NASCAR Cup Series: Championship Race at Phoenix Preview

Sunday afternoon will mark the end to the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series this season, as the Championship 4 is set for Phoenix Raceway. Kyle Larson guaranteed himself a spot among the last four drivers eligible for a season championship by winning the first two races in the Cup Series Round of 8, with victories coming at Texas Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway. Chase Elliott joined him in the last four by stacking up enough points at the end of the second stage last week at Martinsville Speedway. Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr got enough points in Martinsville to take the third and fourth spots. Next up is a run of 312 laps around a 1.022-mile, four-turn oval at Phoenix Raceway. We have the NASCAR Betting Odds for each driver to win the race, along with some suggestions for your wager cards.

NASCAR News: Cup Series Championship Preview

Season Championship Odds

Kyle Larson is the favorite because he has dominated the Cup Series this season. He has won nine races overall and also leads the series in laps led with 2,474 — almost 1,000 more than the next driver. He has won 17 stages, seven more than the second-place driver. He has more top five finishes (19) and top ten finishes (25) than any other driver as well. During the middle of the season, he either won or came in second in eight out of nine races, including the All-Star Race.

If you want a value pick, look at Denny Hamlin. Before the Round of 16, his odds of winning a championship stood at +750, but they have dropped since. He went all of 2021 without winning  a race until the first playoff event, where he won at Darlington. He came in second at Richmond and then finished ninth at Bristol. Then he won at Las Vegas in the Round of 12, following that up with a seventh place at Talladega and a fifth place at Charlotte on the road course. Larson has never won a race at Phoenix Raceway, while Hamlin has two victories here.

Championship Race Odds

We already discussed Kyle Larson before, but one more note — yes, he has never won a race at Phoenix, but most of his wins this season came on tracks where he had never won before. In March, Larson was seventh at Phoenix, but he was also penalized three times, having to start from the rear of the field. He got penalized on pit road during a competition caution, restarting in 32nd place before working his way back up to second place, only to get another penalty during stage 2. The pass-through penalty sent him back to 26th place. So despite driving through the field three times, he only finished seventh. He definitely could win this race and is the favorite for a reason.

Martin Truex Jr turned a corner (no pun intended) at Phoenix in March. He had never led more than 11 laps at this track in a race since 2012, but this spring, a lengthy pit stop in Stage 2 set Truex’s car up for success. When he came out, he got caught in traffic, but he worked all the way up to second place, and he would either lead or run second the rest of the way. The setup for the car was wrong for Stage 1 and the part of Stage 2 before the pit stop. If you look at the second half stats, though, Truex makes a strong choice.

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NASCAR Betting Odds

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