Code S RO16 Preview - Dark, Stats, Classic, Bunny

Code S RO16 Preview – Dark, Stats, Classic, Bunny

Time Stamp: March 6, 2024 4:26 PM

RO16 Group B Preview: Dark, Stats, Classic, Bunny

Thursday, Mar 07 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

by Mizenhauer

For those who were pleasantly surprised by the competitiveness of opening night, where Maru struggled to get through what initially appeared to be a cakewalk group, Group B could continue that trend of close games (or maybe not).

On paper, Dark fills the Maru role, lording over a group of outmatched players. He’s quietly put together a stretch of great tournament finishes over the past five months, finishing top four finishes in Code S Season 3, Master’s Coliseum 7, IEM Katowice, and earning a runner-up finish at ESL Winter/Atlanta. While Dark was overshadowed by the drama of Clem’s win in Atlanta and Serral’s overall dominance, it’s arguable that he’s low-key been the third most successful player (after Serral and Maru) in this period.

With Maru taking soO with the first pick in the group selection/draft, Dark opted to take the other struggling military returnee in Stats. For all his ‘best Protoss in the world’ pedigree prior to his military service, Stats has been a rather brittle shield of Aiur following his comeback. His Aligulac ranking has tanked all the way down to #27 since his return to StarCraft one year ago, and he’d have been hard pressed to earn a Code S spot at all if not for the departure of Astrea and Scarlett (as it worked out, he beat sOs and an amateur player called “Polaris” in his final two qualifier matches).

Overall, it’s been a disappointing return for Stats, who gave fans some reason to be optimistic early on. He ‘carried’ the hapless Freecs in the World Team League with an 8-10 record, which wasn’t bad for someone who had only been back on the scene for a few months. He also caused quite the stir in the IEM Katowice qualifiers, managing to nab a main event spot when players like Classic and Creator missed out. However, bracket luck clearly helped him a lot, and his 0-5 exit in the Katowice main event was a better indication of his actual level.

That doesn’t mean at all that fans should give up hope for Stats. While players like herO and ByuN made remarkably quick recoveries, it also took players like Classic and GuMiho over a year to hit their stride. With some more time, we may very well see glimmers of the real Stats.

However, at least for the immediate future, the outlook isn’t so bright. Stats is just 9-7 in matches since his return from Poland, and 4-7 (in matches) against his fellow Code S players. The one saving grace for Stats is that his PvP has been alright—good enough to coinflip Classic in a BO3, at least. However, given how this group projects to pan out, that may only be the difference between fourth and third place.

The bigger threats to Dark are Classic and Bunny, players who epitomize the “puncher” in the much-invoked “puncher’s chance.”

Classic has been one of the tougher players to rate in his post-military career, showing some of the most inconsistent day-to-day form in the scene. His multi-tasking and reaction speed can look painfully slow at times, with the more mechanically gifted players easily picking him apart. But sometimes, everything will just fall into place, and he’ll beat Serral or Maru in straight-up macro games. This whiplash was felt acutely a few months ago, when he followed up a Code S RO4 run with failure to make it through what should have been relatively easy online qualification for IEM Katowice.

Dark is on a ZvP downswing lately, losing to players like herO and MaxPax several times in the post-Katowice ESL Open Cups. Still, Dark isn’t exactly known for giving maximum effort in the Open Cups, and he flawlessly took care of his ZvP business at his last major tournament of IEM Katowice with a 4-0 match record (9-1 in maps). Chances are, Dark will just annihilate Classic in a similar fashion to their match at DreamHack Atlanta, but Classic has shown us too many ‘randomly’ good series to be dismissed out of hand.

Bunny is another player who defies assessment, with his form soaring and diving over the last couple of years. Everything seemed to be coming together for him at the end of 2022, when he very nearly won his first major championship at DreamHack Atlanta. However, his results since then have been a mixture of mild successes (GSL RO4) and utter disappointments (failing to make the cut for Gamers8), leaving fans to wonder what the heck is going on with the talented but confounding Terran.

With a prize money bonanza being teased at the Esports World Cup, could Bunny ramp back up to his peak form again? Katowice didn’t go well for him, as he was bounced from the tournament in the group stages (though that was due to his 0-3 record against strong Terrans). However, he’s been solid in various post Katowice competitions (though it’s hardly a huge sample size), and notably, he beat Dark 2-1 in the Code S qualifiers. Also, he was picked toward the end of the group selections, which is sometimes an indicator of a player’s form in ladder/online play.

Predictions

Aligulac.com’s projection for the group follows what is probably most fans’ gut feeling: Dark as the heavy favorite to take first place, while Classic and Bunny are in a dead heat to come out of the group in second. Aligulac gives Classic a slight edge of winning the head-to-head against Bunny at 52.22%, which is basically a coin flip.

Personally, I just don’t see it as it being so close, as I feel Classic has been remarkably mediocre as of late. He’s just 28-30 in games against Korean players since Katowice (in which he did not compete), and it’s buoyed by him farming DRG multiple times (9-2 map record over four series wins). PvT has been a problem in particular, with his post-Katowice record against Code S Terrans sitting at just 9-15 in games and 2-5 in matches. Given Classic’s struggles in the matchup, it seems unlikely that he’ll be the one to reach the winner’s match and a chance of advancing in first place. Even if he manages to make it past Bunny, he’ll most likely face Dark—a legend of the game who could never be confused for the 2024 version of DRG—even on his worst days. Should Classic lose to Dark, he’ll almost certainly end up where he started, having to battle Bunny—except this time their tournament lives will be on the line. Given recent history, it seems as if we’ll have to wait at least another week to see a Protoss move on to the Round of 8.

Dark > Stats
Bunny > Classic
Dark > Bunny
Classic > Stats
Bunny > Classic

Dark and Bunny advance.

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