NFL Conference Championship Upset Picks

Is it possible for the conference championship round of this year’s NFL playoffs to live up to the excitement of the divisional round? Last week, all four games went down to the very last play, with three game-winning field goals and an overtime touchdown. Three road teams picked up upset victories, and now we have conference championships featuring Cincinnati traveling to Kansas City, where the Chiefs are looking to avenge a Week 17 loss that saw the Bengals come back from a 14-0 deficit to win, 34-31, and San Francisco traveling to Los Angeles to face a Rams team that they have beaten twice already this season, including a Week 18 win at SoFi Stadium. From a NFL betting perspective, does picking an upset in either case make sense? Let’s take a closer look.

NFL News: Conference Championship Upset Picks

Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, January 30 | 3:00 pm ET, CBS
This makes four straight AFC Championships at Arrowhead Stadium, with each coming against a different opponent. The Chiefs survived a shootout with Buffalo last week, driving almost 45 yards in 13 seconds to kick a last-second field goal, and then driving for an easy touchdown to start overtime as both defenses were simply out of gas. Joe Burrow has been transcendent in his last five starts, and the rushing help he gets from Joe Mixon has made a huge difference in terms of balance. With Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, Burrow has three elite targets.

The problem for Cincinnati has been protecting Burrow. He took 51 sacks in the regular season – and took nine in the divisional win over Tennessee. He became the first quarterback ever to win a playoff game in which he took eight or more sacks. Mixon also had a tough time getting going against the Tennessee run defense. However, Kansas City’s front seven is not as tough as the Titans’, and the secondary took some injuries against Buffalo. If the Bills had won the toss, they would have driven down the field in overtime and scored just as easily.

Cincinnati stops the run well, as we saw them slow down Derrick Henry (although Henry was clearly not running at 100% after a foot injury ended his regular season in Week 8). The pass coverage can be iffy, as they like to use zone coverage to stop big plays but are likely to blitz. Patrick Mahomes knows how to get the ball out quickly and can evade the rush. The Bengals do have the advantage of an extra day of rest, as they played on Saturday while the Chiefs played Sunday night. With a seven-point spread, I’m still leaning toward the Bengals to cover, although a last-second Chiefs escape is still how I see this game ending.

San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) at L.A. Rams

Sunday, January 30 | 6:30 pm ET, FOX
San Francisco swept the Rams this year in the regular season, winning 31-10 at home in Week 10 and erasing a 17-0 deficit to win, 27-24, in overtime in Week 18 to make the postseason. This shouldn’t be a surprise by now, though, as the 49ers have beaten the Rams six times in a row, sweeping the season series for the last three years.

The 49ers come in with a solid running game behind Elijah Mitchell, with Deebo Samuel also getting carries. When Jimmy Garoppolo manages ball security well, he can hit some deep shots and also throw shorter passes that find receivers in open territory to run after the catch. Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle join Samuel as tough targets to cover and bring down. The 49ers haven’t really had as many problems with the Rams’ pass rush as other teams have.

When the Rams have the ball, look for them to throw the ball down the field – and look for the 49ers to pressure Matt Stafford. Nick Bosa and Arik Armistead bring pressure off the edge. However, the connection between Stafford and Cooper Kupp has been electric all season long. The worry I have about the Rams is their mental toughness under adversity. They had a 27-3 lead over Tampa Bay and then started turning the ball over and saw the Bucs tie the game at 27. It took a boneheaded slot blitz by the Bucs to turn Cooper Kupp loose and lead to the Rams’ game-winning field goal. So for now, give me the 49ers to cover – which means I’m picking upsets against the spread in both games.

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