match was during GSL Super Tournament 1 (2022) where Maru won 3-2, but other than that, he’s been pretty dominant against herO.

In the semifinals preview, we surmised that Maru may have barely lost to Dark at DreamHack Valencia due to fatigue and his general trend of performing poorly in overseas events. As it turned out, Maru ended up being just slightly better than Dark when they rematched in Korea. Given that Maru was already able to 2-0 herO in Valencia, one might start to wonder if we’re headed to a one-sided finish. In fact, all of Maru’s TvP finals in Code S have been rather one-sided: 4-2 vs Stats, 4-0 vs Zest, and 4-2 vs Classic.

The final thing to consider is whether or not the G5L is truly a cursed trophy. Maru has already failed to win it in two prior finals against TY and Rogue, and in the latter he was a massive favorite headed into the match (even more so than he is against herO). Say what you will about Protoss and its inability to win Code S titles, but the G5L might be even more sacrosanct.

When you add everything up, it seems that Maru is at least a moderate favorite. While Maru has a clear advantage in the late-game, it’s uncertain as to how successful herO will be with his early/mid-game aggression. Certainly, you can envision a best-case scenario where each and every one of herO’s builds hit perfectly, and Maru loses without ever getting to play his real game. However, it seems more likely that herO will only be able to work his magic a handful of times, and ultimately fall to the more solid Maru.

Prediction: Maru 4 – 2 herO

---