New Zealand v Namibia T20 World Cup Tips: David to take on Goliath

New Zealand v Namibia
Friday, 10:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket

Guptill brilliant last time out

New Zealand have done what’s been asked of them since losing their first match against Pakistan.

There was a convincing win over India and then they followed it up with another victory on Wednesday, this time over Scotland.

They have Martin Guptill, a 3/1 winner for us in the top batsman market, to thank for his match-winning 93 off just 56 balls.

It included four fours and seven sixes. Not only is that sort of score and strike rate (166) a brilliant effort in any circumstances, but consider a couple of other factors.

One: the next highest score by Kiwi batsmen was 33 from Glenn Phillips so it’s not like everyone was smashing it around. The ultra-consistent Kane Williamson went for a duck and the impressive Devon Conway managed just one.

Two: these were truly punishing conditions. It was baking hot out there and even batsmen who were only around for five or six overs found the going tough.

I don’t think I’d ever seen a batsman get out for 93 and seem somewhat relieved at the prospect; that’s how hot it was in the middle.

In the end they won by ‘just’ 16 runs, after Scotland made a decent fist of their reply.

Mitchell Santner went wicketless but was his usual economic self, going at just 5.75 an over. Trent Boult was good, too: he took two wickets for 29.

Likely XI: Guptill, Mitchell, Williamson, Conway, Philipps, Neesham, Santner, Milne, Southee, Sodhi, Boult.

Namibia can be proud of their work

You have to feel a bit for a side like Namibia.

They’re obviously delighted just to be there but simply don’t have the resources to be competitive against the top sides.

But they’ve already achieved beyond what they expected to by not only qualifying for the Super 12 stage but also securing a win, against Scotland.

I’ve been impressed with the left-arm pace of Ruben Trumpelmann, the all-round skills of Jan Nicolaas Frylinck and the captaincy of Gerhard Erasmus.

Then of course, there’s David Wiese. At 36, he’s hardly the future of Namibian cricket but his outstanding performances for a minnow against the world’s top teams may yet get him a few more gigs on the T20 franchise circuit over the next couple of years.

He’s averaging 61 with the bat and going at less than seven an over with the ball.

Likely XI: Baard, Van Lingen, Williams, Eramus, Wiese, Smit, Green, Loftie-Eaton, Trumpelmann, Frylinck, Shikongo.

First innings runs strategy for Sharjah

Two matches ago at Sharjah, Sri Lanka posted 142 which South Africa eventually chased but only after some late six-hitting from David Miller.

Last time out England got to a very decent 164 but only because Jos Buttler played the outstanding innings of the tournament so far.

If New Zealand bat first I might consider an odds-on lay of 160 because Namibia have some decent bowlers in the side.

If it’s Namibia getting first use of the wicket, I’d be looking to get odds-against on 130+. It only takes a good 40 or so from a Wiese or Erasmus to give yourself a chance of getting to that sort of total.

Both teams will surely want to chase, though.

Nothing doing on the match winner market

I didn’t spend too much time discussing the match odds market ahead of the Black Caps’ game against Scotland and I won’t spend much more this time round.

New Zealand are exactly the same price as last time at 1.071/14. ‘If’ Namibia bowl first, ‘if’ they take early wickets, ‘if’…you get the picture.

You’d need a fair few things to go their way to even have a chance of a decent back-to-lay of Erasmus’ side.

David to take on Goliath

Those Sportsbook odds-compilers are either very brave or very stubborn.

Our man Wiese has played all of Namibia’s six matches at this World Cup (including the qualifiers) and top-scored in three of them, including the last two.

You don’t need me telling you that’s 50% of games he’s done so in or that (based on an admittedly small sample of just six games) that equates to a 2.01/1 shot.

I guess the theory is that there are only so many times that a Number 5 or 6 batsman will have enough time at the crease to overtake the batters who have come in before them.

But when the top-order are facing an excellent bowling attack who can cut them open with the sort of pace they rarely face, maybe it’s not that much of a stretch after all.

The other key difference is that Wiese himself is a cut above his team-mates. 11/2 on him doing it all over again? That will do us just fine.

MOM candidates

Given I just can’t see an upset here and I’m only considering New Zealand players for the man-of-the-match award.

Ish Sodhi was uncharacteristically expensive last time out, which ruined his brilliant WC figures, but still took two wickets.

He’s been bowling as well as I’ve ever seen him bowl and could be good for two or three wickets here. He’s 12/1 and that looks big.

Daryl Mitchell was on the receiving end of a marginal LBW decision last time out but has looked good so far in his new role as an opener.

Guptill rarely gets too many runs in back-to-back matches these days, so I prefer Mitchell, who is also the bigger price at 7/1 to Guptill’s 5/1.

Check out the latest World Cup edition of Cricket…Only Bettor

Source: https://betting.betfair.com/cricket/20-twenty-cricket/twenty20-world-cup/new-zealand-v-namibia-t20-world-cup-tips-david-wiese-to-take-on-goliath-041121-206.html