Through 5 full weeks of football the pretenders and contenders are starting to distance themselves. Our first NFL Week 6 Line Move touches on a first half total that still offers value after a large full game move early in the week. One of the best games of the week takes place in Cleveland, where the Browns get the chance to spoil the Cardinals undefeated season exploiting a trench advantage.
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Minnesota at Carolina 1H Under 23 (-115):
The total for a massive “must win” game in Vikings-Panthers opened at a peak of 48. Significant UNDER money entered the market early in the week, driving the full game total to as low as 45.5 at some shops. When first half numbers opened, 23 became the market’s starting point. We’re now seeing some of the sharper shops move to 22.5 flat as this appears to be quite a strong position from professional bettors.
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Viking Quest
VICTORY! Let’s start with the road team Vikings. Coming in at 23rd in overall offensive success rate against the 4th easiest schedule of opposing defenses isn’t the start we envisioned for what should be a high-powered offense. The main issue appears to be a leaky offensive line, a unit that ranks 21st in Pass Block Win Rate and 26th in adjusted line yards. Minnesota now faces its stiffest test to date against a Panthers defensive line ranked 1st in adjusted sack rate behind pressure created from Hasson Reddick and Brian Burns. Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins and his 3rd overall PFF passing grade is the only thing propping the Vikings offense up this year, but he’ll going up against the #1 defense in passing success rate with a dinged up Justin Jefferson and an aging Adam Thielen.
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Darnold Downer
On the other side of the ball, Carolina’s offense looked off-kilter against the Eagles gaining just 3.8 yards per play with an insurmountable three interceptions. The Panthers are another team whose trench play up front on offense has been dreadful, ranking 24th in adjusted line yards, 24th in sack percentage, and 31st in pass block win rate. PFF has graded this offensive line 32nd in Pass Blocking. We’re not just talking about statistical outliers here. It looks like Cam Irving will be back but we’re not sure if that’s a good thing.
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Strength of Schedule Concerns
Carolina has played an overall schedule of defenses in the bottom 3rd of the league. Minnesota’s defensive line, which is 3rd in adjusted sack %, should pressure Sam Darnold all game. Both Carolina and Minnesota are in the bottom third in neutral situation pace. With a game lined right around pick, we could see the tempo a bit slower. If running back Dalvin Cook is upgraded, we could see this total tick up but I would be surprised if the 1H Under 23 (-110) was readily available at post.
Arizona at Cleveland -3 (-110):
Sportsbooks opened Cleveland a 3-point favorite on the Week 5 NFL look ahead lines. Cleveland loses a heartbreaker at the LA Chargers with a dominant ground game squandering a 27-13 lead in the 3rd quarter. Arizona wins and covers at home despite being outgained due to a 1 for 5 4th down effort from the 49ers including a stop at the 1-yard line. Fanduel re-opened Cleveland -2.5 and since that point, we’ve seen nothing but Browns money pummel the market. Cleveland is now out to -3 (-120) in some spots.
Spot Value
This is a tough scheduling spot for the Cardinals. Arizona will hit the road for their 3rd trip game in 4 weeks on the heels of back-to-back divisional games. Arizona is the last undefeated team in the NFL and this seems to be a decent spot to oppose them. Arizona’s offense has been a Top 10 unit all year, though they’ve certainly needed theatrics on 3rd down from MVP-leader Kyler Murray to sustain drives. Arizona will be challenged against a Browns defensive line ranked #2 in Pass Rush Win Rate and #1 in Run Stop Win Rate.
Match-up Mayhem
The concern I have with Arizona this week isn’t just the injury report but the matchup. Chandler Jones (reserve list), Rodney Hudson (ruled out), and Maxx Williams (season ending) are all expected to miss. CB Byron Murphy is dealing with a rib injury and there’s plenty of uncertainty on his status. If there is one thing a defense needs to do well to stop Cleveland, it’s stuff the run. Arizona ranks 28th in defensive rush success rate and now takes on Kareem Hunt behind an offensive line that ranks 2nd in adjusted line yards. It’s short and sweet with this handicap. The -2.5 move to -3 was extremely sharp, and even at -3 (-110) I cannot see a path to backing the Cardinals here. It’s the Brownies or pass at the current price.
Week 7 Look-Ahead Lines via FanDuel Sportsbook:
Denver at Cleveland -6
Cincinnati at Baltimore -6.5
Carolina -2.5 at NY Giants
Washington at Green Bay -7
Kansas City -3.5 at Tennessee
Atlanta at Miami -2.5
Jets at New England -7
Detroit at LA Rams -13.5
Philadelphia at Las Vegas -2
Chicago at Tampa Bay -10
Houston at Arizona -14.5
Indianapolis at San Francisco -5.5
New Orleans -3 at Seattle
