This week’s slate is loaded with ugly ducklings. There are SEVEN games with point spreads of -7 or greater. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t find value within some of these larger numbers.
Tennessee at New York Jets +7 (-110):
The look-ahead line at FanDuel listed Tennessee road favorites of just under a touchdown. Following the Titans win Sunday and a shutout loss for the Jets at Denver, Tennessee re-opened at -7.5. That’s a full point move through the second most important number in football. However, that price didn’t last long with hooks getting gobbled up by professional bettors settling in at a prevailing market price of -7.
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Buyer Beware
It is very possible that the Titans could be without both AJ Brown and Julio Jones Sunday. At the very least, both of them won’t be 100% if they try to gut things out. Brown’s status seems more tenuous than Jones given the fickle lingering nature of a hamstring problem. Without their top two wideouts, we could see an emphasis placed on the run game to carry this offense. Herein lies the issue: New York doesn’t have a lot of strengths but their front 7 and more specifically the defensive line is a strength.
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Ferocious Front
Pro Football Focus’ top graded Jets are Folorunso Fatukasi, John Franklin-Meyers, and Bryce Huff. Notice we didn’t even mention run stuffer Quinnen Williams, who leads the team in sacks. The Jets rank 4th in pass rush win rate and 5th in run stop win rate. If they can corral Henry and hit him behind the line of scrimmage, this defense has a real chance to cause some havoc against an offensive line that is bottom third in both adjusted line yards and sack %.
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Light at the end of the Tunnel
The other matchup in this game worth watching is the Jets much maligned offense against the Titans defense. New York has faced some of the best front 7’s in all of football to start the season. Carolina, New England, and Denver combined to sack Zack Wilson 15 times this season! New York now faces a defensive front ranked 28th in defensive rush success rate, an area that the Jets might actually exploit. If New York can keep this game close early, a more balanced game-script down the stretch would help mitigate a pass first mentality we’ve seen from the Jets in 2nd halves. I don’t expect the 7’s to last here, especially if the injury concerns for the Titans receiver group gets worse. Both the New York Jets +7 and first half +4 (with even a dabble on the ML) makes sense here for value seekers.
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Baltimore +1 (-110) at Denver:
The Ravens were listed as -1.5 point favorites on the look-ahead line. However, they opened a +1.5-point dog on Sunday night after barely escaping the Lions in improbable fashion. Baltimore needed a 66 yard field goal from Justin Tucker following a 4th and 19 conversion to win in Detroit as more than a touchdown favorite. Fortunately, Baltimore gets a few defensive starters back this week after their removal from the reserve list.
Broncos Blowouts
Meanwhile the Broncos have looked the part of an undefeated team, handling the Jets 26-0 with relative ease. That victory also marked the 2nd straight game of not allowing a single opponent drive to penetrate their red zone. Denver has played really good football to start the year albeit at the hands of 3 teams without a victory between them. Baltimore is by far their toughest opponent to date.
Injuries Mounting
Denver is likely to be shorthanded come Sunday. Both guards, Dalton Risner and Graham Glasnow are already questionable for the game, and the early week sentiment is that both are longshots for Sunday. Denver was already down Jerry Jeudy and now KJ Hamler’s out for the season with a torn ACL. Defensively things aren’t much better, as Ronald Darby, Bradley Chubb, and Josey Jewell are all injured with Jewell’s injury season ending. If there is a team that will test that limited depth it’s Baltimore.
Rinse and repeat for Ravens
The Ravens seem to be proficient at dealing with adversity over the past two seasons. Reinforcements might be waiting in the wings for the Ravens with receivers Rashod Bateman and Miles Boykin both coming off IR this week. The defensive line members who were on the reserve list (Justin Houston, Justin Madubuike, and Brandon Williams) are all back this week meaning that talented front 7 is fully intact for a pivotal AFC matchup.
Matchup Mishap
Denver is 15th in defensive rush success rate against the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets. Now enter the Ravens league leading attack. Denver has excelled early; building leads and by the 4th quarter using their talented defensive line and secondary to force quarterbacks to play right into their strength. Baltimore is no stranger to close games, comebacks, and high stress situations meaning a tight game won’t rattle this team. How Denver holds up in late game situations has yet to be revealed. We’ll get a much better indication of what this team is made of come Sunday. I fully expect this line to trend towards Baltimore as short road favorites before kickoff.
Week 5 Look-Ahead Lines via FanDuel Sportsbook
La Rams -1.5 at Seattle
New York Jets at Atlanta -4
Philadelphia at Carolina -3.5
Miami at Tampa Bay -10
New Orleans -1.5 at Washington
Tennessee -7.5 at Jacksonville
Detroit at Minnesota -7.5
Denver -1.5 at Pittsburgh
Green Bay -3.5 at Cincinnati
New England -7 at Houston
Chicago at Las Vegas -6.5
Cleveland at LA Chargers -1
NY Giants at Dallas -8
San Francisco at Arizona -1.5
Buffalo at Kansas City -3.5
Indianapolis at Baltimore -6.5
