NFL Betting Odds & Predictions for Week 9 → Colts – Patriots

The New England Patriots (4-4) have picked up some impressive wins this season despite inconsistency at the quarterback position. Injuries to Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer, coupled with impressive play from rookie Bailey Zappe, has left the position with some uncertainty. The Patriots were beaten badly two weeks ago at home by Chicago, but then Jones played well against the Jets last week, particularly in the second half, to solidify his hold on the starting job, at least for now. Next up is a visit from the Indianapolis Colts (3-4-1), who turned the offense over to University of Texas product Sam Ehlinger after Matt Ryan proved ineffective at leading the unit. Ehlinger was outdueled last week by Washington backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke, 17-16, as the Colts have not won since beating Jacksonville on October 16. Which team will take a step forward toward wild-card contention with a win this week? Read our online betting prediction before you lock in a bet on this game.

 

NFL Preview: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
(Sunday, November 6)

 

When: Sunday, November 6, 2022, 1:00 pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
TV: FOX
Radio: WFNI 107.5 FM Indianapolis / 98.5 FM The Sports Hub Boston
Live Stream: Sling TV
NFL Odds: New England -5.5 / O/U 40.5 // New England -240 / Indianapolis +196

 

Why should you bet on the Colts?

Ehlinger put up serviceable numbers against Washington, posting a 73.9% completion rate and throwing for 201 yards. He didn’t turn the ball over, but he also didn’t have a touchdown pass. Tailback Jonathan Taylor came into the season as the NFL’s defending rushing yards leader, but injuries have limited him, and he only has 462 yards and a single touchdown after eight games.

Once again, the defense is the stronger unit for the Colts, permitting only 19.6 points per game. DeForest Buckner leads the pass rush crew with four sacks, and Zaire Franklin is the top tackler on the team with 81. Despite this defense, the rushing game is 29th of 32 teams in the NFL, and Ehlinger is making the first road start of his career – against one of the savviest defensive coaches of all time. On the road, Indianapolis has covered just once in their last five chances, and they have covered just three times in their last 10 games overall.

 

Why should you put your money on the Patriots?

New England has won five of their last eight games at Gillette Stadium – and three of their last four overall. Mac Jones has struggled, posting an unsightly 3:7 TD:INT ratio, but he was able to overcome his mistakes to lead the team to victory against the Jets. The team’s ability to find the end zone with Bailey Zappe running the offense evaporated against Chicago, particularly in the second half. On the ground, Rhamondre Stevenson is putting together a nice season, with 558 yards and four touchdowns.

The Patriots’ defense has also been solid, allowing just 20.4 points per game. Matthew Judon has been a beast in the pass rush, posting 8 ½ sacks, and Ja’Whaun Bentley is the top tackler in New England with 45. The Pats have covered in four of their last five games overall and in four consecutive home games against the Colts. The favorite has covered in five of the last seven meetings between the two teams.

 

Final Score and Prediction

I’m curious to see how Sam Ehlinger adjusts to NFL-speed football after excelling in college for the Longhorns. I think Belichick will be able to disguise coverages well enough to confuse him and make it a long day, but I also think the Colts’ defense will keep it close. I think Indianapolis covers but falls late, with a final score of New England 17, Indianapolis 13.

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