It finally happened! For the first time all year there was no movement in our top 7. Iowa, however, was not so lucky at #8. Getting blown-out at home against Purdue as a double-digit favorite is a sure-fire way to fall out of our Top 10. Florida couldn’t take care of an LSU program looking more like a tire fire than football team, while Iowa State and Auburn did enough on the road to hop right back into the mix.
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It is a rarity when our overrated and underrated teams do battle the week that they’re featured in our column but that’s what we have here. Take from it what you will.
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Without further adieu…
Bet the Board Top 10 Week 8:
1.) Georgia
2.) Alabama
3.) Ohio State
4.) Oklahoma
5.) Michigan
6.) Penn State
7.) Cincinnati
8.) Ole Miss
9.) Iowa State
10.) Auburn
Overrated: Oklahoma State Cowboys
Given their lofty status in the AP poll it has to be a stunning revelation to the average college football fan that the Cowboys could be a 7-point underdog to Iowa State. We’ll reiterate what we’ve said for years around here; the betting market sifts through the narrative and tells a more accurate story than the popularity polls.
Return Resident
Since their last visit to our overrated column, the Pokes have only played one game. That would be last week’s win against Texas where for the sake of transparency they caught plenty of attention in the betting market. Any road win in conference as an underdog is impressive, even if your are the beneficiary of a +1 turnover margin (a pick six!) that doesn’t include a Longhorn turnover on downs. But Oklahoma State had just a 24% postgame win expectancy.
It’s all about the D
The defense continues to lead the way for Oklahoma State, ranking inside the Top 10 no matter whose efficiency ratings you choose to frequent. However, once again we’re seeing this offense struggle to meet expectations. They managed a measly 4.8 yards per play against Texas and are now outside the Top 80 in overall efficiency according to S&P+. Its never a promising sign for your program when you’re the undefeated team that is constantly “finding ways to win”, especially vs. a strength of schedule that is well outside the Top 25. It doesn’t get any easier for this Oklahoma State offense Saturday as they head to Ames to take on our underrated team and a Top 15 defense in…
Underrated: Iowa State Cyclones
With two losses already on their resume we’re not surprised that the Cyclones aren’t getting love from pollsters. Everyone knows we have a soft spot in our heart for coach Matt Campbell although in this case it’s well deserved! We currently have Iowa State INSIDE the Top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they are a net +2.6 yards per play on the year.
Misleading Boxes
In Iowa State’s first loss of the year against Iowa they finished a -4 in the turnover department, rendering them helpless although they out-gained the Hawkeyes by 160+ yards. During their road loss to Baylor, the Cyclones once again owned the boxscore. Brock Purdy and company accumulated 12 more first downs and almost 200+ yards of offense in the losing effort. Iowa State settled for FG’s and couldn’t punch it in when it mattered allowing a punt return TD along the way just for added effect.
Measuring Stick Matchup
Oklahoma State is a decent test for where this ISU program needs to go under Matt Campbell. These are the types of games Iowa State MUST win if they want to be a national contender in the near future. Brock Purdy has to take that next step and make the “big play” to beat a stingy Cowboys defense. If Purdy can avoid the big mistake and perform better than a game manager, Iowa State is a legitimate Top 10 team. We’ve seen the opening number move from -6 to -7 for this much anticipated matchup and that isn’t recreational bettors driving the price up.
