Code S RO4 & Finals Preview: Stats, herO, Maru, Cure

Code S RO4 & Finals Preview: Stats, herO, Maru, Cure

Time Stamp: April 10, 2024 7:47 AM

Thursday, Apr 11 8:00am GMT (GMT+00:00)

by Wax

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Code S Season 1 comes to a close on Thursday night, with a guaranteed Terran vs Protoss clash in the finals. Who will earn the right to represent their faction and challenge for the Code S championship?

Semifinal #1: herO vs Stats

At the start of the season, two Protoss greats embarked upon journeys to reclaim lost glory. Now, their paths have met just steps away from their final destination.

Stats’ comeback story is of the traditional variety. Player becomes great. Player goes to the military. Player becomes not-so-great. Player decides to give greatness another shot, knowing full well it’s been a futile effort for nearly everyone who’s tried.

On the vast, vast, continuum of military returnees between Polt and herO, I’d say Stats currently stands roughly at the position of Armani in 2020. That may seem like an unflattering comparison when one considers the gulf in between their pre-military resumes, but their post-military accomplishments have been quite similar so far. Both players went through a year of forgettable results after their return—including multiple first round exits in Code S and a RO24 elimination at IEM Katowice—and then both abruptly broke out with a deep run to the Code S semifinals.

This is a crucial inflection point for Stats. Even though Armani played very impressive games against top GSL players during his RO4 run in 2020’s Season 3, he never came close to reaching those heights again—Stats has given us some reasons to worry that this run is also a mirage. One could argue that his wins against Dark in the RO16 and SHIN in the RO8 were more due to his opponent’s mistakes than strong play of his own. Against Cure in this season’s RO8, he threw two winnable games due to baffling mistakes he would have never have made three years ago. His speed and reaction time, however improved, still lag behind the players who have been competing without interruption.

However, given Stats’ superior pedigree, there’s also reason to believe this is no flash in the pan. In both the GSL and other competitions, we’ve seen glimpses of the impenetrable defense and big picture decision-making that once made him the best Protoss player in the world. Okay, so he may have blown big leads against Cure—but how many Protosses could have played their way to such commanding positions to begin with? And, sure, Dark’s sluggish movements with Brood Lords played a part in Stats’ best game of the tournament so far—but isn’t it a testament to Stats’ prowess that he took full advantage of the situation with his more mobile army? Maybe these are just glimpses, but they’re enough to make some fans believe that Stats has a chance to follow in herO’s historic footsteps.

Indeed, herO has already achieved what might be considered the greatest comeback in all of StarCraft II. He set the high watermark for all military returnees in 2022, overcoming his 18-month forced hiatus and winning the Code S championship over Maru in the finals.

Right now, herO is in the midst of his second comeback tour—one that’s much less dramatic but still unique in its own right. From April to December of 2023, herO became a complete wreck in live tournaments, as if all his veteran savvy and live tournament nous had disappeared overnight. This was made all the more baffling by the fact that herO continued to play like the best Protoss when it came to online competitions. The best explanation I can come up with is that Oliveira inflicted such a deep mental wound on herO by beating him at IEM Katowice 2023 that it took nine months to heal. That, or the Monstars from Space Jam are real, and they siphoned all of herO’s verve and composure away for some intergalactic esports competition.

Whatever the reason, herO seems to have successfully put those problems behind him. Building on a decent RO12 finish at IEM Katowice 2024, herO has looked very much like the best version of himself this season. In particular, he put the league on notice in the RO8 with a convincing 2-0 win over top championship contender Maru, displaying all the decisiveness and clinical execution that won him a championship two years ago. Because herO has already pulled off an even more difficult recovery in the past, there’s little reason to question whether or not this run is ‘for real.’

That places Stats as the clear and heavy underdog headed into this semifinal match. While Protoss vs Protoss has a reputation as a coinflip match-up, there’s definitely skill differentiation at the absolute highest level. Going by Aligulac.com rating, herO and MaxPax have clearly separated themselves from other Protoss players for the last two years, consistently placing themselves some 200-400 points ahead of the pack.

While there’s obviously some game sense/mind games advantage in play for herO, I think his biggest edge is that he’s simply better than everyone else in terms of mechanics. Whether it’s a head-on fight where both players are chain juggling units in their Warp Prisms or an early-game clown fiesta where Oracles and Adepts are active at four places at once, herO is usually going to come out ahead because he’s just faster and better at micro. That allows him to play his aggressive style without worry, because he knows that he’s going to be one step ahead if the game devolves into chaos.

This is especially troublesome for Stats, whose mechanics seem to be his clear weakness at this time. While his reaction speed has certainly improved since IEM Katowice when it felt like he was prone to dying ‘randomly’ at any time because he missed some troop movements, he still has a ways to go to be safe against herO.

A recent match in the StarsWar #11 qualifier, where herO beat Stats 3-1, demonstrated how things could go wrong for the Shield of Aiur. When herO played aggressive, Stats was simply overwhelmed by both herO’s frontal attacks and incessant backdoor raids into his Probe line. Stats did manage to play himself into an even mid-game situation on Goldenaura, with two maxout Stalker-Zealot armies facing each other. Then, similar to his loss to Cure in the GSL, he blew it all with a single moment of inattentiveness and poor positioning where he allowed herO to pounce on his exposed army. Interestingly enough, Stats’ one map win came when he hit a 3-base all-in against an overly greedy herO.

Overall, herO has dominated Stats since his return from the military with a 6-1 record in matches (13-5 map score). Even though Stats’ huge improvement in recent months has seen him shoot up the Aligulac.com PvP rankings to third place with a 3057 rating, there’s still a significant gap between him and #2 herO with a 3286 rating. As such, the stats website sees herO as a solid favorite, with a 70.42% chance of winning the series.

Prediction

As much as I’ve enjoyed Stats’ run this season, I think this is where his road will end. I’m optimistic about his continued improvement in the coming months, but I think it’s a bit too early for him to win a BO5+ match against a real championship contender. Barring a huge relapse from herO, to the level where he was losing key offline BO3’s to NightMare and Creator in 2023, he should have this series in the bag.

Prediction: herO 3 – 1 Stats

Semifinal #2: Cure vs Maru

After his shock RO16 elimination in the last season of Code S, it’s good to see Maru back in playoffs where he belongs. Even though the thrill of the G5L chase ended in Season 3 of 2022, it’s still an honor to watch the greatest GSL player ever break his own records and further his amazing legacy.

That said, if you zoom in and consider things on a match-to-match basis, Maru has definitely taken a lot of excitement out of GSL playoff matches by turning them into ritual executions. His opponents often seem like hapless victims—more so now that military service and retirements have thinned out the GSL ranks. Even Cure, a top three Terran in the world, seems like a dead man walking headed into this bout.

On paper, it doesn’t make much sense to think this way. Maru’s aura of TvT invincibility has slowly waned since its peak in 2021/22, and the current Aligulac TvT rating gap between Cure and Maru is down to ‘only’ 246 points from the absurd 500+ during Maru’s maximum mirror match-up magnificence. That gives Cure around 30:70 odds—he’s the underdog for sure, but still one with a puncher’s chance. We’ve seen players like Oliveira and Clem take Maru down in some of SC2’s highest stakes tournaments, and Cure is similar if not better than those two in TvT.

And yet, while other Terrans have taken advantage of Maru’s growing vulnerability, Cure has only fallen into a deeper hole of futility. In the past eleven months, Maru has defeated Cure in three BO5+ matches in major offline tournaments, and each one was devastating for Cure in its own way.

In the finals of 2023’s Code S Season 1, Maru completely outclassed Cure in late-game situations to take a convincing 4-2 victory. When the two faced off again in the semifinals of the following Code S Season, Maru was reeling after losing to Clem in the semifinals of Gamers8 while Cure had hit an especially good patch of form. Cure was able to avoid any late-game confrontations this time around, and jumped ahead to a 2-0 lead based on his strong early/mid-game play. However, he blew all three chances to close the series out—twice in games where he committed egregious errors that could only be explained by a mental collapse.

The third big loss came in the semifinals of the recent IEM Katowice 2024 event, where Maru won in a 3-0 sweep. Cure got to taste three different flavors of despair, failing to stop Maru from reaching a late-game composition in game one, blowing a lead to a basetrade in game two, and losing the early Cyclone-Raven war in game three (at least he won’t have to worry about that anymore).

The throughline in all these matches is that Cure actually looked pretty competitive with Maru when it game to the early-game and mid-game, and you could see him lay the foundations for the same kind of upsets that Clem and Oliveira achieved (of course, when games do end up going long, Maru still has a considerable advantage against every Terran in the world). However, Cure’s inability to close out leads—due to either poor crisis management or abnormal errors—made it apparent that Maru is living in his head rent free. Even though the career head-to-head match score only favors Maru by 20-9 (56-20 map score), the vibe of their series is that of a 95:5.

Prediction

The case for Cure is the same case for soO during his silver surfer streak or foreigners from 2012-2017—you can’t lose forever, right? However, while I’m willing to predict that Cure will get his big victory over Maru at some point in the future, I just can’t say it’s going to happen this Thursday night.

Prediction: Maru 3 – 2 Cure

Grand Finals Scenarios

Stats vs Cure

Personally, I think PvT has been the most impressive match-up of Stats’ recent surge, where he’s looked the most like his old self. Stats’ early-game defense is much improved, and he can get the macro-snowball-of-doom rolling against most Code S quality Terrans. That includes Cure, who he beat 2-1 in the StarsWar #11 qualifier, and probably should have beat again in the Code S RO8. Stats had Cure on the ropes twice after putting together his Carrier-Disruptor deathball, but both times he gave up a comeback due to some very questionable army movements.

On one hand, I want to say he’ll learn from those mistakes and close leads out more safely. On the other hand, it could just be the case that he’s just generally more mistake-prone at this stage of his post-military recovery.

I see this series as being pretty close, but I’ll give Cure the edge since he’s had much more recent experience playing in high stakes BO5+ series.

Prediction: Cure 4 – 3 Stats

Stats vs Maru

While I said Stats can get his macro game going against most Code S Terrans, that “most” didn’t include Maru. Their recent meeting in the StarsWars #11 qualifier (I keep bringing it up because it’s the most recent non-GSL tournament with more than marginal stakes) saw Maru handily beat Stats 2-0 in some games that reminded me of old Maru vs RagnaroK matches. By that, I mean Stats put up some decent resistance as the underdog, but at the end of the day I never felt like he had a realistic chance of winning.

Prediction: Maru 4 – 1 Stats

herO vs Cure

Cure might have gotten the better of herO in their prior matches at IEM Katowice and in the Code S RO16, but I think herO would have the edge in a potential finals clash. For one, both of Cure’s wins came prior to the recent Cyclone and Mine nerf. While we haven’t seen the two face off directly post-patch, herO looked very impressive in wins vs ByuN and Maru in the RO8, whereas Cure only narrowly got by Stats in his own group.

Also, cheeses and timings featured heavily in Cure’s earlier wins over Stats. While I think these are an important part of Cure’s game (playing a big role in his 2021 Code S championship run), this strength is blunted by the new Code S playoffs format where the RO4 and finals are played on the same day. With an extremely difficult semifinals match against Maru ahead of him, I seriously doubt Cure will have spared much mental bandwidth for a hypothetical finals against herO.

Prediction: herO 4 – 2 Cure

herO vs Maru

This is the dream final, pitting the two best players in Korea against each other. Not long after herO’s 2-0 win over Maru in the GSL RO8, they faced off again in the StarsWar #11 qualifier finals. That match was much closer than their GSL clash, with Maru barely winning by a 4-3 score. One can only hope the two play a similarly tight series should they meet again in the GSL finals (though, I hope this time, herO doesn’t lose due to a supply block in game seven).

I think a rematch in the GSL finals would be similarly close, with both players going for mostly standard play due to the lack of preparation time for this specific match-up. While this is close to a 50/50 in my view (Aligulac gives Maru a 52.76% chance to win), I’ll give Maru the slight edge due to his unprecedented legacy of success in the GSL.

Prediction: Maru 4 – 3 herO

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