Grasso vs Araujo: UFC Fight Night Betting Predictions

The ladies will take center stage at the UFC Apex facility on Saturday night, as UFC Fight Night 212 will feature a flyweight bout between Alexa Grasso and Viviane Araujo, which was rescheduled from UFC on ESPN 41 back in August when Grasso ran into visa issues. The co-main event is a bantamweight scrap between Jonathan Martinez and Cub Swanson. You can catch the whole evening’s action on ESPN+. Before you commit to any sports betting on either of the two top fights, check out our insights and predictions.

 

UFC Fight Night 212: Grasso vs Araujo Preview

 

 

Alexa Grasso (14-3, -215) vs Viviane Araujo (11-3, +185) will settle the question of who gets the next title shot at Valentina Shevchenko. Grasso came into UFC at the age of 23, six years ago, as a strawweight, but she never seemed to be able to make progress within the division. She beat Heather Jo Clark in a nice debut but then lost the striking battle to Felice Herrig. She bounced back to edge Randa Markos on the cards but then got run out of the Octagon by Tatiana Suarez. She suffered a knee injury that kept her out of the fighting world for a year, and she returned by demolishing Karolina Kowalkiewicz…and then losing a head-scratcher to Carla Esparza. Moving up to flyweight, though, seems to have been the right decision. She outworked Ji Yeon Kim on the cards and also rolled over Maycee Barber. She fought Joanne Wood in March, adding a new dimension to her fighting approach by taking Wood’s back and stopping things with a rear naked choke. Now she needs to take advantage of the opportunity that her first main event brings her.

Araujo came into UFC via a fight against Talita Bernardo on just three days’ notice. Araujo took full advantage of the chance, delivering a win with a knockout in the third round. That was a bantamweight fight; Araujo fought up two weight divisions, as she was a strawweight then. She found her place at flyweight, and she has been terrific there – and also enigmatic. She can terrorize such lesser athletes as Montana De La Rosa, Roxanne Modafferi or Alexis Davis, as she hits harder and has more strength on the ground. However, when the opponent is similar in skill or strength in an area, then she can struggle, as we saw when Jessica Eye put on a boxing clinic, or when Katlyn Chookagian found her way around her. In May, she beat Andrea Lee, which tells us that she might have turned a corner, surviving a frenetic first round to wear down a stronger opponent with wresting over the next two. Araujo likes to bring pressure early, which could give the fight some intrigue, since Grasso struggles when opponents get aggressive. Grasso has the slight edge in experience and track record, so she is my pick.

Final Prediction: Grasso wins via decision

Cub Swanson (28-12, +175) vs Jonathan Martinez (16-4, -205) marks Swanson’s move down to bantamweight just ahead of his 39th birthday. He had been a contender regularly in the 145-pound division since he joined UFC in 2012, although he never made it all the way to a title fight. He had a six-fight winning streak before losing to Max Holloway and Frankie Edgar in 2014, and he won four in a row after that – but then dropped four straight in a streak that ended in 2019. In his most recent streak, though, he has won three of four, with two of those coming in highlight-reel finishes of Daniel Pineda (2020) and Darren Elkins (December). His sharpness in the win over Elkins didn’t suggest that he needed to change divisions, but now he has come down to fight Martinez.

Martinez has put together a quiet 7-3 record during UFC action, including three wins in a row. He likes to stay at range and strike out at his opponent. His kicking game is interesting, but his defensive technique needs work. Because of those defensive lapses, Martinez will end up going down.

Final Prediction: Swanson wins via knockout

 

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