Betting on the College Football Top 25 for Week 10

The College Football Playoff committee released their first standings for 2022, and interestingly, their ideas differ significantly from those of the Associated Press. The top four in the first CFP poll are Tennessee, Ohio State, Georgia and Clemson. In contrast, the top four in the AP poll are Georgia, Tennessee, Ohio State and Michigan. The CFP committee likely chose to penalize Michigan for its soft non-conference schedule, but we will see how things shake out in the weeks to come. As we look ahead to Week 10 of the college football season, check out the latest AP Top 25 poll and other items that may influence your online betting choices.

 

NCAA News: Top 25 Betting Opportunities

 

#1 Georgia Bulldogs
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes
#2Tennessee Volunteers
#4 Michigan Wolverines
#5 Clemson Tigers
#6 Alabama Crimson Tide
#7 TCU Horned Frogs
#8 Oregon Ducks
#9 USC Trojans
#10 UCLA Bruins
#11 Ole Miss Rebels
#12 Utah Utes
#13 Kansas State Wildcats
#14 Illinois Fighting Illini
#15 LSU Tigers
#16 Penn State Nittany Lions
#17 North Carolina Tar Heels
#18 Oklahoma State Cowboys
#19 Tulane Green Wave
#20 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
#21 N.C. State Wolfpack
#22 Syracuse Orange
#23 Liberty Flames
#24 Oregon State Beavers
#25 UCF Knights

 

Earlier this week, we wrote about how Oregon State is a smart pick to cover at Washington on Friday night. Here are some more numbers to back that up. Washington has failed to cover in four straight games, even though they are 4-1 against the spread this season. As a road underdog, Oregon State has gone 10-3 ATS since the beginning of the 2019 season. That’s the second-best cover percentage in that situation in the Pac-12 during that time frame, and we all know how inconsistent Pac-12 teams seem to be.

I’ll be writing more about Tennessee visiting Georgia this week – you can’t have such titans meeting without considering the wagering implications. Georgia is a nine-point favorite, which is the largest spread in a meeting of the nation’s top two teams since 2013. Florida State was a nine-point favorite over Auburn in the BCS title game, but the Seminoles only won by three. Underdogs in these matchups have covered in 24 of the last 37 meetings and have won 20 of those 37 meetings straight up. In the last ten seasons, the underdog has covered in all four meetings and has split the meetings straight up.

The number of suspensions at Michigan State in the week of that tunnel brawl at Michigan last week has increased to eight, and it’s only Wednesday. As video evidence increases and the week goes by, that number may increase even higher. The line for their game at Illinois has climbed to 16 points – but Michigan State has covered in nine of their last 12 games against the Illini. The difference this time, of course, is that Illinois has a solid track record this year. At home, they have covered five of six overall and have gone 4-1 ATS at home. Michigan State has covered in nine of their last 12 games against Illinois but has only covered once in five games against teams with winning records in 2022.

Oklahoma State visits Kansas as 3 ½-point favorites despite getting run out of Kansas State’s stadium in a 48-0 undressing. Kansas has covered in six of eight games this season, tied for third best in cover percentage in the FBS. The Cowboys have in seven of eight road games dating back to the start of the 2021 season, but the exception came last week. They have only failed to cover once in their last 14 Big 12 games – but that exception also came last week. The Cowboys have covered in four straight against the Jayhawks. However, I was shocked at how listless the Cowboys looked a week ago, so I’m leaning toward Kansas.

 

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